CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

Jalen Johnson

Atlanta Hawks current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.

Atlanta Hawks · current teamFUSADuke

AF-PLAYER60.02025–26

NBA RANK#21of 409

PH$27.6MHigh Value · fictional game currency

STATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status

EXPECTED MIN27.6governed role

NEXT GAME@ Orlando Magic2026-10-21 WHAT IF IMPACT-1.5 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual

REGULAR-SEASON GAMES253

Player-safe accepted corpus.

CAREER PPG · CORPUS14.3

2019–20 through 2025–26 window.

CAREER RPG · CORPUS7.5

Historical window, not full NBA career.

CAREER APG · CORPUS4.1

Historical window, not full NBA career.

LATEST COMPLETED SEASON

2025–26

71 games

MIN35.3

PTS22.6

REB10.3

AST7.9

STL1.2

BLK0.4

3PM1.7

FG%48.8%

3P%35.0%

FT%78.9%

+/-+2.2

NEXT GAME

Current context

2026–27 · Atlanta Hawks

Assigned schedule

NBA Official roster

2026-10-21 · AWAY@ Orlando Magic50.6% winProjected 112–114

2026-10-23 · AWAY@ Charlotte Hornets42.8% winProjected 112–115

2026-10-24 · HOMEvs Houston Rockets55.0% winProjected 112–114

2026-10-26 · AWAY@ Houston Rockets40.4% winProjected 112–115

2026-10-28 · HOMEvs Miami Heat61.2% winProjected 114–116

E66 · PLAYER PROJECTION

Loading next-game projection…

PTS / REB / AST / 3PM use a separately validated player-stat model. Game Win, projected team score, Form and milestones keep their own authorities.

Current team Open Player What If

MINUTES + FORM

Role-adjusted performance

CURRENT FORM · 2026–27

Waiting for completed player boxscores

PRESEASON / NO SAMPLE

ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.

LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26

Historical Minutes Intelligence

DESCRIPTIVE · NOT CURRENT

Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.

LATEST ACTUAL0minutes

EXPECTED31.7pregame reference

DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown

LAST 5

ALL OBSERVED5 G10.2 PTS · 6.2 REB · 2.6 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G16.4 PTS · 10.4 REB · 6.2 AST

LAST 10

ALL OBSERVED10 G17.1 PTS · 7.6 REB · 5.4 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G20.7 PTS · 11.6 REB · 8.8 AST

creation↓

efficiency↓

minutes→

rebounding→

scoring↓

COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.

SPLITS + EFFICIENCY

How the production is built

EFFICIENCY

Shooting, derived from the box score

CAREER · 253 GAMES

2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.

FIELD GOALS49.7%1404/2825

2-POINT56.1%1137/2027

3-POINT33.5%267/798

FREE THROW75.2%551/733

EFFECTIVE FG%54.4%

TRUE SHOOTING%57.6%

AST / TO2.07

PTS PER 3619.08rate, not projection

HOME / AWAY

Where the games were played

127 HOME · 126 AWAY

Split	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK
Home	127	26.64	13.87	7.24	4.24	0.96	0.98	0.58
Away	126	27.44	14.8	7.66	3.9	1.15	1.02	0.6
Home − Away	—	-0.8	-0.9	-0.4	+0.3	-0.2	-0.0	-0.0

Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.

CONSISTENCY

What the average hides

253 GAMES

Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.

Category	Floor	Median	Ceiling	Mean	Volatility
assists	1	3	7	4.08	high
minutes	14	33	38	27.04	medium
points	5	14	23	14.33	high
rebounds	3	7	11	7.45	high

Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.

DOUBLE-DOUBLES

Observed frequency across the corpus

253 GAMES

DOUBLE-DOUBLES8834.8% of games

TRIPLE-DOUBLES155.9% of games

10+ ASSISTS218.3%

10+ BLOCKS00.0%

Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.

