CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

Jaden McDaniels

Minnesota Timberwolves current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.

Minnesota Timberwolves · current teamFUSAWashington

AF-PLAYER42.32025–26

NBA RANK#214of 409

PH$14.5MRotation · fictional game currency

STATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status

EXPECTED MIN28.6governed role

NEXT GAME@ Miami Heat2026-10-21 WHAT IF IMPACT-0.3 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual

REGULAR-SEASON GAMES433

Player-safe accepted corpus.

CAREER PPG · CORPUS11.1

2019–20 through 2025–26 window.

CAREER RPG · CORPUS4.2

Historical window, not full NBA career.

CAREER APG · CORPUS1.7

Historical window, not full NBA career.

LATEST COMPLETED SEASON

2025–26

71 games

MIN31.8

PTS14.9

REB4.3

AST2.7

STL1.1

BLK1.0

3PM1.4

FG%51.4%

3P%40.9%

FT%83.5%

+/-+2.1

NEXT GAME

Current context

2026–27 · Minnesota Timberwolves

Assigned schedule

NBA Official roster

2026-10-21 · AWAY@ Miami Heat43.6% winProjected 113–116

2026-10-23 · AWAY@ Orlando Magic47.5% winProjected 112–114

2026-10-25 · HOMEvs Toronto Raptors59.1% winProjected 112–114

2026-10-26 · AWAY@ Cleveland Cavaliers40.7% winProjected 112–115

2026-10-28 · HOMEvs Golden State Warriors60.0% winProjected 112–115

E66 · PLAYER PROJECTION

Loading next-game projection…

PTS / REB / AST / 3PM use a separately validated player-stat model. Game Win, projected team score, Form and milestones keep their own authorities.

Current team Open Player What If

MINUTES + FORM

Role-adjusted performance

CURRENT FORM · 2026–27

Waiting for completed player boxscores

PRESEASON / NO SAMPLE

ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.

LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26

Historical Minutes Intelligence

DESCRIPTIVE · NOT CURRENT

Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.

LATEST ACTUAL0minutes

EXPECTED14.53pregame reference

DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown

LAST 5

ALL OBSERVED5 G6.8 PTS · 1.8 REB · 0.8 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G13.6 PTS · 3 REB · 1.4 AST

LAST 10

ALL OBSERVED10 G5.9 PTS · 1.1 REB · 0.4 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G16.4 PTS · 4.2 REB · 1.7 AST

creation↓

efficiency↓

minutes→

rebounding↓

scoring→

COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.

SPLITS + EFFICIENCY

How the production is built

EFFICIENCY

Shooting, derived from the box score

CAREER · 433 GAMES

2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.

FIELD GOALS49.0%1883/3841

2-POINT57.4%1342/2337

3-POINT36.0%541/1504

FREE THROW77.4%494/638

EFFECTIVE FG%56.1%

TRUE SHOOTING%58.2%

AST / TO1.38

PTS PER 3613.73rate, not projection

HOME / AWAY

Where the games were played

216 HOME · 217 AWAY

Split	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK
Home	216	29.01	11.04	4.16	1.8	1.3	0.87	1.05
Away	217	29.11	11.14	4.21	1.65	1.2	1.02	0.69
Home − Away	—	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	+0.1	+0.1	-0.1	+0.4

Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.

CONSISTENCY

What the average hides

433 GAMES

Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.

Category	Floor	Median	Ceiling	Mean	Volatility
assists	0	1	3	1.72	high
minutes	23	30	35	29.06	low
points	5	10	16	11.09	high
rebounds	2	4	6	4.18	high

Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.

DOUBLE-DOUBLES

Observed frequency across the corpus

433 GAMES

DOUBLE-DOUBLES102.3% of games

TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games

10+ ASSISTS00.0%

10+ BLOCKS00.0%

Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.

