Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Austin Reaves
Los Angeles Lakers current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER56.82025–26
NBA RANK#36of 409
PH$24.3MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN42.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Golden State Warriors2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.3 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN34.6
PTS23.3
REB4.7
AST5.5
STL1.1
BLK0.4
3PM2.3
FG%48.9%
3P%36.0%
FT%87.1%
+/-+3.6
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Los Angeles Lakers
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED16pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G24 PTS · 4.8 REB · 5.4 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G10.4 PTS · 2.2 REB · 2.7 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G22.8 PTS · 4.7 REB · 5.9 AST
creation↓
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS48.3%1702/3526
2-POINT58.5%1096/1875
3-POINT36.7%606/1651
FREE THROW86.4%1192/1379
EFFECTIVE FG%56.9%
TRUE SHOOTING%62.9%
AST / TO2.31
PTS PER 3618.53rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 167 | 30.39 | 15.87 | 3.93 | 4.51 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.33 |
| Away | 161 | 31.25 | 15.84 | 3.94 | 4.43 | 1.9 | 0.79 | 0.3 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.9 | +0.0 | -0.0 | +0.1 | -0.1 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 2 | 4 | 7 | 4.47 | high |
| minutes | 25.5 | 32 | 37 | 30.81 | low |
| points | 8 | 15 | 22 | 15.86 | high |
| rebounds | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3.94 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES267.9% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES30.9% of games
10+ ASSISTS226.7%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | @ OKC | 27 | 36.84 | -26.7% | 15 | 5/9 | 3/6 | 2/3 | 3/3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -23.0 | 73% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs CLE | 37 | 37.2 | -0.6% | 19 | 6/16 | 4/7 | 2/9 | 5/5 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +4.0 | 52% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs WAS | 27 | 39.39 | -31.5% | 19 | 4/11 | 4/7 | 0/4 | 11/12 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +6.0 | 58% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs BKN | 40 | 39 | +2.6% | 26 | 7/13 | 3/6 | 4/7 | 8/11 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +26.0 | 73% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ IND | 38 | 39.03 | -2.6% | 25 | 7/16 | 5/9 | 2/7 | 9/9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +14.0 | 63% |
| 2026-03-23 | @ DET | 40 | 39.22 | +2% | 24 | 7/15 | 5/9 | 2/6 | 8/9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -5.0 | 63% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ ORL | 40 | 38.93 | +2.7% | 26 | 10/20 | 8/12 | 2/8 | 4/4 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +8.0 | 60% |
| 2026-03-19 | @ MIA | 40 | 38.14 | +4.9% | 18 | 5/12 | 3/5 | 2/7 | 6/10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +13.0 | 55% |
| 2026-03-18 | @ HOU | 39 | 37.8 | +3.2% | 14 | 4/9 | 3/6 | 1/3 | 5/6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +6.0 | 60% |
| 2026-03-16 | @ HOU | 40 | 36.22 | +10.4% | 15 | 5/18 | 5/10 | 0/8 | 5/5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +11.0 | 37% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS52.9%27/51 games
10+ REBOUNDS3.9%2/51 games
5+ ASSISTS58.8%30/51 games
2+ THREES70.6%36/51 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | LAL | 57 | 56.8 | #36 / 409 | 24.3M | Core |
| 2024–25 | LAL | 77 | 54.2 | #73 / 422 | 23.5M | Core |
| 2023–24 | LAL | 89 | 52.3 | #88 / 409 | 22.4M | Core |
| 2022–23 | LAL | 81 | 51.9 | #80 / 408 | 21.9M | Core |
| 2021–22 | LAL | 64 | 42.6 | #218 / 423 | 11.7M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER56.8descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#36of 409 ranked
PH$24.3MCore
SAMPLE57observed games
Ball security50
Box defence28
Creation56
Efficiency72
Rebounding18
Scoring80
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-3.8 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+8.5 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+7.2 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY57-0.3 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
LAL
Los Angeles Lakers
EXPECTED MIN24.1
SCORING SHARE20.4%
CREATION SHARE23.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR65.9%
+1.84 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 26 normal-load / 6 nonparticipation games.