Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Luka Garza
Boston Celtics current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER57.72025–26
NBA RANK#32of 409
PH$20.2MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN8.6governed role
NEXT GAME@ Detroit Pistons2026-10-20WHAT IF IMPACT-1.3 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN16.0
PTS8.2
REB4.0
AST0.9
STL0.4
BLK0.4
3PM0.8
FG%56.9%
3P%42.9%
FT%77.4%
+/-+1.3
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Boston Celtics
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL38minutes
EXPECTED8.35pregame reference
DEVIATION+355%expanded minutes
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G8.2 PTS · 3.6 REB · 0.6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G11.6 PTS · 4 REB · 1.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G8.6 PTS · 3.4 REB · 0.8 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G8.5 PTS · 3.6 REB · 0.9 AST
creation↑
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring↑
HOT historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS52.5%414/789
2-POINT61.3%311/507
3-POINT36.5%103/282
FREE THROW72.9%202/277
EFFECTIVE FG%59.0%
TRUE SHOOTING%62.2%
AST / TO1.16
PTS PER 3620.28rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 86 | 11.16 | 6.06 | 3 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Away | 100 | 10.51 | 6.12 | 2.5 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.7 | -0.1 | +0.5 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | high |
| minutes | 3 | 9.6 | 17.2 | 10.81 | high |
| points | 1 | 5 | 11 | 6.09 | high |
| rebounds | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2.73 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES42.1% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | vs ORL | 38 | 8.35 | +355% | 27 | 10/18 | 7/12 | 3/6 | 4/4 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +13.0 | 68% |
| 2026-04-10 | vs NOP | 16 | 9.66 | +65.6% | 14 | 6/13 | 6/10 | 0/3 | 2/3 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2.0 | 49% |
| 2026-04-01 | @ MIA | 15 | 17.08 | -12.2% | 12 | 5/10 | 3/6 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -10.0 | 60% |
| 2026-03-30 | @ ATL | 28 | 16.84 | +66.3% | 20 | 8/9 | 6/6 | 2/3 | 2/2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +6.0 | 101% |
| 2026-03-29 | @ CHA | 13 | 17.42 | -25.4% | 2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +8.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs ATL | 15 | 17.09 | -12.2% | 11 | 4/5 | 3/3 | 1/2 | 2/2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +10.0 | 94% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs OKC | 12 | 17.47 | -31.3% | 7 | 3/4 | 2/2 | 1/2 | 0/1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +9.0 | 79% |
| 2026-03-22 | vs MIN | 17 | 18 | -5.5% | 5 | 2/7 | 1/4 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4.0 | 36% |
| 2026-03-20 | @ MEM | 27 | 16.61 | +62.5% | 22 | 9/12 | 8/9 | 1/3 | 3/5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +9.0 | 78% |
| 2026-03-18 | vs GSW | 18 | 15.47 | +16.4% | 15 | 6/10 | 5/8 | 1/2 | 2/2 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +10.0 | 69% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS4.6%3/65 games
10+ REBOUNDS4.6%3/65 games
5+ ASSISTS1.5%1/65 games
2+ THREES21.5%14/65 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | BOS | 72 | 57.7 | #32 / 409 | 20.2M | Core |
| 2021–22 | DET | 57 | 43.9 | #194 / 423 | 9.9M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER57.7descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#32of 409 ranked
PH$20.2MCore
SAMPLE72observed games
Ball security53
Box defence30
Creation19
Efficiency87
Rebounding73
Scoring50
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+78.2 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT—two eligible completed seasons required
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-6.7 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY81-1.3 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
BOS
Boston Celtics
EXPECTED MIN12.8
SCORING SHARE6.7%
CREATION SHARE3.5%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR75.1%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.