Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Jaylon Tyson
Cleveland Cavaliers current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER45.82025–26
NBA RANK#164of 409
PH$15.6MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN18.6governed role
NEXT GAME@ Philadelphia 76ers2026-10-22WHAT IF IMPACT+0.4 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN26.9
PTS13.4
REB5.2
AST2.2
STL0.8
BLK0.4
3PM2.0
FG%50.0%
3P%44.9%
FT%73.7%
+/-+1.7
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Cleveland Cavaliers
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED5.8pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G3 PTS · 0.8 REB · 0.6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G13.6 PTS · 6.2 REB · 2.4 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G1.5 PTS · 0.4 REB · 0.3 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G13.1 PTS · 5.4 REB · 2.2 AST
creation→
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS48.6%369/759
2-POINT52.4%226/431
3-POINT43.6%143/328
FREE THROW74.8%89/119
EFFECTIVE FG%58.0%
TRUE SHOOTING%59.8%
AST / TO1.6
PTS PER 3616.77rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 50 | 20.6 | 9.64 | 4.2 | 1.82 | 1.46 | 0.46 | 0.4 |
| Away | 55 | 19.13 | 8.87 | 3.73 | 1.55 | 1.27 | 0.71 | 0.18 |
| Home − Away | — | +1.5 | +0.8 | +0.5 | +0.3 | +0.2 | -0.3 | +0.2 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1.68 | high |
| minutes | 7 | 22 | 31 | 19.83 | high |
| points | 1.6 | 8 | 16 | 9.24 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 4 | 6 | 3.95 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES87.6% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | @ ATL | 24 | 1.64 | +1364% | 15 | 7/15 | 7/10 | 0/5 | 1/2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -10.0 | 47% |
| 2026-03-19 | @ CHI | 23 | 19.7 | +16.8% | 18 | 8/14 | 6/10 | 2/4 | 0/2 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1.0 | 61% |
| 2026-03-17 | @ MIL | 13 | 23.52 | -44.7% | 2 | 1/5 | 1/3 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5.0 | 20% |
| 2026-03-13 | @ DAL | 20 | 25.94 | -22.9% | 8 | 3/6 | 1/3 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +16.0 | 67% |
| 2026-03-11 | @ ORL | 18 | 27.88 | -35.4% | 4 | 1/4 | 1/3 | 0/1 | 2/2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4.0 | 41% |
| 2026-03-09 | vs PHI | 21 | 29.38 | -28.5% | 11 | 4/11 | 1/5 | 3/6 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +10.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-08 | vs BOS | 25 | 28.76 | -13.1% | 8 | 3/8 | 1/2 | 2/6 | 0/0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -18.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-03 | vs DET | 32 | 26 | +23.1% | 22 | 8/15 | 3/3 | 5/12 | 1/3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | +8.0 | 67% |
| 2026-02-27 | @ DET | 41 | 23.6 | +73.7% | 15 | 5/10 | 1/3 | 4/7 | 1/2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -9.0 | 69% |
| 2026-02-25 | @ MIL | 35 | 21.36 | +63.8% | 14 | 5/16 | 4/10 | 1/6 | 3/3 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -19.0 | 40% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS12.7%8/63 games
10+ REBOUNDS11.1%7/63 games
5+ ASSISTS3.2%2/63 games
2+ THREES60.3%38/63 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | CLE | 80 | 45.8 | #164 / 409 | 15.6M | Core |
| 2024–25 | CLE | 46 | 36.5 | #321 / 422 | 6.3M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER45.8descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#164of 409 ranked
PH$15.6MCore
SAMPLE80observed games
Ball security56
Box defence29
Creation30
Efficiency57
Rebounding45
Scoring47
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+26.3 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+36.1 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-5.3 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY52+0.4 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
CLE
Cleveland Cavaliers
EXPECTED MIN20.5
SCORING SHARE10.0%
CREATION SHARE7.7%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR77.2%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.