Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
De'Aaron Fox
San Antonio Spurs current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER49.92025–26
NBA RANK#110of 409
PH$21.1MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN39.3governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Oklahoma City Thunder2026-10-20WHAT IF IMPACT-0.4 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN31.0
PTS18.5
REB3.7
AST6.2
STL1.3
BLK0.3
3PM1.8
FG%48.5%
3P%33.3%
FT%75.9%
+/-+6.2
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · San Antonio Spurs
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL33minutes
EXPECTED28.47pregame reference
DEVIATION+15.9%role consistent
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G15.2 PTS · 3 REB · 4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G13.4 PTS · 2.8 REB · 5 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G12.8 PTS · 3.1 REB · 4.1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G15.3 PTS · 3.6 REB · 5.1 AST
creation→
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring↓
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS47.9%3861/8056
2-POINT54.5%3053/5597
3-POINT32.9%808/2459
FREE THROW75.2%1901/2527
EFFECTIVE FG%52.9%
TRUE SHOOTING%56.9%
AST / TO2.3
PTS PER 3624.65rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 226 | 33.98 | 23.29 | 4.01 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 1.43 | 0.41 |
| Away | 220 | 34.33 | 23.49 | 4.21 | 6.15 | 1.92 | 1.43 | 0.37 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.2 | +0.1 | -0.2 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 4 | 6 | 9 | 6.22 | medium |
| minutes | 31 | 35 | 38 | 34.15 | low |
| points | 15 | 24 | 30 | 23.39 | medium |
| rebounds | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4.11 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES5813.0% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS5512.3%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | vs DEN | 33 | 28.47 | +15.9% | 24 | 8/21 | 4/7 | 4/14 | 4/4 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2.0 | 53% |
| 2026-04-08 | vs POR | 35 | 26.92 | +30% | 25 | 10/20 | 7/14 | 3/6 | 2/3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -3.0 | 59% |
| 2026-04-06 | vs PHI | 27 | 26.03 | +3.7% | 13 | 6/12 | 5/7 | 1/5 | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +15.0 | 51% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ DEN | 40 | 21.04 | +90.1% | 14 | 7/19 | 7/13 | 0/6 | 0/0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +7.0 | 37% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ LAC | 29 | 21.26 | +36.4% | 22 | 9/13 | 8/9 | 1/4 | 3/4 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | +24.0 | 75% |
| 2026-04-01 | @ GSW | 25 | 21.79 | +14.7% | 11 | 4/7 | 3/5 | 1/2 | 2/2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +30.0 | 70% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs CHI | 23 | 23.5 | -2.1% | 7 | 3/8 | 3/5 | 0/3 | 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +9.0 | 39% |
| 2026-03-28 | @ MIL | 21 | 23.97 | -12.4% | 12 | 6/9 | 6/6 | 0/3 | 0/1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +22.0 | 64% |
| 2026-03-23 | @ MIA | 29 | 29.33 | -1.1% | 14 | 5/13 | 4/9 | 1/4 | 3/3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +24.0 | 49% |
| 2026-03-21 | vs IND | 26 | 30.39 | -14.5% | 14 | 6/16 | 4/11 | 2/5 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +9.0 | 44% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS42.9%30/70 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/70 games
5+ ASSISTS71.4%50/70 games
2+ THREES52.9%37/70 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | SAS | 70 | 31.0 | 18.5 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 48.5% | 33.3% | 75.9% |
| 2024–25 | SASSAC | 62 | 36.2 | 23.5 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 46.4% | 31.0% | 82.7% |
| 2023–24 | SAC | 74 | 35.9 | 26.6 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 46.5% | 36.9% | 73.8% |
| 2022–23 | SAC | 73 | 33.4 | 25.0 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 51.3% | 32.5% | 78.0% |
| 2021–22 | SAC | 59 | 35.3 | 23.2 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 47.3% | 29.7% | 75.0% |
| 2020–21 | SAC | 57 | 35.1 | 25.3 | 3.5 | 7.2 | 47.7% | 32.2% | 71.8% |
| 2019–20 | SAC | 51 | 32.0 | 21.1 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 48.0% | 29.2% | 70.5% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | SAS | 91 | 49.9 | #110 / 409 | 21.1M | Core |
| 2024–25 | SAC | 62 | 52.6 | #88 / 422 | 21.3M | Core |
| 2023–24 | SAC | 76 | 56.1 | #54 / 409 | 24.7M | Core |
| 2022–23 | SAC | 80 | 58.8 | #32 / 408 | 26.3M | High Value |
| 2021–22 | SAC | 59 | 51.0 | #98 / 423 | 20.1M | Core |
| 2020–21 | SAC | 57 | 58.3 | #33 / 410 | 24.8M | Core |
| 2019–20 | SAC | 51 | 56.5 | #44 / 385 | 21.9M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER49.9descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#110of 409 ranked
PH$21.1MCore
SAMPLE91observed games
Ball security59
Box defence33
Creation81
Efficiency42
Rebounding13
Scoring67
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-13.1 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-6.0 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+7.7 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY58-0.4 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
SAS
San Antonio Spurs
EXPECTED MIN29.7
SCORING SHARE15.6%
CREATION SHARE21.9%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR84.3%
+1.79 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 73 normal-load / 4 nonparticipation games.