Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
De'Anthony Melton
Golden State Warriors current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER39.72025–26
NBA RANK#256of 409
PH$9.1MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN23.0governed role
NEXT GAME@ Los Angeles Lakers2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT+0.1 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN22.7
PTS12.2
REB3.1
AST2.5
STL1.5
BLK0.4
3PM1.6
FG%40.1%
3P%30.5%
FT%81.1%
+/-+2.0
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Golden State Warriors
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL19minutes
EXPECTED21.65pregame reference
DEVIATION-12.2%role consistent
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G10 PTS · 3 REB · 3.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G13.2 PTS · 3.6 REB · 2.6 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G6.9 PTS · 3.1 REB · 2.5 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G14.6 PTS · 3.7 REB · 2.8 AST
creation→
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS41.0%1241/3024
2-POINT46.3%659/1424
3-POINT36.4%582/1600
FREE THROW78.8%453/575
EFFECTIVE FG%50.7%
TRUE SHOOTING%53.7%
AST / TO1.92
PTS PER 3615.5rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 175 | 23.07 | 10.02 | 3.75 | 2.81 | 1.77 | 1.29 | 0.47 |
| Away | 175 | 23.59 | 10.07 | 3.79 | 2.55 | 1.55 | 1.55 | 0.49 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.5 | -0.1 | -0.0 | +0.3 | +0.2 | -0.3 | -0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2.68 | high |
| minutes | 17.8 | 23 | 29 | 23.33 | low |
| points | 5 | 9 | 15 | 10.05 | high |
| rebounds | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3.77 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES41.1% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | @ LAC | 19 | 21.65 | -12.2% | 4 | 1/6 | 1/3 | 0/3 | 2/2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4.0 | 29% |
| 2026-04-10 | @ SAC | 28 | 17.91 | +56.3% | 17 | 5/9 | 2/3 | 3/6 | 4/4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -14.0 | 79% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs LAL | 15 | 19.37 | -22.6% | 2 | 1/5 | 1/2 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -12.0 | 20% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs SAC | 29 | 15.22 | +90.5% | 21 | 7/12 | 3/6 | 4/6 | 3/5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1.0 | 74% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs HOU | 23 | 16.41 | +40.2% | 6 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -7.0 | 75% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs CLE | 26 | 14.99 | +73.4% | 5 | 2/12 | 1/7 | 1/5 | 0/0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -15.0 | 21% |
| 2026-03-29 | @ DEN | 25 | 17.42 | +43.5% | 0 | 0/5 | 0/2 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -29.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs BKN | 28 | 17.55 | +59.5% | 14 | 5/12 | 4/7 | 1/5 | 3/4 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +16.0 | 51% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ ATL | 22 | 14.64 | +50.3% | 20 | 7/15 | 5/8 | 2/7 | 4/4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -17.0 | 60% |
| 2026-03-20 | @ DET | 23 | 13.6 | +69.2% | 14 | 5/14 | 3/8 | 2/6 | 2/3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -21.0 | 46% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS22.2%10/45 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/45 games
5+ ASSISTS11.1%5/45 games
2+ THREES48.9%22/45 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | GSW | 45 | 22.7 | 12.2 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 40.1% | 30.5% | 81.1% |
| 2024–25 | GSW | 5 | 20.4 | 10.2 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 41.9% | 40.7% | 66.7% |
| 2023–24 | PHI | 38 | 26.9 | 11.1 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 38.6% | 36.0% | 83.5% |
| 2022–23 | PHI | 77 | 27.9 | 10.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 42.5% | 39.0% | 79.3% |
| 2021–22 | MEM | 73 | 22.7 | 10.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 40.4% | 37.4% | 75.0% |
| 2020–21 | MEM | 52 | 20.1 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 43.8% | 41.2% | 80.4% |
| 2019–20 | MEM | 60 | 19.4 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 40.2% | 28.6% | 76.9% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | GSW | 47 | 39.7 | #256 / 409 | 9.1M | Depth |
| 2023–24 | PHI | 39 | 41.7 | #224 / 409 | 10.1M | Rotation |
| 2022–23 | PHI | 88 | 37.7 | #287 / 408 | 10.5M | Rotation |
| 2021–22 | MEM | 85 | 43.0 | #212 / 423 | 13.1M | Rotation |
| 2020–21 | MEM | 61 | 45.6 | #167 / 410 | 12.8M | Rotation |
| 2019–20 | MEM | 72 | 38.5 | #249 / 385 | 9M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER39.7descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#256of 409 ranked
PH$9.1MDepth
SAMPLE47observed games
Ball security55
Box defence57
Creation37
Efficiency25
Rebounding26
Scoring62
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-9.5 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT—two eligible completed seasons required
ROLE CHANGESTABLE+0.2 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY19+0.1 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
GSW
Golden State Warriors
EXPECTED MIN17.7
SCORING SHARE11.0%
CREATION SHARE8.3%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR71.7%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.