Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Collin Sexton
Los Angeles Lakers current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER52.92025–26
NBA RANK#73of 409
PH$18.9MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN34.5governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Golden State Warriors2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-1.6 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN23.0
PTS15.0
REB2.1
AST3.4
STL1.0
BLK0.1
3PM1.6
FG%48.8%
3P%39.5%
FT%86.2%
+/--1.4
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Los Angeles Lakers
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED20.47pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G14.6 PTS · 1.6 REB · 3 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G2 PTS · 0.3 REB · 0.3 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G13.2 PTS · 2 REB · 2.9 AST
creation→
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring↑
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS48.1%2525/5246
2-POINT52.0%1947/3745
3-POINT38.5%578/1501
FREE THROW84.2%1433/1703
EFFECTIVE FG%53.6%
TRUE SHOOTING%58.9%
AST / TO1.64
PTS PER 3623.67rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 193 | 28.46 | 19.06 | 2.65 | 3.9 | 1.61 | 0.83 | 0.17 |
| Away | 185 | 28.36 | 18.29 | 2.72 | 3.72 | 1.45 | 0.9 | 0.12 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.1 | +0.8 | -0.1 | +0.2 | +0.2 | -0.1 | +0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3.81 | high |
| minutes | 21 | 29 | 34.8 | 28.41 | low |
| points | 13 | 19 | 25 | 18.68 | medium |
| rebounds | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2.68 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES92.4% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS92.4%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | @ SAS | 27 | 16.73 | +61.3% | 20 | 8/15 | 5/9 | 3/6 | 1/1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ PHI | 19 | 14.94 | +27.2% | 16 | 5/9 | 4/5 | 1/4 | 5/6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -29.0 | 69% |
| 2026-03-23 | vs HOU | 26 | 11.25 | +131.1% | 25 | 6/14 | 2/7 | 4/7 | 9/10 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +2.0 | 68% |
| 2026-03-19 | vs CLE | 19 | 11.96 | +58.9% | 9 | 3/11 | 2/6 | 1/5 | 2/2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -12.0 | 38% |
| 2026-03-18 | vs TOR | 18 | 12.94 | +39.1% | 14 | 4/7 | 4/6 | 0/1 | 6/8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -13.0 | 67% |
| 2026-03-08 | @ SAC | 22 | 27.38 | -19.7% | 28 | 9/12 | 2/3 | 7/9 | 3/4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -9.0 | 102% |
| 2026-03-05 | @ PHX | 38 | 23.83 | +59.5% | 30 | 11/19 | 9/12 | 2/7 | 6/8 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +11.0 | 67% |
| 2026-03-03 | vs OKC | 28 | 21.61 | +29.6% | 20 | 6/14 | 3/6 | 3/8 | 5/6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -2.0 | 60% |
| 2026-03-01 | vs MIL | 32 | 18.62 | +71.9% | 22 | 9/14 | 6/6 | 3/8 | 1/1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +28.0 | 76% |
| 2026-02-26 | vs POR | 18 | 20.17 | -10.8% | 10 | 4/9 | 2/2 | 2/7 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7.0 | 56% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS22.4%13/58 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/58 games
5+ ASSISTS24.1%14/58 games
2+ THREES46.6%27/58 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | CHACHI | 58 | 23.0 | 15.0 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 48.8% | 39.5% | 86.2% |
| 2024–25 | UTA | 62 | 28.1 | 18.4 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 47.6% | 40.2% | 87.0% |
| 2023–24 | UTA | 78 | 26.6 | 18.7 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 48.8% | 39.4% | 86.0% |
| 2022–23 | UTA | 48 | 23.9 | 14.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 50.5% | 39.3% | 81.9% |
| 2021–22 | CLE | 11 | 28.8 | 16.0 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 45.3% | 24.4% | 74.4% |
| 2020–21 | CLE | 59 | 35.3 | 24.4 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 47.6% | 37.5% | 81.2% |
| 2019–20 | CLE | 62 | 33.0 | 20.8 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 47.4% | 37.8% | 84.5% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | CHI | 58 | 52.9 | #73 / 409 | 18.9M | Core |
| 2024–25 | UTA | 62 | 50.1 | #123 / 422 | 17.1M | Core |
| 2023–24 | UTA | 78 | 59.2 | #33 / 409 | 24M | Core |
| 2022–23 | UTA | 48 | 49.1 | #108 / 408 | 15.3M | Core |
| 2020–21 | CLE | 59 | 50.6 | #103 / 410 | 20.1M | Core |
| 2019–20 | CLE | 62 | 43.9 | #166 / 385 | 15.5M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER52.9descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#73of 409 ranked
PH$18.9MCore
SAMPLE58observed games
Ball security44
Box defence34
Creation51
Efficiency66
Rebounding11
Scoring79
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+4.5 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+11.3 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+11.5 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY86-1.6 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
CHA
Charlotte Hornets
EXPECTED MIN16.3
SCORING SHARE12.7%
CREATION SHARE13.8%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR69.4%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.
CHI
Chicago Bulls
EXPECTED MIN19.6
SCORING SHARE13.8%
CREATION SHARE8.5%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR76.6%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.