CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

Al Horford

Golden State Warriors current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.

Golden State Warriors · current teamC-FDominican RepublicFlorida

AF-PLAYER43.72025–26

NBA RANK#197of 409

PH$10.8MRotation · fictional game currency

STATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status

EXPECTED MIN21.4governed role

NEXT GAME@ Los Angeles Lakers2026-10-21 WHAT IF IMPACT+0.9 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual

REGULAR-SEASON GAMES393

Player-safe accepted corpus.

CAREER PPG · CORPUS10.0

2019–20 through 2025–26 window.

CAREER RPG · CORPUS6.4

Historical window, not full NBA career.

CAREER APG · CORPUS3.0

Historical window, not full NBA career.

LATEST COMPLETED SEASON

2025–26

43 games

MIN21.4

PTS8.0

REB4.7

AST2.5

STL0.6

BLK1.2

3PM1.7

FG%41.6%

3P%36.4%

FT%82.6%

+/--0.5

NEXT GAME

Current context

2026–27 · Golden State Warriors

Assigned schedule

NBA Official roster

2026-10-21 · AWAY@ Los Angeles Lakers34.7% winProjected 112–115

2026-10-23 · HOMEvs Memphis Grizzlies62.5% winProjected 113–116

2026-10-24 · AWAY@ Phoenix Suns38.4% winProjected 112–115

2026-10-26 · AWAY@ Denver Nuggets36.9% winProjected 113–117

2026-10-28 · AWAY@ Minnesota Timberwolves40.0% winProjected 112–115

E66 · PLAYER PROJECTION

Loading next-game projection…

PTS / REB / AST / 3PM use a separately validated player-stat model. Game Win, projected team score, Form and milestones keep their own authorities.

Current team Open Player What If

MINUTES + FORM

Role-adjusted performance

CURRENT FORM · 2026–27

Waiting for completed player boxscores

PRESEASON / NO SAMPLE

ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.

LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26

Historical Minutes Intelligence

DESCRIPTIVE · NOT CURRENT

Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.

LATEST ACTUAL19minutes

EXPECTED3.54pregame reference

DEVIATION+436.8%expanded minutes

LAST 5

ALL OBSERVED5 G3 PTS · 0.8 REB · 0.8 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G9.8 PTS · 5.2 REB · 3 AST

LAST 10

ALL OBSERVED10 G1.5 PTS · 0.4 REB · 0.4 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT8 G8.88 PTS · 5 REB · 2.5 AST

creation→

efficiency→

minutes→

rebounding→

scoring→

STEADY historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.

SPLITS + EFFICIENCY

How the production is built

EFFICIENCY

Shooting, derived from the box score

CAREER · 393 GAMES

2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.

FIELD GOALS45.8%1501/3281

2-POINT55.0%824/1498

3-POINT38.0%677/1783

FREE THROW81.9%253/309

EFFECTIVE FG%56.1%

TRUE SHOOTING%57.5%

AST / TO3.44

PTS PER 3612.87rate, not projection

HOME / AWAY

Where the games were played

199 HOME · 194 AWAY

Split	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK
Home	199	27.98	10.61	6.56	3.17	1.88	0.61	1.09
Away	194	27.98	9.38	6.31	2.85	1.56	0.7	0.94
Home − Away	—	0.0	+1.2	+0.3	+0.3	+0.3	-0.1	+0.1

Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.

CONSISTENCY

What the average hides

393 GAMES

Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.

Category	Floor	Median	Ceiling	Mean	Volatility
assists	1	3	5	3.01	high
minutes	23	29	33	27.98	low
points	6	9	14.6	10.01	high
rebounds	4	6	9	6.44	medium

Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.

DOUBLE-DOUBLES

Observed frequency across the corpus

393 GAMES

DOUBLE-DOUBLES389.7% of games

TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games

10+ ASSISTS10.3%

10+ BLOCKS00.0%

Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.

