Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Ja Morant
Portland Trail Blazers current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER47.42025–26
NBA RANK#140of 409
PH$11.9MRotation · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Phoenix Suns2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN28.4
PTS19.4
REB3.3
AST8.1
STL1.0
BLK0.3
3PM1.0
FG%41.0%
3P%23.5%
FT%89.7%
+/--2.5
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Portland Trail Blazers
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED0.42pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G18 PTS · 3.4 REB · 7.4 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G18 PTS · 3.4 REB · 7.4 AST
creation→
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring→
STEADY historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS46.6%2629/5644
2-POINT51.6%2198/4257
3-POINT31.1%431/1387
FREE THROW77.3%1614/2088
EFFECTIVE FG%50.4%
TRUE SHOOTING%55.6%
AST / TO2.18
PTS PER 3625.43rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 169 | 31.55 | 22.78 | 4.86 | 7.66 | 1.41 | 1.12 | 0.34 |
| Away | 157 | 31.9 | 21.99 | 4.36 | 7.17 | 1.23 | 0.93 | 0.21 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.3 | +0.8 | +0.5 | +0.5 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 5 | 7 | 10 | 7.42 | medium |
| minutes | 28 | 32 | 35.2 | 31.72 | low |
| points | 15 | 22 | 30 | 22.4 | medium |
| rebounds | 3 | 4 | 7 | 4.62 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES8325.5% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES123.7% of games
10+ ASSISTS8124.9%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | vs ATL | 30 | 8.81 | +240.3% | 23 | 7/15 | 6/11 | 1/4 | 8/8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1.0 | 62% |
| 2026-01-18 | vs ORL | 28 | 3.83 | +630.2% | 24 | 7/13 | 4/9 | 3/4 | 7/9 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +26.0 | 71% |
| 2026-01-02 | @ LAL | 31 | — | — | 16 | 7/18 | 7/15 | 0/3 | 2/3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -21.0 | 41% |
| 2025-12-30 | vs PHI | 34 | — | — | 40 | 16/22 | 16/20 | 0/2 | 8/10 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +11.0 | 76% |
| 2025-12-28 | @ WAS | 27 | — | — | 21 | 8/16 | 5/11 | 3/5 | 2/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -22.0 | 62% |
| 2025-12-26 | vs MIL | 25 | — | — | 17 | 6/11 | 6/11 | 0/0 | 5/6 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | +12.0 | 62% |
| 2025-12-15 | @ LAC | 21 | — | — | 12 | 4/12 | 3/10 | 1/2 | 3/3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -8.0 | 45% |
| 2025-12-12 | vs UTA | 25 | — | — | 21 | 7/20 | 5/15 | 2/5 | 5/7 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +1.0 | 46% |
| 2025-11-15 | @ CLE | 6 | — | — | 7 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 3/4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +4.0 | 93% |
| 2025-11-11 | @ NYK | 34 | — | — | 16 | 4/14 | 2/8 | 2/6 | 6/6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | -17.0 | 48% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS45.0%9/20 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/20 games
5+ ASSISTS80.0%16/20 games
2+ THREES35.0%7/20 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | MEM | 20 | 28.4 | 19.4 | 3.3 | 8.1 | 41.0% | 23.5% | 89.7% |
| 2024–25 | MEM | 49 | 30.4 | 23.1 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 45.4% | 30.6% | 82.2% |
| 2023–24 | MEM | 9 | 35.3 | 25.1 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 47.1% | 27.5% | 81.3% |
| 2022–23 | MEM | 61 | 32.0 | 26.2 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 46.6% | 30.7% | 74.9% |
| 2021–22 | MEM | 57 | 33.1 | 27.4 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 49.3% | 34.4% | 76.1% |
| 2020–21 | MEM | 63 | 32.6 | 19.1 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 44.9% | 30.3% | 72.9% |
| 2019–20 | MEM | 67 | 31.0 | 17.8 | 3.9 | 7.3 | 47.7% | 33.5% | 77.6% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | MEM | 20 | 47.4 | #140 / 409 | 11.9M | Rotation |
| 2024–25 | MEM | 54 | 52.7 | #87 / 422 | 18.9M | Core |
| 2022–23 | MEM | 66 | 57.7 | #36 / 408 | 23.5M | Core |
| 2021–22 | MEM | 67 | 61.3 | #17 / 423 | 26.3M | High Value |
| 2020–21 | MEM | 70 | 51.2 | #99 / 410 | 21.2M | Core |
| 2019–20 | MEM | 68 | 50.6 | #90 / 385 | 20.6M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER47.4descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#140of 409 ranked
PH$11.9MRotation
SAMPLE20observed games
Ball security44
Box defence36
Creation72
Efficiency32
Rebounding22
Scoring79
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT-13.6 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-28.4 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
MEM
Memphis Grizzlies
EXPECTED MIN13.0
SCORING SHARE15.8%
CREATION SHARE26.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR48.0%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.