Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Gary Payton II
Golden State Warriors current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER54.52025–26
NBA RANK#58of 409
PH$18.6MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN21.4governed role
NEXT GAME@ Los Angeles Lakers2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.3 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN15.3
PTS7.3
REB3.6
AST1.7
STL0.9
BLK0.3
3PM0.5
FG%57.7%
3P%28.5%
FT%69.4%
+/--1.7
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Golden State Warriors
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL12minutes
EXPECTED19.12pregame reference
DEVIATION-37.2%low minutes deviation
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G9.6 PTS · 2.6 REB · 1.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G12.8 PTS · 3.6 REB · 1.6 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G9.7 PTS · 4.2 REB · 1.3 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G9.4 PTS · 2.3 REB · 1.9 AST
creation↓
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring↑
HOT historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS57.3%801/1397
2-POINT69.1%645/933
3-POINT33.6%156/464
FREE THROW65.5%112/171
EFFECTIVE FG%62.9%
TRUE SHOOTING%63.5%
AST / TO1.91
PTS PER 3614.27rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 156 | 15.67 | 6.27 | 3.11 | 1.37 | 0.47 | 0.98 | 0.22 |
| Away | 149 | 15.25 | 5.99 | 3.09 | 1.14 | 0.56 | 1.01 | 0.36 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.0 | +0.2 | -0.1 | -0.0 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.26 | high |
| minutes | 10 | 15 | 21.2 | 15.46 | medium |
| points | 2 | 5 | 10 | 6.13 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3.1 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES41.3% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | @ LAC | 12 | 19.12 | -37.2% | 2 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2.0 | 50% |
| 2026-04-10 | @ SAC | 15 | 17.49 | -14.3% | 10 | 5/6 | 5/6 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -11.0 | 83% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs LAL | 14 | 18.56 | -24.6% | 10 | 4/4 | 4/4 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +12.0 | 102% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs SAC | 25 | 18.91 | +32.2% | 12 | 5/7 | 5/6 | 0/1 | 2/2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +7.0 | 76% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs HOU | 25 | 19.21 | +30.1% | 14 | 6/11 | 6/8 | 0/3 | 2/2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3.0 | 59% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs CLE | 27 | 15.59 | +73.1% | 8 | 4/9 | 4/7 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +8.0 | 44% |
| 2026-03-29 | @ DEN | 21 | 19.55 | +7.4% | 16 | 7/8 | 6/6 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -2.0 | 95% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs WAS | 25 | 18.96 | +31.9% | 15 | 7/11 | 7/10 | 0/1 | 1/3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +4.0 | 61% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs BKN | 24 | 17.41 | +37.8% | 10 | 5/5 | 5/5 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-20 | @ DET | 25 | 20.21 | +23.7% | 14 | 6/8 | 5/6 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3.0 | 79% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/70 games
10+ REBOUNDS5.7%4/70 games
5+ ASSISTS7.1%5/70 games
2+ THREES12.9%9/70 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | GSW | 70 | 15.3 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 57.7% | 28.5% | 69.4% |
| 2024–25 | GSW | 59 | 14.8 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 57.4% | 33.3% | 71.4% |
| 2023–24 | GSW | 44 | 15.6 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 56.3% | 36.4% | 60.9% |
| 2022–23 | PORGSW | 22 | 16.7 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 59.4% | 50.0% | 85.7% |
| 2021–22 | GSW | 71 | 17.6 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 61.6% | 35.8% | 60.3% |
| 2020–21 | GSW | 10 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 76.9% | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| 2019–20 | WAS | 29 | 14.9 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 41.4% | 28.3% | 50.0% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | GSW | 72 | 54.5 | #58 / 409 | 18.6M | Core |
| 2024–25 | GSW | 71 | 51.3 | #112 / 422 | 15.3M | Core |
| 2023–24 | GSW | 44 | 46.9 | #151 / 409 | 12.2M | Rotation |
| 2022–23 | POR | 34 | 49.3 | #106 / 408 | 13.1M | Rotation |
| 2021–22 | GSW | 83 | 54.0 | #66 / 423 | 19.7M | Core |
| 2019–20 | WAS | 36 | 32.4 | #313 / 385 | 6M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER54.5descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#58of 409 ranked
PH$18.6MCore
SAMPLE72observed games
Ball security47
Box defence56
Creation43
Efficiency68
Rebounding57
Scoring43
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+43.0 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+12.4 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+5.8 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY52-0.3 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
GSW
Golden State Warriors
EXPECTED MIN13.3
SCORING SHARE6.3%
CREATION SHARE5.7%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR79.7%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.