Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Gabe Vincent
Atlanta Hawks current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER27.22025–26
NBA RANK#396of 409
PH$5.7MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN11.2governed role
NEXT GAME@ Orlando Magic2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-1.3 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN16.7
PTS4.5
REB1.0
AST1.4
STL0.5
BLK0.0
3PM1.1
FG%36.4%
3P%35.1%
FT%87.0%
+/-+0.9
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Atlanta Hawks
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED13.18pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G2.6 PTS · 0.8 REB · 0.8 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G4.6 PTS · 1 REB · 0.8 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G3.3 PTS · 1.1 REB · 1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G3.9 PTS · 0.7 REB · 0.9 AST
creation↓
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring↑
HOT historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS39.4%794/2015
2-POINT50.1%337/673
3-POINT34.1%457/1342
FREE THROW83.4%166/199
EFFECTIVE FG%50.7%
TRUE SHOOTING%52.6%
AST / TO2.15
PTS PER 3611.98rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 166 | 20.41 | 6.92 | 1.53 | 2.01 | 1.43 | 0.76 | 0.12 |
| Away | 161 | 20.21 | 6.6 | 1.43 | 1.89 | 1.37 | 0.67 | 0.08 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1.95 | high |
| minutes | 13.1 | 20 | 28 | 20.31 | medium |
| points | 2 | 5 | 11 | 6.76 | high |
| rebounds | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1.48 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES10.3% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS10.3%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | vs CLE | 14 | 14.72 | -4.9% | 3 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +8.0 | 50% |
| 2026-04-08 | @ CLE | 15 | 14.11 | +6.3% | 10 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 3/3 | 1/3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 116% |
| 2026-04-06 | vs NYK | 10 | 14.21 | -29.6% | 0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% |
| 2026-04-01 | @ ORL | 12 | 14.65 | -18.1% | 5 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 2/2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +5.0 | 87% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs BOS | 14 | 14.7 | -4.8% | 2 | 1/3 | 1/1 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2.0 | 33% |
| 2026-03-28 | vs SAC | 25 | 13.24 | +88.8% | 2 | 1/3 | 1/2 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -8.0 | 33% |
| 2026-03-27 | @ BOS | 12 | 12.83 | -6.5% | 3 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 38% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ DET | 11 | 12.7 | -13.4% | 8 | 3/6 | 1/2 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +12.0 | 67% |
| 2026-03-23 | vs MEM | 16 | 11.9 | +34.4% | 5 | 1/4 | 0/1 | 1/3 | 2/2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +4.0 | 51% |
| 2026-03-21 | vs GSW | 13 | 12.76 | +1.9% | 2 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 2/2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -12.0 | 35% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/51 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/51 games
5+ ASSISTS2.0%1/51 games
2+ THREES31.4%16/51 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | LALATL | 51 | 16.7 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 36.4% | 35.1% | 87.0% |
| 2024–25 | LAL | 71 | 21.2 | 6.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 40.3% | 35.9% | 68.4% |
| 2023–24 | LAL | 11 | 19.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 30.6% | 10.7% | 50.0% |
| 2022–23 | MIA | 68 | 25.8 | 9.4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 40.2% | 33.4% | 87.2% |
| 2021–22 | MIA | 67 | 23.5 | 8.8 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 41.9% | 37.0% | 81.5% |
| 2020–21 | MIA | 50 | 13.1 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 37.8% | 30.9% | 87.0% |
| 2019–20 | MIA | 9 | 9.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 21.6% | 22.2% | — |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | ATL | 57 | 27.2 | #396 / 409 | 5.7M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | LAL | 76 | 28.1 | #404 / 422 | 6.4M | Depth |
| 2022–23 | MIA | 92 | 29.0 | #377 / 408 | 7.7M | Depth |
| 2021–22 | MIA | 86 | 34.3 | #346 / 423 | 8.3M | Depth |
| 2020–21 | MIA | 70 | 27.3 | #387 / 410 | 5.5M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER27.2descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#396of 409 ranked
PH$5.7MDepth
SAMPLE57observed games
Ball security63
Box defence20
Creation44
Efficiency27
Rebounding11
Scoring11
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-16.7 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-1.1 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-5.4 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY34-1.3 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
LAL
Los Angeles Lakers
EXPECTED MIN10.9
SCORING SHARE3.9%
CREATION SHARE5.9%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR54.6%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.
ATL
Atlanta Hawks
EXPECTED MIN11.4
SCORING SHARE3.1%
CREATION SHARE8.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR74.4%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.