Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Donovan Mitchell
Cleveland Cavaliers current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER56.62025–26
NBA RANK#42of 409
PH$26.2MHigh Value · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN37.2governed role
NEXT GAME@ Philadelphia 76ers2026-10-22WHAT IF IMPACT-2.1 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN33.4
PTS27.6
REB4.6
AST5.7
STL1.5
BLK0.3
3PM3.2
FG%47.8%
3P%36.4%
FT%86.4%
+/-+4.8
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Cleveland Cavaliers
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED25.24pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G6.2 PTS · 1.4 REB · 0.8 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G19 PTS · 5 REB · 4.6 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G10 PTS · 2.6 REB · 2.3 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G24.1 PTS · 4.5 REB · 5 AST
creation↓
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring↓
COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS45.8%4054/8853
2-POINT52.7%2610/4952
3-POINT37.0%1444/3901
FREE THROW85.5%2038/2384
EFFECTIVE FG%53.9%
TRUE SHOOTING%58.5%
AST / TO1.91
PTS PER 3627.69rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 224 | 33.39 | 26.32 | 4.64 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.41 | 0.31 |
| Away | 220 | 34.49 | 25.88 | 4.34 | 5.11 | 3.2 | 1.35 | 0.28 |
| Home − Away | — | -1.1 | +0.4 | +0.3 | -0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 3 | 5 | 7 | 5.11 | medium |
| minutes | 31 | 35 | 37 | 33.94 | low |
| points | 18 | 26 | 33.4 | 26.1 | medium |
| rebounds | 3 | 4 | 6 | 4.49 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES276.1% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS122.7%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | vs ATL | 35 | 30.5 | +14.7% | 31 | 12/19 | 11/15 | 1/4 | 6/6 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +20.0 | 72% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ GSW | 34 | 30.59 | +11.1% | 25 | 7/14 | 3/7 | 4/7 | 7/7 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +1.0 | 73% |
| 2026-03-31 | @ LAL | 24 | 27.82 | -13.7% | 10 | 4/10 | 4/7 | 0/3 | 2/2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -24.0 | 46% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs MIA | 31 | 27.48 | +12.8% | 6 | 1/10 | 1/7 | 0/3 | 4/4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +14.0 | 26% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs MIA | 33 | 25.47 | +29.6% | 28 | 12/22 | 8/13 | 4/9 | 0/0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -21.0 | 64% |
| 2026-03-24 | vs ORL | 35 | 24.16 | +44.8% | 42 | 14/22 | 11/15 | 3/7 | 11/11 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +2.0 | 78% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ NOP | 39 | 22.55 | +73% | 27 | 9/23 | 6/15 | 3/8 | 6/7 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3.0 | 52% |
| 2026-03-17 | @ MIL | 34 | 24.75 | +37.4% | 19 | 4/14 | 3/10 | 1/4 | 10/13 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -15.0 | 48% |
| 2026-03-13 | @ DAL | 29 | 20.64 | +40.5% | 24 | 11/16 | 10/12 | 1/4 | 1/1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +6.0 | 73% |
| 2026-03-11 | @ ORL | 36 | 15.79 | +128% | 25 | 9/24 | 5/11 | 4/13 | 3/3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 49% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS77.3%51/66 games
10+ REBOUNDS3.0%2/66 games
5+ ASSISTS71.2%47/66 games
2+ THREES83.3%55/66 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | CLE | 66 | 33.4 | 27.6 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 47.8% | 36.4% | 86.4% |
| 2024–25 | CLE | 67 | 31.7 | 24.0 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 44.0% | 36.5% | 82.6% |
| 2023–24 | CLE | 55 | 35.4 | 26.6 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 46.2% | 36.8% | 86.5% |
| 2022–23 | CLE | 68 | 35.8 | 28.3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 48.4% | 38.6% | 86.7% |
| 2021–22 | UTA | 66 | 33.8 | 26.1 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 45.0% | 35.9% | 85.3% |
| 2020–21 | UTA | 53 | 33.4 | 26.4 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 43.8% | 38.6% | 84.5% |
| 2019–20 | UTA | 69 | 34.3 | 24.0 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 44.9% | 36.6% | 86.3% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | CLE | 84 | 56.6 | #42 / 409 | 26.2M | High Value |
| 2024–25 | CLE | 76 | 57.3 | #44 / 422 | 24.8M | Core |
| 2023–24 | CLE | 65 | 59.3 | #32 / 409 | 25.2M | High Value |
| 2022–23 | CLE | 73 | 56.2 | #45 / 408 | 25.1M | High Value |
| 2021–22 | UTA | 72 | 54.1 | #64 / 423 | 23.6M | Core |
| 2020–21 | UTA | 63 | 55.3 | #55 / 410 | 23.8M | Core |
| 2019–20 | UTA | 76 | 51.0 | #86 / 385 | 22.4M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER56.6descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#42of 409 ranked
PH$26.2MHigh Value
SAMPLE84observed games
Ball security68
Box defence37
Creation55
Efficiency57
Rebounding19
Scoring94
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+7.5 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+0.2 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGESTABLE+3.2 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY95-2.1 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
CLE
Cleveland Cavaliers
EXPECTED MIN29.7
SCORING SHARE23.1%
CREATION SHARE19.4%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR79.9%
+4.53 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 62 normal-load / 7 nonparticipation games.