GAME LOG · 2025–26

One log, the window you choose

10 games

Date	Opp	MIN	EXP MIN	MIN Δ	PTS	FG	2P	3P	FT	OR	DR	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	+/-	TS%
2026-04-12	@ LAC	19	3.54	+436.8%	5	2/5	1/1	1/4	0/0	0	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	+10.0	50%
2026-04-10	@ SAC	18	—	—	10	4/8	2/4	2/4	0/0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	1	-10.0	63%
2026-03-13	vs MIN	5	22.94	-78.2%	3	1/3	0/0	1/3	0/0	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	-3.0	50%
2026-03-10	vs CHI	34	21.48	+58.3%	13	5/18	2/8	3/10	0/0	3	6	9	5	0	4	1	1	-7.0	36%
2026-03-07	@ OKC	29	21.37	+35.7%	4	2/6	2/3	0/3	0/0	1	4	5	4	0	1	1	1	-9.0	33%
2026-03-05	@ HOU	33	20.41	+61.7%	17	7/15	4/9	3/6	0/0	2	4	6	5	1	2	1	0	+7.0	57%
2026-03-02	vs LAC	27	20.47	+31.9%	17	5/11	1/3	4/8	3/5	2	4	6	3	0	1	0	2	-15.0	64%
2026-02-28	vs LAL	22	21.13	+4.1%	8	2/3	0/0	2/3	2/2	0	5	5	2	0	2	0	1	-5.0	103%
2026-02-25	@ MEM	27	20.48	+31.8%	10	4/10	2/4	2/6	0/0	2	5	7	3	0	1	0	1	+12.0	50%
2026-02-22	vs DEN	27	22.7	+19%	22	8/11	2/4	6/7	0/0	0	1	1	7	3	2	2	0	+14.0	100%

All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.

HISTORY

Season and milestone evidence

DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26

How often did the threshold occur?

historical frequency

These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.

20+ POINTS2.3%1/43 games

10+ REBOUNDS2.3%1/43 games

5+ ASSISTS16.3%7/43 games

2+ THREES48.8%21/43 games

SEASON HISTORY

Regular-season production

accepted player-safe games

Season	Team(s)	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
2025–26	GSW	43	21.4	8.0	4.7	2.5	41.6%	36.4%	82.6%
2024–25	BOS	59	27.7	8.9	6.1	2.2	42.1%	36.0%	89.5%
2023–24	BOS	64	26.7	8.6	6.3	2.6	51.2%	41.7%	86.7%
2022–23	BOS	63	30.5	9.8	6.2	3.0	47.6%	44.6%	71.4%
2021–22	BOS	69	29.1	10.2	7.7	3.4	46.8%	33.6%	84.2%
2020–21	OKC	28	27.9	14.2	6.7	3.4	45.0%	36.8%	81.8%
2019–20	PHI	67	30.2	11.9	6.8	4.0	45.0%	35.0%	76.3%

AF-PLAYER HISTORY

Season by season

Season	Team	G	AF-Player	Rank	PH$	Band
2025–26	GSW	45	43.7	#197 / 409	10.8M	Rotation
2024–25	BOS	70	40.8	#259 / 422	11.4M	Rotation
2023–24	BOS	83	53.1	#83 / 409	21.2M	Core
2022–23	BOS	83	47.4	#133 / 408	18.6M	Core
2021–22	BOS	92	52.8	#77 / 423	23.5M	Core
2020–21	OKC	29	51.4	#97 / 410	14.7M	Rotation
2019–20	PHI	71	45.7	#143 / 385	17.2M	Core

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.

CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY

Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.

governed identity

Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.

Open team profile

IMPACT

Rating and role context

AF-PLAYER

Measured production, 2025–26

#197 OF 409

AF-PLAYER43.7descriptive index, not a win probability

NBA RANK#197of 409 ranked

PH$10.8MRotation

SAMPLE45observed games

Ball security

Box defence

Creation

Efficiency

Rebounding

Scoring

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.

E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Distinct signals, side by side

descriptive · current role + historical rating

Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.

VALUE OVER ROLE+8.9 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct

AF MOVEMENT+13.2 pp2024–25 → 2025–26

ROLE CHANGESTABLE-0.2 min vs latest observed MPG

STAR DEPENDENCY67+0.9 pp next-game What If impact

Player movement Opportunities Compare players

Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.

PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26

Pregame role and with/without context

descriptive · not causal

Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.

GSW

Golden State Warriors

EXPECTED MIN12.7

SCORING SHARE6.5%

CREATION SHARE7.8%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR56.9%

With/without sample did not qualify for publication.