Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Mike Conley
Boston Celtics current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER35.02025–26
NBA RANK#330of 409
PH$7.1MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN18.2governed role
NEXT GAME@ Detroit Pistons2026-10-20WHAT IF IMPACT-0.8 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN18.7
PTS4.7
REB1.8
AST2.9
STL0.6
BLK0.3
3PM1.1
FG%33.7%
3P%34.0%
FT%90.0%
+/-+0.0
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Boston Celtics
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED13.21pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G4 PTS · 0.6 REB · 0.8 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G1.4 PTS · 2.4 REB · 1.8 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G4.2 PTS · 1.1 REB · 1.8 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G2.4 PTS · 1.8 REB · 2.1 AST
creation↓
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring↓
COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS42.5%1654/3891
2-POINT45.7%770/1686
3-POINT40.1%884/2205
FREE THROW84.9%721/849
EFFECTIVE FG%53.9%
TRUE SHOOTING%57.6%
AST / TO3.61
PTS PER 3615.11rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 212 | 27.28 | 11.61 | 2.84 | 5.29 | 2.11 | 1.12 | 0.25 |
| Away | 218 | 27.18 | 11.24 | 2.77 | 5.15 | 2 | 1.06 | 0.19 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 3 | 5 | 7.2 | 5.22 | high |
| minutes | 23 | 28.2 | 32 | 27.23 | low |
| points | 5 | 11 | 17 | 11.43 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2.8 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES204.7% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS286.5%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | @ HOU | 24 | 12.23 | +96.3% | 9 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +17.0 | 150% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs CHA | 22 | 12.47 | +76.5% | 11 | 3/6 | 0/1 | 3/5 | 2/2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4.0 | 80% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ DET | 22 | 9.24 | +138.1% | 14 | 4/8 | 0/1 | 4/7 | 2/2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -12.0 | 79% |
| 2026-03-28 | vs DET | 22 | 5.87 | +274.8% | 3 | 1/5 | 0/0 | 1/5 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8.0 | 30% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs HOU | 29 | — | — | 5 | 2/6 | 1/1 | 1/5 | 0/0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2.0 | 42% |
| 2026-02-26 | @ LAC | 3 | 4.04 | -25.7% | 0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4.0 | 0% |
| 2026-02-22 | vs PHI | 15 | 1.68 | +793.7% | 0 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -7.0 | 0% |
| 2026-02-02 | @ MEM | 14 | 16.33 | -14.3% | 0 | 0/3 | 0/1 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -13.0 | 0% |
| 2026-01-31 | @ MEM | 18 | 15.6 | +15.3% | 0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +18.0 | 0% |
| 2026-01-28 | @ DAL | 23 | — | — | 6 | 2/6 | 0/1 | 2/5 | 0/0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +6.0 | 50% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/51 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/51 games
5+ ASSISTS21.6%11/51 games
2+ THREES29.4%15/51 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | MIN | 51 | 18.7 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 33.7% | 34.0% | 90.0% |
| 2024–25 | MIN | 67 | 24.6 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 39.5% | 40.1% | 90.1% |
| 2023–24 | MIN | 76 | 28.8 | 11.4 | 2.9 | 5.9 | 45.6% | 44.2% | 90.9% |
| 2022–23 | UTAMIN | 67 | 30.2 | 11.9 | 2.7 | 6.7 | 42.8% | 38.5% | 83.4% |
| 2021–22 | UTA | 71 | 28.6 | 13.6 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 43.4% | 40.5% | 79.8% |
| 2020–21 | UTA | 51 | 29.4 | 16.2 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 44.4% | 41.2% | 85.2% |
| 2019–20 | UTA | 47 | 29.0 | 14.4 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 40.9% | 37.5% | 82.7% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | MIN | 63 | 35.0 | #330 / 409 | 7.1M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | MIN | 82 | 39.0 | #286 / 422 | 10.4M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | MIN | 91 | 52.5 | #87 / 409 | 22M | Core |
| 2022–23 | MIN | 74 | 48.8 | #113 / 408 | 18.7M | Core |
| 2021–22 | UTA | 77 | 49.6 | #109 / 423 | 19.8M | Core |
| 2020–21 | UTA | 57 | 56.9 | #41 / 410 | 22.6M | Core |
| 2019–20 | UTA | 52 | 44.8 | #154 / 385 | 14.2M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER35.0descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#330of 409 ranked
PH$7.1MDepth
SAMPLE63observed games
Ball security57
Box defence32
Creation76
Efficiency33
Rebounding9
Scoring9
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-13.8 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-12.9 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGESTABLE+0.5 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY30-0.8 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
MIN
Minnesota Timberwolves
EXPECTED MIN12.9
SCORING SHARE3.5%
CREATION SHARE10.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR65.8%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.