Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Dyson Daniels
Atlanta Hawks current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER46.52025–26
NBA RANK#153of 409
PH$17.9MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN12.9governed role
NEXT GAME@ Orlando Magic2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-1.6 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN33.3
PTS11.9
REB6.9
AST5.9
STL1.9
BLK0.4
3PM0.3
FG%51.6%
3P%18.3%
FT%61.5%
+/-+3.7
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Atlanta Hawks
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED32.07pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G7.2 PTS · 5.8 REB · 4.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G11.6 PTS · 8.2 REB · 6.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G9.1 PTS · 6.6 REB · 3.9 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G13 PTS · 7.1 REB · 5.6 AST
creation↑
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS48.8%1074/2201
2-POINT55.3%904/1634
3-POINT30.0%170/567
FREE THROW61.8%218/353
EFFECTIVE FG%52.7%
TRUE SHOOTING%53.8%
AST / TO2.65
PTS PER 3612.31rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 134 | 27.34 | 9.67 | 5.16 | 4.01 | 0.72 | 2.02 | 0.37 |
| Away | 135 | 27.81 | 9.19 | 5.05 | 3.91 | 0.54 | 1.68 | 0.51 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.5 | +0.5 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.3 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3.96 | high |
| minutes | 19 | 31 | 36 | 27.57 | medium |
| points | 3 | 9 | 15 | 9.43 | high |
| rebounds | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5.11 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES259.3% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES20.7% of games
10+ ASSISTS103.7%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | vs CLE | 30 | 28.32 | +5.9% | 13 | 6/10 | 6/9 | 0/1 | 1/2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +36.0 | 60% |
| 2026-04-08 | @ CLE | 33 | 27.98 | +17.9% | 12 | 5/11 | 4/8 | 1/3 | 1/2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -5.0 | 51% |
| 2026-04-06 | vs NYK | 38 | 28.48 | +33.4% | 11 | 4/11 | 3/8 | 1/3 | 2/4 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | +1.0 | 43% |
| 2026-04-01 | @ ORL | 31 | 27.52 | +12.6% | 15 | 5/11 | 4/9 | 1/2 | 4/4 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +19.0 | 59% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs BOS | 38 | 25.54 | +48.8% | 18 | 8/11 | 6/8 | 2/3 | 0/1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +8.0 | 79% |
| 2026-03-27 | @ BOS | 32 | 29.96 | +6.8% | 6 | 3/8 | 3/7 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +11.0 | 38% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ DET | 43 | 29.23 | +47.1% | 16 | 8/14 | 8/13 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -11.0 | 57% |
| 2026-03-23 | vs MEM | 24 | 29.97 | -19.9% | 12 | 5/8 | 3/5 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +27.0 | 75% |
| 2026-03-21 | vs GSW | 32 | 25.98 | +23.2% | 28 | 12/17 | 10/12 | 2/5 | 2/2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +35.0 | 78% |
| 2026-03-20 | @ HOU | 25 | 27.32 | -8.5% | 3 | 1/5 | 1/5 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -14.0 | 26% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS8.0%6/75 games
10+ REBOUNDS13.3%10/75 games
5+ ASSISTS61.3%46/75 games
2+ THREES4.0%3/75 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | ATL | 81 | 46.5 | #153 / 409 | 17.9M | Core |
| 2024–25 | ATL | 77 | 43.5 | #210 / 422 | 14.9M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | NOP | 65 | 35.2 | #331 / 409 | 7.4M | Depth |
| 2022–23 | NOP | 59 | 28.2 | #384 / 408 | 5.8M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER46.5descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#153of 409 ranked
PH$17.9MCore
SAMPLE81observed games
Ball security51
Box defence55
Creation82
Efficiency33
Rebounding48
Scoring26
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+38.1 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+12.4 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-19.9 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY78-1.6 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
ATL
Atlanta Hawks
EXPECTED MIN30.0
SCORING SHARE9.7%
CREATION SHARE19.0%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR82.4%
+8.55 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 70 normal-load / 6 nonparticipation games.