Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Herbert Jones
New Orleans Pelicans current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER27.02025–26
NBA RANK#397of 409
PH$6.4MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Indiana Pacers2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN28.6
PTS8.9
REB3.5
AST2.8
STL1.5
BLK0.5
3PM1.4
FG%38.1%
3P%30.4%
FT%79.7%
+/--1.0
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · New Orleans Pelicans
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED17.37pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G1.6 PTS · 0.8 REB · 0.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G9.2 PTS · 2.8 REB · 3.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G4.2 PTS · 1.5 REB · 1.5 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G10.7 PTS · 3.3 REB · 2.8 AST
creation→
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS45.8%1045/2282
2-POINT53.3%724/1358
3-POINT34.7%321/924
FREE THROW82.1%477/581
EFFECTIVE FG%52.8%
TRUE SHOOTING%56.9%
AST / TO1.92
PTS PER 3611.92rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 147 | 30.19 | 10.29 | 3.9 | 2.54 | 1.12 | 1.58 | 0.68 |
| Away | 144 | 29.75 | 9.56 | 3.62 | 2.5 | 1.09 | 1.56 | 0.67 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.4 | +0.7 | +0.3 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2.52 | high |
| minutes | 25 | 31 | 35.4 | 29.97 | low |
| points | 5 | 10 | 14 | 9.92 | high |
| rebounds | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3.76 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES10.3% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | vs ORL | 9 | 27.4 | -67.2% | 5 | 2/4 | 1/1 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +8.0 | 63% |
| 2026-04-03 | @ SAC | 13 | 30.12 | -56.8% | 3 | 1/3 | 0/1 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 50% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ POR | 26 | 31.12 | -16.5% | 9 | 3/9 | 1/4 | 2/5 | 1/2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -9.0 | 46% |
| 2026-03-29 | vs HOU | 30 | 31.27 | -4.1% | 10 | 3/10 | 1/4 | 2/6 | 2/2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -5.0 | 46% |
| 2026-03-27 | @ TOR | 27 | 33.04 | -18.3% | 2 | 1/8 | 1/4 | 0/4 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -8.0 | 13% |
| 2026-03-24 | @ NYK | 37 | 31.91 | +15.9% | 13 | 6/8 | 5/6 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | +2.0 | 81% |
| 2026-03-21 | vs CLE | 31 | 31.06 | -0.2% | 12 | 4/12 | 0/1 | 4/11 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -7.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-19 | vs LAC | 30 | 31.46 | -4.7% | 11 | 4/11 | 1/4 | 3/7 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +12.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-13 | @ HOU | 35 | 29.13 | +20.1% | 8 | 2/12 | 1/5 | 1/7 | 3/5 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | +3.0 | 28% |
| 2026-03-11 | vs TOR | 36 | 28.99 | +24.2% | 16 | 6/9 | 2/3 | 4/6 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +21.0 | 89% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/52 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/52 games
5+ ASSISTS17.3%9/52 games
2+ THREES40.4%21/52 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | NOP | 52 | 27.0 | #397 / 409 | 6.4M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | NOP | 20 | 37.0 | #315 / 422 | 6.9M | Depth |
| 2023–24 | NOP | 81 | 45.0 | #172 / 409 | 16.1M | Core |
| 2022–23 | NOP | 67 | 38.4 | #277 / 408 | 9.8M | Depth |
| 2021–22 | NOP | 86 | 38.2 | #290 / 423 | 11.4M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER27.0descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#397of 409 ranked
PH$6.4MDepth
SAMPLE52observed games
Ball security48
Box defence51
Creation41
Efficiency12
Rebounding20
Scoring22
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT-22.5 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-28.6 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
NOP
New Orleans Pelicans
EXPECTED MIN20.1
SCORING SHARE8.0%
CREATION SHARE10.4%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR63.9%
+0.18 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 30 normal-load / 3 nonparticipation games.