Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Derik Queen
New Orleans Pelicans current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER45.22025–26
NBA RANK#173of 409
PH$15.1MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN42.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Indiana Pacers2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN25.1
PTS11.6
REB7.1
AST3.7
STL1.0
BLK0.9
3PM0.3
FG%47.1%
3P%24.4%
FT%78.7%
+/--4.5
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · New Orleans Pelicans
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL41minutes
EXPECTED23.54pregame reference
DEVIATION+74.2%expanded minutes
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G13 PTS · 8.6 REB · 2.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G6.6 PTS · 5.2 REB · 2.6 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G10.8 PTS · 6.5 REB · 2.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G7.7 PTS · 6.2 REB · 2.5 AST
creation↓
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring↓
COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS47.1%334/709
2-POINT50.1%314/627
3-POINT24.4%20/82
FREE THROW78.7%196/249
EFFECTIVE FG%48.5%
TRUE SHOOTING%54.0%
AST / TO1.59
PTS PER 3616.71rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 36 | 26.28 | 13.03 | 7.22 | 4.03 | 0.25 | 1.11 | 0.97 |
| Away | 40 | 23.98 | 10.38 | 6.92 | 3.4 | 0.28 | 0.95 | 0.88 |
| Home − Away | — | +2.3 | +2.6 | +0.3 | +0.6 | -0.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 3.5 | 6 | 3.7 | high |
| minutes | 18 | 26 | 31 | 25.07 | low |
| points | 6 | 10 | 17 | 11.63 | high |
| rebounds | 4 | 7 | 9 | 7.07 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES1215.8% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES22.6% of games
10+ ASSISTS34.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | @ MIN | 41 | 23.54 | +74.2% | 30 | 11/28 | 10/26 | 1/2 | 7/8 | 7 | 15 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -5.0 | 48% |
| 2026-04-10 | @ BOS | 39 | 22.48 | +73.5% | 25 | 9/14 | 9/12 | 0/2 | 7/9 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -24.0 | 70% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs ORL | 18 | 22.06 | -18.4% | 2 | 1/4 | 1/3 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -5.0 | 25% |
| 2026-04-03 | @ SAC | 28 | 20.42 | +37.1% | 8 | 3/10 | 3/8 | 0/2 | 2/2 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7.0 | 37% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ POR | 28 | 18.74 | +49.4% | 12 | 4/10 | 4/9 | 0/1 | 4/4 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +2.0 | 51% |
| 2026-03-29 | vs HOU | 24 | 17.33 | +38.5% | 13 | 5/12 | 4/9 | 1/3 | 2/4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -35.0 | 47% |
| 2026-03-27 | @ TOR | 23 | 16.22 | +41.8% | 13 | 5/11 | 5/11 | 0/0 | 3/5 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6.0 | 49% |
| 2026-03-24 | @ NYK | 18 | 15.68 | +14.8% | 5 | 2/8 | 2/5 | 0/3 | 1/1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -7.0 | 30% |
| 2026-03-21 | vs CLE | 15 | 17.2 | -12.8% | 9 | 3/5 | 3/4 | 0/1 | 3/3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 2026-03-19 | vs LAC | 16 | 17.74 | -9.8% | 5 | 2/5 | 1/3 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +4.0 | 50% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS14.5%11/76 games
10+ REBOUNDS17.1%13/76 games
5+ ASSISTS34.2%26/76 games
2+ THREES4.0%3/76 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | NOP | 76 | 25.1 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 47.1% | 24.4% | 78.7% |
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER45.2descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#173of 409 ranked
PH$15.1MCore
SAMPLE76observed games
Ball security20
Box defence60
Creation51
Efficiency34
Rebounding62
Scoring50
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-37.4 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT—two eligible completed seasons required
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+16.9 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
NOP
New Orleans Pelicans
EXPECTED MIN23.7
SCORING SHARE9.7%
CREATION SHARE13.8%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR86.3%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.