Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Dwight Powell
Dallas Mavericks current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER49.82025–26
NBA RANK#112of 409
PH$13.7MRotation · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN18.7governed role
NEXT GAME@ Houston Rockets2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.3 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN14.4
PTS3.2
REB3.8
AST1.0
STL0.5
BLK0.4
3PM0.0
FG%66.3%
3P%0.0%
FT%65.0%
+/-+0.9
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Dallas Mavericks
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED10.24pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G2.4 PTS · 4.6 REB · 1.8 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G0.4 PTS · 1 REB · 0.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT7 G1.71 PTS · 3.43 REB · 1.29 AST
creation↑
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring↑
HOT historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS67.2%898/1336
2-POINT70.8%867/1225
3-POINT27.9%31/111
FREE THROW71.5%590/825
EFFECTIVE FG%68.4%
TRUE SHOOTING%71.1%
AST / TO1.64
PTS PER 3611.81rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 213 | 17.56 | 5.87 | 3.98 | 1.08 | 0.06 | 0.58 | 0.38 |
| Away | 208 | 17.43 | 5.61 | 4.09 | 1.17 | 0.09 | 0.5 | 0.45 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.1 | +0.3 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.0 | +0.1 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.12 | high |
| minutes | 9 | 18 | 25.3 | 17.49 | medium |
| points | 1 | 4 | 10 | 5.74 | high |
| rebounds | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4.03 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES81.9% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | vs ORL | 25 | 10.24 | +144.2% | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -11.0 | — |
| 2026-03-27 | @ POR | 21 | 7.2 | +191.7% | 4 | 2/3 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +1.0 | 52% |
| 2026-03-18 | vs ATL | 3 | 11.52 | -74% | 2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +4.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-13 | vs CLE | 21 | 10.95 | +91.8% | 11 | 4/5 | 4/5 | 0/0 | 3/3 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -24.0 | 87% |
| 2026-03-08 | @ TOR | 5 | 12.98 | -61.5% | 0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -6.0 | — |
| 2026-03-06 | @ BOS | 15 | 10.84 | +38.4% | 2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -10.0 | 114% |
| 2026-03-05 | @ ORL | 20 | 8.32 | +140.5% | 2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-03 | @ CHA | 26 | 8.26 | +214.8% | 12 | 3/5 | 3/5 | 0/0 | 6/8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -8.0 | 70% |
| 2026-03-01 | vs OKC | 21 | 5.51 | +281% | 9 | 4/5 | 4/5 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4.0 | 77% |
| 2026-02-26 | vs SAC | 13 | 5 | +160% | 2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 69% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/50 games
10+ REBOUNDS8.0%4/50 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/50 games
2+ THREES0.0%0/50 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | DAL | 50 | 14.4 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 66.3% | 0.0% | 65.0% |
| 2024–25 | DAL | 52 | 10.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 70.7% | 50.0% | 63.4% |
| 2023–24 | DAL | 63 | 13.3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 67.9% | 33.3% | 70.8% |
| 2022–23 | DAL | 76 | 19.2 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 73.2% | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| 2021–22 | DAL | 82 | 21.9 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 67.1% | 35.1% | 78.3% |
| 2020–21 | DAL | 58 | 16.6 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 62.2% | 23.8% | 78.2% |
| 2019–20 | DAL | 40 | 26.5 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 63.8% | 25.6% | 66.7% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | DAL | 51 | 49.8 | #112 / 409 | 13.7M | Rotation |
| 2024–25 | DAL | 53 | 53.8 | #78 / 422 | 14.9M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | DAL | 75 | 54.1 | #75 / 409 | 16.6M | Core |
| 2022–23 | DAL | 76 | 50.3 | #94 / 408 | 17.2M | Core |
| 2021–22 | DAL | 100 | 52.5 | #81 / 423 | 21M | Core |
| 2020–21 | DAL | 70 | 55.9 | #50 / 410 | 18.4M | Core |
| 2019–20 | DAL | 41 | 54.0 | #56 / 385 | 18.2M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER49.8descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#112of 409 ranked
PH$13.7MRotation
SAMPLE51observed games
Ball security10
Box defence46
Creation24
Efficiency90
Rebounding67
Scoring10
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+38.7 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-8.9 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+4.5 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY46-0.3 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
DAL
Dallas Mavericks
EXPECTED MIN9.8
SCORING SHARE2.5%
CREATION SHARE3.7%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR66.7%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.