Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Karlo Matkovic
New Orleans Pelicans current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER51.72025–26
NBA RANK#87of 409
PH$15.7MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Indiana Pacers2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN14.6
PTS5.5
REB3.5
AST0.8
STL0.4
BLK0.9
3PM0.6
FG%61.0%
3P%42.0%
FT%75.0%
+/--2.1
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · New Orleans Pelicans
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED4.95pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G6.4 PTS · 4.6 REB · 0.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G1.8 PTS · 1.2 REB · 0.1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G5.1 PTS · 3.6 REB · 0.7 AST
creation↓
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring↑
HOT historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS59.0%256/434
2-POINT70.1%204/291
3-POINT36.4%52/143
FREE THROW75.6%59/78
EFFECTIVE FG%65.0%
TRUE SHOOTING%66.5%
AST / TO1.2
PTS PER 3613.89rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 45 | 15.91 | 6.78 | 3.98 | 0.96 | 0.58 | 0.51 | 1.09 |
| Away | 54 | 16.65 | 5.89 | 4.22 | 0.89 | 0.48 | 0.39 | 0.8 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.7 | +0.9 | -0.2 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.92 | high |
| minutes | 10 | 17 | 22 | 16.31 | medium |
| points | 2 | 5 | 10 | 6.29 | high |
| rebounds | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4.11 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES44.0% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | vs HOU | 17 | 18.2 | -6.6% | 2 | 1/4 | 1/1 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -25.0 | 25% |
| 2026-03-27 | @ TOR | 17 | 18.17 | -6.4% | 4 | 2/4 | 2/3 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -9.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-24 | @ NYK | 23 | 17 | +35.3% | 12 | 5/6 | 3/4 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-21 | vs CLE | 12 | 18.9 | -36.5% | 6 | 3/4 | 3/3 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -11.0 | 75% |
| 2026-03-19 | vs LAC | 23 | 15.77 | +45.9% | 3 | 0/6 | 0/2 | 0/4 | 3/4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +6.0 | 19% |
| 2026-03-13 | @ HOU | 22 | 14.64 | +50.2% | 8 | 3/3 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 133% |
| 2026-03-11 | vs TOR | 13 | 16.12 | -19.4% | 4 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8.0 | 106% |
| 2026-03-06 | @ PHX | 13 | 17.71 | -26.6% | 9 | 4/4 | 3/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1.0 | 113% |
| 2026-03-05 | @ SAC | 25 | 16.14 | +54.9% | 9 | 4/9 | 3/6 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +22.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-01 | @ LAC | 14 | 19.78 | -29.2% | 4 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 4/4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7.0 | 53% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/58 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/58 games
5+ ASSISTS1.7%1/58 games
2+ THREES12.1%7/58 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | NOP | 58 | 51.7 | #87 / 409 | 15.7M | Core |
| 2024–25 | NOP | 41 | 49.4 | #132 / 422 | 13.3M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER51.7descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#87of 409 ranked
PH$15.7MCore
SAMPLE58observed games
Ball security45
Box defence59
Creation20
Efficiency82
Rebounding56
Scoring26
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT+10.0 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-14.6 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
NOP
New Orleans Pelicans
EXPECTED MIN11.3
SCORING SHARE4.6%
CREATION SHARE3.4%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR73.8%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.