Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Sam Hauser
Boston Celtics current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER39.42025–26
NBA RANK#262of 409
PH$11.3MRotation · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN28.8governed role
NEXT GAME@ Detroit Pistons2026-10-20WHAT IF IMPACT-0.1 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN24.9
PTS9.0
REB3.8
AST1.5
STL0.5
BLK0.3
3PM2.5
FG%40.9%
3P%38.4%
FT%82.3%
+/-+4.0
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Boston Celtics
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED25.79pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G8.6 PTS · 3 REB · 2.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G14.4 PTS · 3.4 REB · 1.4 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G9 PTS · 2.7 REB · 1.3 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G9.4 PTS · 3.3 REB · 1.3 AST
creation→
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring↑
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS43.8%884/2019
2-POINT59.7%191/320
3-POINT40.8%693/1699
FREE THROW83.6%51/61
EFFECTIVE FG%61.0%
TRUE SHOOTING%61.4%
AST / TO2.8
PTS PER 3613.92rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 157 | 20.03 | 7.62 | 3.11 | 1.1 | 2.08 | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| Away | 170 | 19.71 | 7.74 | 3.07 | 0.95 | 2.16 | 0.52 | 0.28 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.3 | -0.1 | +0.0 | +0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.02 | high |
| minutes | 12 | 21 | 27.8 | 19.86 | medium |
| points | 3 | 6 | 12 | 7.68 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3.09 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | vs NOP | 28 | 24.79 | +13% | 24 | 8/13 | 0/1 | 8/12 | 0/0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +21.0 | 92% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ NYK | 31 | 24.79 | +25% | 6 | 2/7 | 0/1 | 2/6 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.0 | 43% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs CHA | 16 | 26.62 | -39.9% | 5 | 2/7 | 1/2 | 1/5 | 0/0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4.0 | 36% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs TOR | 26 | 27.01 | -3.8% | 8 | 3/7 | 2/3 | 1/4 | 1/1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +9.0 | 54% |
| 2026-04-01 | @ MIA | 29 | 25.61 | +13.2% | 23 | 9/11 | 4/4 | 5/7 | 0/1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +23.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-30 | @ ATL | 21 | 26.14 | -19.6% | 7 | 2/5 | 1/2 | 1/3 | 2/2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3.0 | 60% |
| 2026-03-29 | @ CHA | 34 | 24.14 | +40.8% | 7 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 2/4 | 1/2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +13.0 | 72% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs ATL | 29 | 23.25 | +24.8% | 10 | 4/7 | 2/2 | 2/5 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3.0 | 71% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs OKC | 29 | 22.59 | +28.4% | 9 | 3/9 | 0/1 | 3/8 | 0/0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +4.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-22 | vs MIN | 19 | 23.84 | -20.3% | 2 | 1/4 | 1/1 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -5.0 | 25% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS5.4%4/74 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/74 games
5+ ASSISTS1.4%1/74 games
2+ THREES66.2%49/74 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | BOS | 81 | 39.4 | #262 / 409 | 11.3M | Rotation |
| 2024–25 | BOS | 77 | 44.5 | #199 / 422 | 12.8M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | BOS | 97 | 45.3 | #168 / 409 | 14.9M | Rotation |
| 2022–23 | BOS | 95 | 45.3 | #170 / 408 | 13M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER39.4descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#262of 409 ranked
PH$11.3MRotation
SAMPLE81observed games
Ball security91
Box defence17
Creation42
Efficiency47
Rebounding25
Scoring24
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-26.6 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-16.9 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+4.0 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY23-0.1 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
BOS
Boston Celtics
EXPECTED MIN23.3
SCORING SHARE7.9%
CREATION SHARE5.8%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR84.0%
+3.82 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 53 normal-load / 4 nonparticipation games.