GAME LOG · 2025–26

One log, the window you choose

10 games

Date	Opp	MIN	EXP MIN	MIN Δ	PTS	FG	2P	3P	FT	OR	DR	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	+/-	TS%
2026-04-10	@ HOU	35	9.5	+268.3%	16	8/19	8/16	0/3	0/0	1	6	7	2	0	4	0	3	-1.0	42%
2026-04-08	@ ORL	19	9.66	+96.7%	18	8/16	7/11	1/5	1/2	1	1	2	2	1	0	2	1	-13.0	53%
2026-03-25	vs HOU	37	30.52	+21.2%	25	10/17	7/13	3/4	2/3	0	2	2	0	2	2	1	3	-6.0	68%
2026-03-22	@ BOS	33	29.4	+12.3%	19	8/18	5/11	3/7	0/0	0	6	6	3	0	0	2	1	-3.0	53%
2026-03-20	vs POR	40	27.85	+43.6%	16	6/11	6/10	0/1	4/6	2	4	6	3	5	1	1	3	-11.0	59%
2026-03-17	vs PHX	37	25.7	+44%	16	6/12	5/9	1/3	3/4	3	4	7	4	3	1	0	5	-4.0	58%
2026-03-15	@ OKC	16	28.31	-43.5%	2	1/3	1/1	0/2	0/0	0	1	1	1	0	0	2	4	-17.0	33%
2026-03-13	@ GSW	30	28.63	+4.8%	15	6/9	5/6	1/3	2/2	0	1	1	2	1	1	4	5	+7.0	76%
2026-03-10	@ LAL	26	29.54	-12%	6	3/9	3/4	0/5	0/0	0	2	2	0	1	0	2	3	-10.0	33%
2026-03-07	vs ORL	29	30.08	-3.6%	3	0/9	0/5	0/4	3/4	0	4	4	2	3	0	2	4	-23.0	14%

All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.

HISTORY

Season and milestone evidence

DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26

How often did the threshold occur?

historical frequency

These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.

20+ POINTS23.9%17/71 games

10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/71 games

5+ ASSISTS15.5%11/71 games

2+ THREES38.0%27/71 games

SEASON HISTORY

Regular-season production

accepted player-safe games

Season	Team(s)	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
2025–26	MIN	71	31.8	14.9	4.3	2.7	51.4%	40.9%	83.5%
2024–25	MIN	78	31.9	12.3	5.8	2.0	48.5%	33.8%	81.3%
2023–24	MIN	72	29.2	10.5	3.1	1.4	48.9%	33.7%	72.2%
2022–23	MIN	79	30.6	12.1	3.9	1.9	51.6%	39.6%	73.6%
2021–22	MIN	70	25.8	9.2	4.2	1.1	46.0%	31.8%	80.3%
2020–21	MIN	63	24.0	6.8	3.7	1.1	44.7%	36.4%	60.0%

AF-PLAYER HISTORY

Season by season

Season	Team	G	AF-Player	Rank	PH$	Band
2025–26	MIN	83	42.3	#214 / 409	14.5M	Rotation
2024–25	MIN	93	41.3	#245 / 422	13.5M	Rotation
2023–24	MIN	88	32.9	#357 / 409	8.5M	Depth
2022–23	MIN	79	40.6	#233 / 408	12.7M	Rotation
2021–22	MIN	77	34.4	#344 / 423	8.4M	Depth
2020–21	MIN	70	32.2	#349 / 410	7.4M	Depth

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.

CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY

Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.

governed identity

Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.

Open team profile

IMPACT

Rating and role context

AF-PLAYER

Measured production, 2025–26

#214 OF 409

AF-PLAYER42.3descriptive index, not a win probability

NBA RANK#214of 409 ranked

PH$14.5MRotation

SAMPLE83observed games

Ball security

Box defence

Creation

Efficiency

Rebounding

Scoring

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.

E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Distinct signals, side by side

descriptive · current role + historical rating

Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.

VALUE OVER ROLE-14.0 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct

AF MOVEMENT+5.8 pp2024–25 → 2025–26

ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-3.5 min vs latest observed MPG

STAR DEPENDENCY35-0.3 pp next-game What If impact

Player movement Opportunities Compare players

Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.

PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26

Pregame role and with/without context

descriptive · not causal

Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.

MIN

Minnesota Timberwolves

EXPECTED MIN29.1

SCORING SHARE12.7%

CREATION SHARE10.1%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR81.4%

+1.96 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 64 normal-load / 4 nonparticipation games.