Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Luka Doncic
Los Angeles Lakers current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER66.32025–26
NBA RANK#5of 409
PH$27.8MHigh Value · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN42.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Golden State Warriors2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-2.7 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN35.8
PTS33.4
REB7.8
AST8.3
STL1.7
BLK0.5
3PM3.9
FG%47.4%
3P%36.3%
FT%78.4%
+/-+3.2
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Los Angeles Lakers
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED14.53pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G34 PTS · 6 REB · 7 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G13.8 PTS · 2.3 REB · 2.9 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G36.9 PTS · 6.8 REB · 7.3 AST
creation↓
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS47.4%4525/9546
2-POINT56.3%3068/5449
3-POINT35.6%1457/4097
FREE THROW76.1%2928/3845
EFFECTIVE FG%55.0%
TRUE SHOOTING%59.8%
AST / TO2.13
PTS PER 3630.98rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 232 | 35.43 | 30.93 | 8.67 | 8.71 | 3.22 | 1.27 | 0.51 |
| Away | 208 | 35.53 | 30.09 | 8.57 | 8.52 | 3.41 | 1.38 | 0.45 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.1 | +0.8 | +0.1 | +0.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 | +0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 6 | 8 | 11 | 8.62 | medium |
| minutes | 32 | 36.3 | 39 | 35.48 | low |
| points | 24 | 30 | 38 | 30.53 | low |
| rebounds | 6 | 9 | 11 | 8.62 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES24856.4% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES8118.4% of games
10+ ASSISTS16437.3%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | @ OKC | 26 | 31.57 | -17.6% | 12 | 3/10 | 2/3 | 1/7 | 5/6 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -25.0 | 48% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs CLE | 34 | 32.11 | +5.9% | 42 | 13/26 | 7/13 | 6/13 | 10/10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +21.0 | 69% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs BKN | 39 | 37.71 | +3.4% | 41 | 15/25 | 10/15 | 5/10 | 6/6 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 5 | +19.0 | 74% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ IND | 38 | 37.84 | +0.4% | 43 | 15/30 | 11/19 | 4/11 | 9/10 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | +6.0 | 63% |
| 2026-03-23 | @ DET | 39 | 37.91 | +2.9% | 32 | 11/29 | 8/16 | 3/13 | 7/8 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +7.0 | 49% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ ORL | 38 | 37.73 | +0.7% | 33 | 12/30 | 9/17 | 3/13 | 6/9 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +10.0 | 49% |
| 2026-03-19 | @ MIA | 38 | 36.97 | +2.8% | 60 | 18/30 | 9/13 | 9/17 | 15/19 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +7.0 | 78% |
| 2026-03-18 | @ HOU | 38 | 36.69 | +3.6% | 40 | 12/25 | 5/8 | 7/17 | 9/14 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2.0 | 64% |
| 2026-03-16 | @ HOU | 40 | 35.59 | +12.4% | 36 | 14/27 | 10/15 | 4/12 | 4/5 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +6.0 | 62% |
| 2026-03-14 | vs DEN | 43 | 35.63 | +20.7% | 30 | 10/26 | 6/12 | 4/14 | 6/9 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -4.0 | 50% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS93.7%59/63 games
10+ REBOUNDS30.2%19/63 games
5+ ASSISTS88.9%56/63 games
2+ THREES90.5%57/63 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | LAL | 63 | 35.8 | 33.4 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 47.4% | 36.3% | 78.4% |
| 2024–25 | LALDAL | 49 | 35.3 | 28.3 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 45.3% | 37.3% | 78.6% |
| 2023–24 | DAL | 70 | 37.5 | 33.9 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 48.7% | 38.2% | 78.6% |
| 2022–23 | DAL | 66 | 36.2 | 32.4 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 49.6% | 34.2% | 74.2% |
| 2021–22 | DAL | 65 | 35.4 | 28.4 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 45.7% | 35.3% | 74.4% |
| 2020–21 | DAL | 66 | 34.3 | 27.7 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 47.9% | 35.0% | 73.0% |
| 2019–20 | DAL | 61 | 33.6 | 28.8 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 46.3% | 31.6% | 75.8% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | LAL | 63 | 66.3 | #5 / 409 | 27.8M | High Value |
| 2024–25 | LAL | 54 | 63.6 | #13 / 422 | 25.3M | High Value |
| 2023–24 | DAL | 92 | 66.3 | #9 / 409 | 29.3M | High Value |
| 2022–23 | DAL | 66 | 67.3 | #5 / 408 | 27.2M | High Value |
| 2021–22 | DAL | 80 | 62.1 | #14 / 423 | 28.5M | High Value |
| 2020–21 | DAL | 73 | 62.9 | #17 / 410 | 28M | High Value |
| 2019–20 | DAL | 67 | 64.5 | #8 / 385 | 28M | High Value |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER66.3descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#5of 409 ranked
PH$27.8MHigh Value
SAMPLE63observed games
Ball security59
Box defence50
Creation77
Efficiency67
Rebounding34
Scoring92
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+3.8 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+1.9 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+6.2 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY100-2.7 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
LAL
Los Angeles Lakers
EXPECTED MIN27.2
SCORING SHARE29.5%
CREATION SHARE32.8%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR70.9%
+5.58 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 33 normal-load / 7 nonparticipation games.