Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Keon Ellis
Brooklyn Nets current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER33.52025–26
NBA RANK#346of 409
PH$7.3MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN42.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Charlotte Hornets2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN19.8
PTS6.4
REB1.8
AST0.9
STL1.1
BLK0.6
3PM1.2
FG%43.0%
3P%36.1%
FT%73.1%
+/--2.4
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Brooklyn Nets
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED21.85pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G1.4 PTS · 0.8 REB · 0.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G4.6 PTS · 2 REB · 1 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G4.5 PTS · 1.1 REB · 0.6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G5.9 PTS · 2.3 REB · 1.1 AST
creation↓
efficiency↓
minutes↓
rebounding→
scoring↓
COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS46.3%484/1045
2-POINT58.8%188/320
3-POINT40.8%296/725
FREE THROW78.1%150/192
EFFECTIVE FG%60.5%
TRUE SHOOTING%62.6%
AST / TO1.86
PTS PER 3611.97rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 106 | 20.14 | 6.88 | 2.22 | 1.31 | 1.45 | 1.16 | 0.61 |
| Away | 110 | 19.26 | 6.23 | 1.99 | 1.17 | 1.29 | 1.15 | 0.58 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.9 | +0.7 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.24 | high |
| minutes | 10 | 20 | 28 | 19.69 | high |
| points | 1 | 5 | 11 | 6.55 | high |
| rebounds | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2.1 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | @ ATL | 19 | 24.63 | -22.9% | 2 | 1/4 | 1/2 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -23.0 | 25% |
| 2026-04-08 | vs ATL | 22 | 24.61 | -10.6% | 5 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 1/4 | 2/2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2.0 | 51% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ GSW | 22 | 24.55 | -10.4% | 4 | 2/7 | 2/5 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6.0 | 29% |
| 2026-03-31 | @ LAL | 19 | 25.56 | -25.7% | 7 | 2/6 | 1/2 | 1/4 | 2/2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -11.0 | 51% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs MIA | 25 | 25.75 | -2.9% | 10 | 4/5 | 2/2 | 2/3 | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +9.0 | 92% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs MIA | 37 | 22.74 | +62.7% | 17 | 5/12 | 4/5 | 1/7 | 6/6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -13.0 | 58% |
| 2026-03-24 | vs ORL | 20 | 24.06 | -16.9% | 2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ NOP | 23 | 23.79 | -3.3% | 7 | 2/6 | 2/3 | 0/3 | 3/4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +13.0 | 45% |
| 2026-03-19 | @ CHI | 27 | 23 | +17.4% | 8 | 2/6 | 2/3 | 0/3 | 4/4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6.0 | 52% |
| 2026-03-17 | @ MIL | 24 | 24.91 | -3.7% | 8 | 3/4 | 1/2 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +8.0 | 100% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS4.5%3/66 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/66 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/66 games
2+ THREES28.8%19/66 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | CLE | 78 | 33.5 | #346 / 409 | 7.3M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | SAC | 80 | 48.1 | #147 / 422 | 16.6M | Core |
| 2023–24 | SAC | 58 | 44.6 | #178 / 409 | 11.9M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER33.5descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#346of 409 ranked
PH$7.3MDepth
SAMPLE78observed games
Ball security66
Box defence62
Creation13
Efficiency47
Rebounding11
Scoring17
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-79.8 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-49.9 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+24.1 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
CLE
Cleveland Cavaliers
EXPECTED MIN15.7
SCORING SHARE5.0%
CREATION SHARE3.9%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR75.0%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.
SAC
Sacramento Kings
EXPECTED MIN13.1
SCORING SHARE5.0%
CREATION SHARE2.3%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR71.7%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.