Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Derrick Jones Jr.
LA Clippers current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER41.62025–26
NBA RANK#223of 409
PH$10.6MRotation · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN19.4governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Sacramento Kings2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.2 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN27.0
PTS10.1
REB3.3
AST1.4
STL0.8
BLK1.0
3PM1.2
FG%49.1%
3P%37.2%
FT%75.6%
+/-+1.4
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · LA Clippers
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL21minutes
EXPECTED25.83pregame reference
DEVIATION-18.7%role consistent
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G5.4 PTS · 2.8 REB · 0.6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G6.2 PTS · 3.6 REB · 0.8 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G5.1 PTS · 3.5 REB · 0.9 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G6.6 PTS · 4.1 REB · 1.4 AST
creation↓
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring↓
COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS50.7%1266/2497
2-POINT62.1%925/1489
3-POINT33.8%341/1008
FREE THROW73.1%513/702
EFFECTIVE FG%57.5%
TRUE SHOOTING%60.3%
AST / TO1.29
PTS PER 3613.06rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 223 | 22 | 8.08 | 3.39 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| Away | 205 | 21.59 | 7.73 | 3.23 | 0.84 | 0.75 | 0.81 | 0.74 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.0 | +0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.86 | high |
| minutes | 15.9 | 22 | 29 | 21.8 | medium |
| points | 3 | 7 | 12 | 7.91 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3.31 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES20.5% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | vs GSW | 21 | 25.83 | -18.7% | 0 | 0/4 | 0/3 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6.0 | 0% |
| 2026-04-10 | @ POR | 23 | 26.12 | -11.9% | 10 | 3/5 | 1/2 | 2/3 | 2/2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2.0 | 85% |
| 2026-04-08 | vs OKC | 30 | 25.75 | +16.5% | 11 | 4/9 | 2/4 | 2/5 | 1/2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -10.0 | 56% |
| 2026-04-05 | @ SAC | 25 | 26.47 | -5.5% | 6 | 3/4 | 3/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +21.0 | 75% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs SAS | 24 | 27.98 | -14.2% | 4 | 2/6 | 2/4 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 33% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs POR | 23 | 29.7 | -22.6% | 1 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 1/2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +3.0 | 17% |
| 2026-03-29 | @ MIL | 26 | 29.44 | -11.7% | 13 | 6/9 | 5/8 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +14.0 | 72% |
| 2026-03-27 | @ IND | 26 | 30.08 | -13.6% | 4 | 2/7 | 2/6 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5.0 | 29% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs TOR | 28 | 30.79 | -9.1% | 2 | 1/4 | 1/3 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +15.0 | 25% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ DAL | 37 | 30.53 | +21.2% | 15 | 6/9 | 3/4 | 3/5 | 0/0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +5.0 | 83% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS4.4%2/45 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/45 games
5+ ASSISTS2.2%1/45 games
2+ THREES35.6%16/45 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | LAC | 45 | 27.0 | 10.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 49.1% | 37.2% | 75.6% |
| 2024–25 | LAC | 76 | 24.4 | 10.2 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 52.8% | 36.1% | 70.7% |
| 2023–24 | DAL | 76 | 23.4 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 48.3% | 34.3% | 71.3% |
| 2022–23 | CHI | 64 | 14.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 33.8% | 73.8% |
| 2021–22 | CHI | 51 | 17.6 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 53.8% | 32.8% | 80.0% |
| 2020–21 | POR | 57 | 23.0 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 48.7% | 31.9% | 64.8% |
| 2019–20 | MIA | 59 | 23.3 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 52.7% | 28.0% | 77.2% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | LAC | 46 | 41.6 | #223 / 409 | 10.6M | Rotation |
| 2024–25 | LAC | 83 | 42.4 | #225 / 422 | 12.8M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | DAL | 98 | 37.2 | #302 / 409 | 10M | Rotation |
| 2022–23 | CHI | 66 | 43.0 | #198 / 408 | 10.4M | Rotation |
| 2021–22 | CHI | 66 | 42.5 | #222 / 423 | 10.3M | Rotation |
| 2020–21 | POR | 71 | 39.4 | #275 / 410 | 9.1M | Depth |
| 2019–20 | MIA | 81 | 49.4 | #100 / 385 | 17.2M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER41.6descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#223of 409 ranked
PH$10.6MRotation
SAMPLE46observed games
Ball security76
Box defence47
Creation21
Efficiency57
Rebounding24
Scoring30
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+9.5 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-1.2 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-7.4 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY28-0.2 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
LAC
LA Clippers
EXPECTED MIN18.7
SCORING SHARE9.2%
CREATION SHARE5.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR65.1%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.