GAME LOG · 2025–26

One log, the window you choose

10 games

Date	Opp	MIN	EXP MIN	MIN Δ	PTS	FG	2P	3P	FT	OR	DR	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	+/-	TS%
2026-04-10	vs CLE	25	33.61	-25.6%	18	6/12	4/9	2/3	4/5	1	8	9	2	0	0	5	4	+25.0	63%
2026-04-08	@ CLE	34	33.87	+0.4%	12	4/16	4/11	0/5	4/4	2	9	11	6	1	0	2	6	-10.0	34%
2026-04-06	vs NYK	41	33.79	+21.3%	21	8/19	5/14	3/5	2/2	2	9	11	5	1	0	5	0	+3.0	53%
2026-04-01	@ ORL	34	29.63	+14.7%	18	8/17	8/13	0/4	2/3	0	14	14	8	1	1	3	3	+14.0	49%
2026-03-30	vs BOS	36	25.2	+42.9%	20	7/13	6/11	1/2	5/6	2	10	12	5	0	0	3	2	-8.0	64%
2026-03-28	vs SAC	37	24.67	+50%	26	11/21	7/10	4/11	0/0	0	5	5	10	1	0	4	0	+25.0	62%
2026-03-27	@ BOS	37	24.76	+49.4%	29	9/21	4/10	5/11	6/6	0	6	6	6	1	1	2	0	+6.0	61%
2026-03-25	@ DET	42	24.23	+73.4%	27	9/18	7/12	2/6	7/8	3	5	8	12	0	0	5	1	+2.0	63%
2026-03-20	@ HOU	32	33.84	-5.4%	14	6/12	4/6	2/6	0/0	0	5	5	3	1	0	4	1	-27.0	58%
2026-03-18	@ DAL	37	34.06	+8.6%	17	7/19	5/12	2/7	1/2	2	9	11	9	2	0	4	2	+4.0	43%

All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.

HISTORY

Season and milestone evidence

DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26

How often did the threshold occur?

historical frequency

These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.

20+ POINTS64.8%46/71 games

10+ REBOUNDS59.2%42/71 games

5+ ASSISTS90.1%64/71 games

2+ THREES52.1%37/71 games

SEASON HISTORY

Regular-season production

accepted player-safe games

Season	Team(s)	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
2025–26	ATL	71	35.3	22.6	10.3	7.9	48.8%	35.0%	78.9%
2024–25	ATL	36	35.7	18.9	10.0	5.0	49.9%	31.2%	74.6%
2023–24	ATL	56	33.7	16.0	8.7	3.6	51.1%	35.5%	72.8%
2022–23	ATL	69	15.1	5.7	4.1	1.2	49.1%	28.8%	62.8%
2021–22	ATL	21	5.7	2.5	1.2	0.1	53.7%	23.1%	71.4%

AF-PLAYER HISTORY

Season by season

Season	Team	G	AF-Player	Rank	PH$	Band
2025–26	ATL	77	60.0	#21 / 409	27.6M	High Value
2024–25	ATL	36	52.8	#86 / 422	17.6M	Core
2023–24	ATL	56	50.5	#109 / 409	17.8M	Core
2022–23	ATL	77	43.5	#191 / 408	11.2M	Rotation

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.

CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY

Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.

governed identity

Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.

Open team profile

IMPACT

Rating and role context

AF-PLAYER

Measured production, 2025–26

#21 OF 409

AF-PLAYER60.0descriptive index, not a win probability

NBA RANK#21of 409 ranked

PH$27.6MHigh Value

SAMPLE77observed games

Ball security

Box defence

Creation

Efficiency

Rebounding

Scoring

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.

E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Distinct signals, side by side

descriptive · current role + historical rating

Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.

VALUE OVER ROLE+36.0 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct

AF MOVEMENT+15.3 pp2024–25 → 2025–26

ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-7.7 min vs latest observed MPG

STAR DEPENDENCY90-1.5 pp next-game What If impact

UNDERUSED BREAKOUT WATCH

Player movement Opportunities Compare players

Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.

PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26

Pregame role and with/without context

descriptive · not causal

Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.

ATL

Atlanta Hawks

EXPECTED MIN30.4

SCORING SHARE18.9%

CREATION SHARE25.6%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR78.5%

-3.37 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 50 normal-load / 8 nonparticipation games.