Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Naz Reid
Charlotte Hornets current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER45.12025–26
NBA RANK#176of 409
PH$16MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN35.2governed role
NEXT GAME@ Brooklyn Nets2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-1.7 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN26.1
PTS13.5
REB6.3
AST2.3
STL1.0
BLK1.0
3PM2.1
FG%45.3%
3P%35.9%
FT%73.0%
+/-+2.1
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Charlotte Hornets
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED21.14pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G4.2 PTS · 2.4 REB · 0.6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G9.4 PTS · 4.6 REB · 1.6 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G7.4 PTS · 4.2 REB · 0.9 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G9.9 PTS · 5.5 REB · 1.4 AST
creation↓
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring↓
COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS48.2%2139/4439
2-POINT56.6%1418/2504
3-POINT37.3%721/1935
FREE THROW73.0%658/901
EFFECTIVE FG%56.3%
TRUE SHOOTING%58.5%
AST / TO1.19
PTS PER 3619.76rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 237 | 21.66 | 11.76 | 5.35 | 1.47 | 1.57 | 0.74 | 1.03 |
| Away | 239 | 21.63 | 12 | 4.82 | 1.49 | 1.46 | 0.64 | 0.82 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.0 | -0.2 | +0.5 | -0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.48 | high |
| minutes | 14.5 | 22 | 28 | 21.65 | medium |
| points | 6 | 11 | 17 | 11.88 | high |
| rebounds | 3 | 5 | 7 | 5.09 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES336.9% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | @ ORL | 24 | 26.03 | -7.8% | 15 | 6/11 | 5/6 | 1/5 | 2/3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +4.0 | 61% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs CHA | 25 | 26.21 | -4.6% | 6 | 3/14 | 3/10 | 0/4 | 0/0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12.0 | 21% |
| 2026-04-03 | @ PHI | 29 | 22.61 | +28.3% | 12 | 5/14 | 4/8 | 1/6 | 1/1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -8.0 | 42% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ DET | 31 | 20.84 | +48.8% | 19 | 6/16 | 2/7 | 4/9 | 3/4 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +5.0 | 54% |
| 2026-03-28 | vs DET | 24 | 21.01 | +14.2% | 8 | 3/15 | 3/8 | 0/7 | 2/3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -22.0 | 25% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs HOU | 31 | 20.65 | +50.1% | 14 | 5/13 | 3/8 | 2/5 | 2/2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-22 | @ BOS | 26 | 20.49 | +26.9% | 11 | 4/12 | 3/8 | 1/4 | 2/2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +26.0 | 43% |
| 2026-03-17 | vs PHX | 18 | 24.18 | -25.6% | 11 | 3/5 | 2/2 | 1/3 | 4/4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +10.0 | 81% |
| 2026-03-15 | @ OKC | 28 | 23.61 | +18.6% | 6 | 1/5 | 1/2 | 0/3 | 4/4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -4.0 | 44% |
| 2026-03-13 | @ GSW | 27 | 23.24 | +16.2% | 12 | 5/9 | 4/8 | 1/1 | 1/2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +5.0 | 61% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS16.2%12/74 games
10+ REBOUNDS10.8%8/74 games
5+ ASSISTS8.1%6/74 games
2+ THREES56.8%42/74 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | MIN | 74 | 26.1 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 45.3% | 35.9% | 73.0% |
| 2024–25 | MIN | 76 | 27.6 | 14.4 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 46.5% | 39.0% | 79.1% |
| 2023–24 | MIN | 81 | 24.3 | 13.5 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 47.7% | 41.4% | 74.0% |
| 2022–23 | MIN | 68 | 18.4 | 11.5 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 53.7% | 34.6% | 67.7% |
| 2021–22 | MIN | 77 | 15.8 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 48.9% | 34.3% | 76.5% |
| 2020–21 | MIN | 70 | 19.2 | 11.2 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 52.3% | 35.1% | 69.3% |
| 2019–20 | MIN | 30 | 16.5 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 41.1% | 33.0% | 69.8% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | MIN | 86 | 45.1 | #176 / 409 | 16M | Core |
| 2024–25 | MIN | 91 | 47.8 | #156 / 422 | 17.6M | Core |
| 2023–24 | MIN | 97 | 46.5 | #155 / 409 | 16.8M | Core |
| 2022–23 | MIN | 68 | 54.5 | #56 / 408 | 18.8M | Core |
| 2021–22 | MIN | 83 | 50.2 | #102 / 423 | 17.1M | Core |
| 2020–21 | MIN | 70 | 53.9 | #69 / 410 | 19M | Core |
| 2019–20 | MIN | 38 | 45.3 | #148 / 385 | 11.1M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER45.1descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#176of 409 ranked
PH$16MCore
SAMPLE86observed games
Ball security54
Box defence53
Creation27
Efficiency43
Rebounding48
Scoring55
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-21.7 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-6.1 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+8.9 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY79-1.7 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
MIN
Minnesota Timberwolves
EXPECTED MIN24.4
SCORING SHARE11.1%
CREATION SHARE8.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR84.0%
+4.57 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 72 normal-load / 3 nonparticipation games.