Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Buddy Hield
Atlanta Hawks current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER42.02025–26
NBA RANK#220of 409
PH$9.6MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN7.8governed role
NEXT GAME@ Orlando Magic2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-1.1 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN16.3
PTS7.8
REB2.3
AST1.4
STL0.8
BLK0.2
3PM1.5
FG%44.1%
3P%35.1%
FT%85.7%
+/--1.9
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Atlanta Hawks
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL21minutes
EXPECTED0.4pregame reference
DEVIATION+5198.8%expanded minutes
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G6.2 PTS · 0.6 REB · 0.6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G6.8 PTS · 3.2 REB · 1.8 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G3.1 PTS · 0.3 REB · 0.3 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G6.4 PTS · 2.9 REB · 1.3 AST
creation↑
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring↑
HOT historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS42.5%2634/6195
2-POINT50.2%1056/2103
3-POINT38.6%1578/4092
FREE THROW84.8%552/651
EFFECTIVE FG%55.3%
TRUE SHOOTING%57.1%
AST / TO1.64
PTS PER 3618.55rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 255 | 27.59 | 14.52 | 3.85 | 2.59 | 3.08 | 0.87 | 0.34 |
| Away | 260 | 28.17 | 14.21 | 4.1 | 2.67 | 3.05 | 0.94 | 0.33 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.6 | +0.3 | -0.3 | -0.1 | +0.0 | -0.1 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2.63 | high |
| minutes | 21 | 28.8 | 35.7 | 27.88 | low |
| points | 7 | 14 | 21 | 14.37 | high |
| rebounds | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3.97 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES91.8% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS10.2%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | @ MIA | 21 | 0.4 | +5198.8% | 31 | 12/18 | 5/7 | 7/11 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1.0 | 86% |
| 2026-03-23 | vs MEM | 7 | 2.43 | +188.3% | 3 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 3/3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +4.0 | 65% |
| 2026-03-21 | vs GSW | 4 | 1.81 | +120.6% | 0 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -7.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-20 | @ HOU | 8 | 0.41 | +1847.5% | 2 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +9.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-18 | @ DAL | 2 | — | — | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5.0 | — |
| 2026-02-09 | @ MIN | 5 | — | — | 0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4.0 | 0% |
| 2026-02-03 | vs PHI | 28 | — | — | 9 | 4/11 | 4/7 | 0/4 | 1/2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +6.0 | 38% |
| 2026-01-28 | @ UTA | 17 | — | — | 13 | 5/8 | 2/2 | 3/6 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -11.0 | 81% |
| 2026-01-26 | @ MIN | 29 | — | — | 5 | 2/10 | 1/6 | 1/4 | 0/2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -20.0 | 23% |
| 2026-01-25 | @ MIN | 17 | — | — | 4 | 2/5 | 2/2 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +11.0 | 40% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS6.1%3/49 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/49 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/49 games
2+ THREES40.8%20/49 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | GSWATL | 49 | 16.3 | 7.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 44.1% | 35.1% | 85.7% |
| 2024–25 | GSW | 79 | 22.8 | 10.9 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 41.1% | 36.1% | 82.5% |
| 2023–24 | INDPHI | 84 | 25.7 | 12.1 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 43.6% | 38.6% | 88.1% |
| 2022–23 | IND | 80 | 31.1 | 16.8 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 45.8% | 42.5% | 82.0% |
| 2021–22 | INDSAC | 81 | 30.9 | 15.6 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 40.6% | 36.6% | 87.4% |
| 2020–21 | SAC | 70 | 34.3 | 16.5 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 40.5% | 38.8% | 84.5% |
| 2019–20 | SAC | 72 | 30.8 | 19.2 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 42.9% | 39.4% | 84.6% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | ATL | 51 | 42.0 | #220 / 409 | 9.6M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | GSW | 92 | 37.1 | #311 / 422 | 9.8M | Depth |
| 2023–24 | PHI | 90 | 42.8 | #207 / 409 | 13.8M | Rotation |
| 2022–23 | IND | 80 | 48.9 | #109 / 408 | 20M | Core |
| 2021–22 | IND | 81 | 40.1 | #258 / 423 | 12.5M | Rotation |
| 2020–21 | SAC | 70 | 42.1 | #222 / 410 | 14M | Rotation |
| 2019–20 | SAC | 72 | 45.5 | #144 / 385 | 17.5M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER42.0descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#220of 409 ranked
PH$9.6MDepth
SAMPLE51observed games
Ball security59
Box defence44
Creation29
Efficiency48
Rebounding24
Scoring49
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+34.1 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+19.9 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-8.2 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY34-1.1 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
GSW
Golden State Warriors
EXPECTED MIN13.3
SCORING SHARE7.1%
CREATION SHARE5.0%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR72.0%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.
ATL
Atlanta Hawks
EXPECTED MIN2.0
SCORING SHARE1.5%
CREATION SHARE1.2%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR33.3%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.