Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Derrick White
Boston Celtics current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER42.02025–26
NBA RANK#218of 409
PH$14.4MRotation · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN40.3governed role
NEXT GAME@ Detroit Pistons2026-10-20WHAT IF IMPACT+0.0 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN34.2
PTS16.4
REB4.4
AST5.4
STL1.2
BLK1.3
3PM2.7
FG%39.2%
3P%31.9%
FT%90.3%
+/-+7.0
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Boston Celtics
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED31.04pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G7.8 PTS · 2.6 REB · 3 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G9.8 PTS · 4.6 REB · 4.4 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G6.2 PTS · 2.7 REB · 2.8 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G14.3 PTS · 4.1 REB · 4.8 AST
creation↓
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring↓
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS43.4%2337/5391
2-POINT52.7%1262/2396
3-POINT35.9%1075/2995
FREE THROW87.0%1095/1258
EFFECTIVE FG%53.3%
TRUE SHOOTING%57.6%
AST / TO3.04
PTS PER 3616.83rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 245 | 30.63 | 14.56 | 4 | 4.61 | 2.33 | 0.96 | 0.99 |
| Away | 236 | 30.23 | 13.89 | 3.7 | 4.43 | 2.14 | 0.77 | 1.03 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.4 | +0.7 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.2 | -0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 2 | 4 | 7 | 4.52 | high |
| minutes | 25 | 31 | 36 | 30.43 | low |
| points | 8 | 14 | 19 | 14.23 | medium |
| rebounds | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3.85 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES194.0% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES10.2% of games
10+ ASSISTS183.7%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | vs NOP | 16 | 34.45 | -53.6% | 9 | 3/9 | 0/0 | 3/9 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +18.0 | 50% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ NYK | 38 | 29.43 | +29.1% | 8 | 2/10 | 2/4 | 0/6 | 4/4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3.0 | 34% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs CHA | 37 | 28.69 | +28.9% | 12 | 4/5 | 0/0 | 4/5 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +18.0 | 120% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs TOR | 35 | 28.47 | +22.9% | 10 | 4/7 | 2/4 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +20.0 | 71% |
| 2026-04-01 | @ MIA | 34 | 27.54 | +23.4% | 6 | 3/4 | 3/3 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +6.0 | 75% |
| 2026-03-30 | @ ATL | 36 | 27.74 | +29.8% | 7 | 3/12 | 2/6 | 1/6 | 0/0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -8.0 | 29% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs ATL | 34 | 32.13 | +5.8% | 10 | 3/13 | 3/9 | 0/4 | 4/5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -4.0 | 33% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs OKC | 33 | 32.04 | +3% | 12 | 3/11 | 1/4 | 2/7 | 4/4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +6.0 | 47% |
| 2026-03-22 | vs MIN | 36 | 27.36 | +31.6% | 15 | 6/15 | 5/10 | 1/5 | 2/2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -12.0 | 47% |
| 2026-03-20 | @ MEM | 36 | 27.79 | +29.5% | 14 | 6/15 | 4/5 | 2/10 | 0/1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2.0 | 45% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS30.1%22/73 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/73 games
5+ ASSISTS61.6%45/73 games
2+ THREES72.6%53/73 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | BOS | 73 | 34.2 | 16.4 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 39.2% | 31.9% | 90.3% |
| 2024–25 | BOS | 75 | 33.8 | 16.4 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 44.0% | 38.4% | 83.9% |
| 2023–24 | BOS | 72 | 32.6 | 15.1 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 46.2% | 39.6% | 90.7% |
| 2022–23 | BOS | 82 | 28.3 | 12.4 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 46.2% | 38.1% | 87.5% |
| 2021–22 | SASBOS | 75 | 29.3 | 13.2 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 42.1% | 31.2% | 86.4% |
| 2020–21 | SAS | 36 | 29.5 | 15.4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 41.1% | 34.6% | 85.1% |
| 2019–20 | SAS | 68 | 24.7 | 11.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 45.8% | 36.6% | 85.3% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | BOS | 80 | 42.0 | #218 / 409 | 14.4M | Rotation |
| 2024–25 | BOS | 86 | 53.0 | #84 / 422 | 23M | Core |
| 2023–24 | BOS | 91 | 54.7 | #66 / 409 | 24.3M | Core |
| 2022–23 | BOS | 102 | 50.5 | #92 / 408 | 22.3M | Core |
| 2021–22 | BOS | 97 | 43.5 | #202 / 423 | 15.7M | Core |
| 2020–21 | SAS | 39 | 46.0 | #161 / 410 | 12.7M | Rotation |
| 2019–20 | SAS | 69 | 50.8 | #88 / 385 | 18.9M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER42.0descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#218of 409 ranked
PH$14.4MRotation
SAMPLE80observed games
Ball security79
Box defence47
Creation69
Efficiency22
Rebounding21
Scoring49
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-41.6 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-33.5 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+6.0 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY23+0.0 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
BOS
Boston Celtics
EXPECTED MIN31.8
SCORING SHARE14.6%
CREATION SHARE21.7%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR83.1%
-0.51 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 69 normal-load / 5 nonparticipation games.