Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Grayson Allen
Charlotte Hornets current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER47.22025–26
NBA RANK#142of 409
PH$15.6MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN23.1governed role
NEXT GAME@ Brooklyn Nets2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.4 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN29.2
PTS16.6
REB3.0
AST3.9
STL1.3
BLK0.3
3PM3.1
FG%40.2%
3P%34.8%
FT%85.9%
+/-+0.1
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Charlotte Hornets
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED20.28pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G3.2 PTS · 1.6 REB · 0.6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G18.6 PTS · 2.2 REB · 4.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G6 PTS · 1.7 REB · 0.8 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G18.2 PTS · 3.2 REB · 4.3 AST
creation→
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS44.6%1605/3596
2-POINT52.5%631/1201
3-POINT40.7%974/2395
FREE THROW86.6%658/760
EFFECTIVE FG%58.2%
TRUE SHOOTING%61.6%
AST / TO2.19
PTS PER 3615.58rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 205 | 27.14 | 11.88 | 3.41 | 2.49 | 2.43 | 0.91 | 0.3 |
| Away | 207 | 27.17 | 11.63 | 3.03 | 2.24 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.28 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.0 | +0.3 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2.37 | high |
| minutes | 22 | 28 | 33 | 27.16 | low |
| points | 6 | 11 | 17 | 11.75 | high |
| rebounds | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3.22 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES10.2% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS20.5%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | @ LAL | 13 | 19.39 | -33% | 8 | 2/7 | 1/2 | 1/5 | 3/3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +5.0 | 48% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs HOU | 26 | 16.17 | +60.8% | 8 | 1/4 | 1/2 | 0/2 | 6/6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -18.0 | 60% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ CHA | 25 | 12.39 | +101.8% | 13 | 4/10 | 2/4 | 2/6 | 3/5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -16.0 | 53% |
| 2026-03-31 | @ ORL | 32 | 8.23 | +289% | 10 | 4/14 | 2/4 | 2/10 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -5.0 | 36% |
| 2026-03-24 | vs DEN | 23 | 8.08 | +184.5% | 21 | 8/19 | 3/7 | 5/12 | 0/0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -16.0 | 55% |
| 2026-03-16 | @ BOS | 22 | 22.82 | -3.6% | 13 | 3/7 | 1/1 | 2/6 | 5/6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5.0 | 67% |
| 2026-03-13 | @ TOR | 29 | 21.3 | +36.1% | 15 | 3/7 | 2/3 | 1/4 | 8/10 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8.0 | 66% |
| 2026-03-10 | @ MIL | 26 | 20.99 | +23.9% | 12 | 4/8 | 2/3 | 2/5 | 2/3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +13.0 | 64% |
| 2026-03-06 | vs NOP | 29 | 20.04 | +44.7% | 12 | 4/10 | 2/2 | 2/8 | 2/2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1.0 | 55% |
| 2026-03-05 | vs CHI | 33 | 19.56 | +68.7% | 21 | 6/19 | 1/3 | 5/16 | 4/4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +9.0 | 51% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS26.5%13/49 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/49 games
5+ ASSISTS38.8%19/49 games
2+ THREES75.5%37/49 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | PHX | 49 | 29.2 | 16.6 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 40.2% | 34.8% | 85.9% |
| 2024–25 | PHX | 64 | 24.1 | 10.6 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 44.8% | 42.6% | 81.6% |
| 2023–24 | PHX | 75 | 33.5 | 13.5 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 49.9% | 46.1% | 87.8% |
| 2022–23 | MIL | 72 | 27.4 | 10.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 44.0% | 39.9% | 90.5% |
| 2021–22 | MIL | 64 | 27.3 | 11.3 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 45.1% | 41.4% | 86.5% |
| 2020–21 | MEM | 50 | 25.2 | 10.6 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 41.8% | 39.1% | 86.8% |
| 2019–20 | MEM | 38 | 18.9 | 8.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 46.6% | 40.4% | 86.7% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | PHX | 51 | 47.2 | #142 / 409 | 15.6M | Core |
| 2024–25 | PHX | 64 | 48.3 | #145 / 422 | 15.3M | Core |
| 2023–24 | PHX | 77 | 50.2 | #114 / 409 | 19.7M | Core |
| 2022–23 | MIL | 77 | 42.8 | #201 / 408 | 13.3M | Rotation |
| 2021–22 | MIL | 80 | 43.0 | #210 / 423 | 13.7M | Rotation |
| 2020–21 | MEM | 60 | 42.0 | #223 / 410 | 11.2M | Rotation |
| 2019–20 | MEM | 39 | 41.9 | #196 / 385 | 9.8M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER47.2descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#142of 409 ranked
PH$15.6MCore
SAMPLE51observed games
Ball security71
Box defence38
Creation56
Efficiency44
Rebounding15
Scoring65
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+18.1 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-0.4 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-5.7 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY33-0.4 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
PHX
Phoenix Suns
EXPECTED MIN18.6
SCORING SHARE15.2%
CREATION SHARE16.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR60.4%
+0.53 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 17 normal-load / 4 nonparticipation games.