Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
LeBron James
Philadelphia 76ers current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
Photo: Erik Drost · Wikimedia Commons · CC BY 4.0
AF-PLAYER57.52025–26
NBA RANK#33of 409
PH$25.7MHigh Value · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN34.2governed role
NEXT GAME@ New York Knicks2026-10-20WHAT IF IMPACT-1.0 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN33.3
PTS20.7
REB6.0
AST7.1
STL1.2
BLK0.6
3PM1.3
FG%51.6%
3P%32.0%
FT%73.7%
+/-+1.9
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Philadelphia 76ers
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED26.22pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G10.8 PTS · 2.8 REB · 4.6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G20.4 PTS · 7 REB · 8.6 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G13.9 PTS · 5 REB · 6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G17.9 PTS · 7 REB · 8.2 AST
creation↑
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring→
HOT historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS51.4%4056/7894
2-POINT58.6%3164/5400
3-POINT35.8%892/2494
FREE THROW74.1%1702/2296
EFFECTIVE FG%57.0%
TRUE SHOOTING%60.1%
AST / TO2.26
PTS PER 3626.4rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 214 | 34.59 | 25.38 | 7.23 | 8.14 | 2.25 | 1.12 | 0.62 |
| Away | 204 | 35.28 | 25.86 | 7.89 | 7.69 | 2.01 | 1.14 | 0.62 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.7 | +0.5 | +0.2 | -0.0 | 0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 5 | 8 | 11 | 7.92 | medium |
| minutes | 32 | 35.1 | 38 | 34.93 | low |
| points | 19 | 25 | 32 | 25.61 | low |
| rebounds | 5 | 7 | 10 | 7.55 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES17642.1% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES4410.5% of games
10+ ASSISTS12128.9%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | vs PHX | 32 | 26.38 | +21.3% | 28 | 10/16 | 8/14 | 2/2 | 6/9 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +27.0 | 70% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ GSW | 32 | 26.98 | +18.6% | 26 | 11/17 | 8/12 | 3/5 | 1/2 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +19.0 | 73% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ OKC | 26 | 34.59 | -24.8% | 13 | 3/7 | 2/3 | 1/4 | 6/8 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -37.0 | 62% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs CLE | 31 | 34.97 | -11.3% | 14 | 4/8 | 3/5 | 1/3 | 5/6 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +4.0 | 66% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs WAS | 33 | 34.7 | -4.9% | 21 | 8/16 | 7/13 | 1/3 | 4/6 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +25.0 | 56% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs BKN | 37 | 32.94 | +12.3% | 14 | 5/11 | 5/10 | 0/1 | 4/7 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +19.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ IND | 34 | 31.84 | +6.8% | 23 | 9/17 | 9/16 | 0/1 | 5/5 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +24.0 | 60% |
| 2026-03-23 | @ DET | 39 | 31.38 | +24.3% | 12 | 4/10 | 3/8 | 1/2 | 3/3 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -8.0 | 53% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ ORL | 34 | 31.18 | +9.1% | 12 | 5/13 | 5/11 | 0/2 | 2/2 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +4.0 | 43% |
| 2026-03-19 | @ MIA | 38 | 26.05 | +45.9% | 19 | 8/12 | 8/12 | 0/0 | 3/5 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +4.0 | 67% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS57.9%33/57 games
10+ REBOUNDS7.0%4/57 games
5+ ASSISTS82.5%47/57 games
2+ THREES38.6%22/57 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | LAL | 57 | 33.3 | 20.7 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 51.6% | 32.0% | 73.7% |
| 2024–25 | LAL | 69 | 34.9 | 24.3 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 51.2% | 37.5% | 78.5% |
| 2023–24 | LAL | 71 | 35.3 | 25.7 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 54.0% | 41.0% | 75.0% |
| 2022–23 | LAL | 55 | 35.5 | 28.9 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 50.0% | 32.1% | 76.8% |
| 2021–22 | LAL | 54 | 37.2 | 29.9 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 52.3% | 35.4% | 75.6% |
| 2020–21 | LAL | 45 | 33.4 | 25.0 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 51.3% | 36.5% | 69.8% |
| 2019–20 | LAL | 67 | 34.6 | 25.3 | 7.8 | 10.2 | 49.4% | 34.8% | 69.3% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | LAL | 67 | 57.5 | #33 / 409 | 25.7M | High Value |
| 2024–25 | LAL | 74 | 64.2 | #10 / 422 | 28M | High Value |
| 2023–24 | LAL | 78 | 67.7 | #7 / 409 | 28.6M | High Value |
| 2022–23 | LAL | 72 | 61.5 | #18 / 408 | 27.1M | High Value |
| 2021–22 | LAL | 54 | 64.9 | #9 / 423 | 26.1M | High Value |
| 2020–21 | LAL | 52 | 64.4 | #12 / 410 | 25.4M | High Value |
| 2019–20 | LAL | 88 | 66.9 | #5 / 385 | 29.6M | High Value |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER57.5descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#33of 409 ranked
PH$25.7MHigh Value
SAMPLE67observed games
Ball security55
Box defence37
Creation80
Efficiency55
Rebounding27
Scoring76
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+16.8 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-5.7 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGESTABLE+0.1 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY96-1.0 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
LAL
Los Angeles Lakers
EXPECTED MIN29.5
SCORING SHARE17.7%
CREATION SHARE27.9%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR78.8%
+6.56 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 46 normal-load / 7 nonparticipation games.