Player-safe accepted corpus.
PLAYER PROFILE · HISTORICAL
Dru Smith
Accepted historical regular-season production. No current 2026–27 roster status is inferred.
AF-PLAYER41.22025–26
NBA RANK#227of 409
PH$10.1MRotation · fictional game currencySTATUSHistoricalno current binding
EXPECTED MINWithheldonly when supported
NEXT GAMENo assigned gameSchedule pendingWHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN16.3
PTS5.6
REB2.4
AST2.5
STL1.4
BLK0.3
3PM0.5
FG%41.2%
3P%28.8%
FT%82.2%
+/--1.6
NEXT GAME
Current context
No current roster binding is published for this historical profile. ProbHoops does not infer a current team, availability or expected minutes from historical data.
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
Current form is unavailable because this historical profile is not bound to the governed 2026–27 roster. No current role is inferred.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED1.93pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G1.2 PTS · 0 REB · 0.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G3 PTS · 2.4 REB · 2.4 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G0.7 PTS · 0.1 REB · 0.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G4.1 PTS · 2.4 REB · 3.3 AST
creation→
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring↓
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS42.7%192/450
2-POINT49.4%128/259
3-POINT33.5%64/191
FREE THROW82.3%98/119
EFFECTIVE FG%49.8%
TRUE SHOOTING%54.3%
AST / TO3
PTS PER 3611.93rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 53 | 16.6 | 5.28 | 2.34 | 2.23 | 0.64 | 1.19 | 0.3 |
| Away | 52 | 14.75 | 5.12 | 2.17 | 2.12 | 0.58 | 1.4 | 0.31 |
| Home − Away | — | +1.9 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.1 | -0.2 | -0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2.17 | high |
| minutes | 7 | 17 | 22 | 15.69 | medium |
| points | 2 | 5 | 9 | 5.2 | high |
| rebounds | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2.26 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | vs WAS | 12 | 2.46 | +388.1% | 6 | 2/5 | 2/2 | 0/3 | 2/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -15.0 | 51% |
| 2026-04-01 | vs BOS | 4 | 2.66 | +50.7% | 0 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -18.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs PHI | 3 | 3.72 | -19.4% | 1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5.0 | 57% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ HOU | 7 | 13.02 | -46.2% | 2 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -13.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-19 | vs LAL | 16 | 12.81 | +24.9% | 2 | 1/3 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +6.0 | 33% |
| 2026-03-17 | @ CHA | 8 | 14.92 | -46.4% | 4 | 2/3 | 2/2 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -10.0 | 67% |
| 2026-03-12 | vs MIL | 21 | 13.14 | +59.8% | 9 | 4/7 | 4/6 | 0/1 | 1/1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -6.0 | 61% |
| 2026-03-10 | vs WAS | 23 | 10.95 | +110% | 5 | 2/4 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | +7.0 | 63% |
| 2026-03-06 | @ CHA | 18 | 9.05 | +99% | 4 | 1/5 | 1/4 | 0/1 | 2/2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2.0 | 34% |
| 2026-03-05 | vs BKN | 21 | 8.93 | +135.3% | 9 | 4/6 | 3/5 | 1/1 | 0/1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +11.0 | 70% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/67 games
10+ REBOUNDS1.5%1/67 games
5+ ASSISTS19.4%13/67 games
2+ THREES9.0%6/67 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
No current roster binding for this historical profile
This historical profile is not currently bound to the NBA Official 2026–27 roster product. ProbHoops does not infer a current team from historical data.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER41.2descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#227of 409 ranked
PH$10.1MRotation
SAMPLE67observed games
Ball security52
Box defence56
Creation74
Efficiency28
Rebounding32
Scoring25
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
MIA
Miami Heat
EXPECTED MIN14.5
SCORING SHARE4.6%
CREATION SHARE9.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR80.5%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.