Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Caleb Martin
Dallas Mavericks current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER30.82025–26
NBA RANK#372of 409
PH$5.9MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAME@ Houston Rockets2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN14.9
PTS3.9
REB2.5
AST1.4
STL0.7
BLK0.3
3PM0.3
FG%44.7%
3P%34.0%
FT%59.3%
+/--3.5
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Dallas Mavericks
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED4.02pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G4.4 PTS · 2.2 REB · 1 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G6.9 PTS · 3.7 REB · 1.4 AST
creation↓
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS44.4%1027/2312
2-POINT50.5%699/1383
3-POINT35.3%328/929
FREE THROW71.6%385/538
EFFECTIVE FG%51.5%
TRUE SHOOTING%54.3%
AST / TO1.67
PTS PER 3612rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 183 | 22.68 | 7.68 | 3.6 | 1.62 | 0.96 | 0.84 | 0.37 |
| Away | 180 | 23.07 | 7.56 | 3.71 | 1.57 | 0.84 | 0.85 | 0.42 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.4 | +0.1 | -0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | -0.0 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | high |
| minutes | 14 | 24 | 31.1 | 22.87 | medium |
| points | 2 | 7 | 13 | 7.62 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3.65 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES71.9% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | vs CLE | 16 | 14.29 | +12% | 4 | 1/5 | 1/2 | 0/3 | 2/2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -25.0 | 34% |
| 2026-03-08 | @ TOR | 15 | 19.05 | -21.3% | 0 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -16.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-06 | @ BOS | 16 | 19.16 | -16.5% | 4 | 2/3 | 2/2 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1.0 | 67% |
| 2026-03-05 | @ ORL | 11 | 18.16 | -39.4% | 3 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 0/1 | 1/2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.0 | 52% |
| 2026-03-03 | @ CHA | 26 | 18.03 | +44.2% | 9 | 3/7 | 3/5 | 0/2 | 3/8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -29.0 | 43% |
| 2026-03-01 | vs OKC | 30 | 15.69 | +91.2% | 18 | 6/11 | 3/6 | 3/5 | 3/6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10.0 | 66% |
| 2026-02-26 | vs SAC | 20 | 16.46 | +21.5% | 10 | 4/7 | 3/5 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -25.0 | 64% |
| 2026-02-24 | @ BKN | 23 | 17.26 | +33.3% | 3 | 1/4 | 1/3 | 0/1 | 1/2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1.0 | 31% |
| 2026-02-20 | @ MIN | 15 | 17 | -11.8% | 4 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -16.0 | 69% |
| 2026-02-10 | @ PHX | 11 | 22.1 | -50.2% | 2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -18.0 | 114% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/55 games
10+ REBOUNDS1.8%1/55 games
5+ ASSISTS7.3%4/55 games
2+ THREES7.3%4/55 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | DAL | 55 | 14.9 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 44.7% | 34.0% | 59.3% |
| 2024–25 | PHIDAL | 44 | 27.1 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 42.7% | 37.0% | 62.5% |
| 2023–24 | MIA | 64 | 27.5 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 43.1% | 34.9% | 77.8% |
| 2022–23 | MIA | 71 | 29.3 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 46.4% | 35.6% | 80.5% |
| 2021–22 | MIA | 58 | 22.8 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 49.4% | 39.0% | 74.4% |
| 2020–21 | CHA | 53 | 15.4 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 37.5% | 24.8% | 64.1% |
| 2019–20 | CHA | 18 | 17.6 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 44.0% | 54.0% | 81.0% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | DAL | 55 | 30.8 | #372 / 409 | 5.9M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | DAL | 46 | 29.3 | #395 / 422 | 6.1M | Depth |
| 2023–24 | MIA | 71 | 33.3 | #350 / 409 | 7.7M | Depth |
| 2022–23 | MIA | 96 | 38.0 | #282 / 408 | 11.4M | Rotation |
| 2021–22 | MIA | 78 | 39.9 | #264 / 423 | 10.1M | Rotation |
| 2020–21 | CHA | 73 | 30.8 | #360 / 410 | 6M | Depth |
| 2019–20 | CHA | 30 | 41.3 | #208 / 385 | 8.3M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER30.8descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#372of 409 ranked
PH$5.9MDepth
SAMPLE55observed games
Ball security35
Box defence49
Creation41
Efficiency30
Rebounding29
Scoring11
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT+2.7 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-14.9 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
DAL
Dallas Mavericks
EXPECTED MIN11.7
SCORING SHARE3.0%
CREATION SHARE5.7%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR76.2%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.