Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Jrue Holiday
Portland Trail Blazers current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER46.32025–26
NBA RANK#158of 409
PH$15.1MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN42.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Phoenix Suns2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-1.4 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN29.6
PTS15.9
REB4.7
AST6.1
STL1.0
BLK0.1
3PM2.5
FG%43.9%
3P%36.3%
FT%83.3%
+/-+2.5
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Portland Trail Blazers
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL33minutes
EXPECTED32.53pregame reference
DEVIATION+1.4%role consistent
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G18.2 PTS · 6.2 REB · 6.6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G18.2 PTS · 6.2 REB · 6.6 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G16.8 PTS · 5.3 REB · 5 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G18 PTS · 5.5 REB · 6.2 AST
creation→
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS47.4%2667/5626
2-POINT53.5%1794/3350
3-POINT38.4%873/2276
FREE THROW80.2%725/904
EFFECTIVE FG%55.2%
TRUE SHOOTING%57.5%
AST / TO2.53
PTS PER 3618.12rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 208 | 31.94 | 16.21 | 4.61 | 5.86 | 2.1 | 1.27 | 0.5 |
| Away | 218 | 32.7 | 16.33 | 4.94 | 6.1 | 2 | 1.3 | 0.54 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.8 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.2 | +0.1 | -0.0 | -0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 3 | 6 | 8 | 5.98 | medium |
| minutes | 28 | 33.6 | 36.6 | 32.33 | low |
| points | 10 | 15 | 22 | 16.27 | medium |
| rebounds | 3 | 5 | 6 | 4.78 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES6415.0% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES10.2% of games
10+ ASSISTS5813.6%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | vs SAC | 33 | 32.53 | +1.4% | 23 | 8/18 | 6/10 | 2/8 | 5/6 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +10.0 | 56% |
| 2026-04-10 | vs LAC | 32 | 33.07 | -3.2% | 9 | 2/6 | 2/3 | 0/3 | 5/5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +8.0 | 55% |
| 2026-04-08 | @ SAS | 31 | 32.33 | -4.1% | 13 | 6/17 | 5/10 | 1/7 | 0/0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -9.0 | 38% |
| 2026-04-06 | @ DEN | 39 | 31.26 | +24.8% | 19 | 7/19 | 2/7 | 5/12 | 0/0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1.0 | 50% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs NOP | 37 | 29.99 | +23.4% | 27 | 10/22 | 3/7 | 7/15 | 0/0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +14.0 | 61% |
| 2026-03-31 | @ LAC | 32 | 28.98 | +10.4% | 30 | 10/21 | 3/6 | 7/15 | 3/3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +6.0 | 67% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs DAL | 35 | 28.32 | +23.6% | 23 | 8/19 | 5/10 | 3/9 | 4/4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +5.0 | 55% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs MIL | 26 | 28 | -7.2% | 13 | 4/7 | 0/2 | 4/5 | 1/1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +28.0 | 87% |
| 2026-03-23 | vs BKN | 27 | 30.26 | -10.8% | 11 | 5/10 | 4/5 | 1/5 | 0/0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +21.0 | 55% |
| 2026-03-20 | @ MIN | 32 | 29.58 | +8.2% | 12 | 5/17 | 4/11 | 1/6 | 1/1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +14.0 | 34% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS34.8%16/46 games
10+ REBOUNDS2.2%1/46 games
5+ ASSISTS60.9%28/46 games
2+ THREES65.2%30/46 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | POR | 46 | 29.6 | 15.9 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 43.9% | 36.3% | 83.3% |
| 2024–25 | BOS | 61 | 30.7 | 11.2 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 44.6% | 35.5% | 90.9% |
| 2023–24 | BOS | 68 | 32.8 | 12.3 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 47.8% | 42.6% | 83.8% |
| 2022–23 | MIL | 67 | 32.5 | 19.3 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 47.9% | 38.4% | 85.9% |
| 2021–22 | MIL | 65 | 32.8 | 18.3 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 50.1% | 41.6% | 76.4% |
| 2020–21 | MIL | 58 | 32.3 | 17.7 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 50.4% | 39.1% | 80.3% |
| 2019–20 | NOP | 61 | 34.7 | 19.1 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 45.5% | 35.3% | 70.9% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | POR | 52 | 46.3 | #158 / 409 | 15.1M | Core |
| 2024–25 | BOS | 69 | 42.1 | #231 / 422 | 12.9M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | BOS | 87 | 46.3 | #157 / 409 | 17.9M | Core |
| 2022–23 | MIL | 72 | 54.2 | #57 / 408 | 23M | Core |
| 2021–22 | MIL | 78 | 55.1 | #57 / 423 | 24.6M | Core |
| 2020–21 | MIL | 82 | 54.6 | #61 / 410 | 24.8M | Core |
| 2019–20 | NOP | 61 | 50.4 | #92 / 385 | 20.5M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER46.3descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#158of 409 ranked
PH$15.1MCore
SAMPLE52observed games
Ball security43
Box defence27
Creation74
Efficiency36
Rebounding32
Scoring60
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-33.7 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+16.1 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+11.3 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY70-1.4 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
POR
Portland Trail Blazers
EXPECTED MIN24.4
SCORING SHARE14.0%
CREATION SHARE26.3%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR73.2%
+6.09 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 35 normal-load / 3 nonparticipation games.