Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Jordan Walsh
Boston Celtics current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER40.62025–26
NBA RANK#238of 409
PH$10.2MRotation · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN4.8governed role
NEXT GAME@ Detroit Pistons2026-10-20WHAT IF IMPACT-1.3 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN18.0
PTS5.3
REB4.1
AST0.8
STL0.8
BLK0.5
3PM0.7
FG%50.4%
3P%37.0%
FT%77.2%
+/-+1.6
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Boston Celtics
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL33minutes
EXPECTED15.66pregame reference
DEVIATION+110.7%expanded minutes
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G6.6 PTS · 3.6 REB · 1.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G5.6 PTS · 2.4 REB · 0.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G4.9 PTS · 3.3 REB · 1.1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G4.9 PTS · 2.6 REB · 0.4 AST
creation↓
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring↑
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS46.6%162/348
2-POINT60.6%103/170
3-POINT33.1%59/178
FREE THROW73.2%52/71
EFFECTIVE FG%55.0%
TRUE SHOOTING%57.4%
AST / TO1.51
PTS PER 369.61rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 61 | 14.16 | 3.74 | 3.08 | 0.77 | 0.51 | 0.54 | 0.44 |
| Away | 62 | 12.34 | 3.34 | 2.55 | 0.44 | 0.45 | 0.5 | 0.24 |
| Home − Away | — | +1.8 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.0 | +0.2 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | high |
| minutes | 5 | 13 | 20 | 13.24 | high |
| points | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3.54 | high |
| rebounds | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2.81 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES21.6% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | vs ORL | 33 | 15.66 | +110.7% | 9 | 2/9 | 1/3 | 1/6 | 4/4 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -14.0 | 42% |
| 2026-04-10 | vs NOP | 22 | 16.15 | +36.2% | 6 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +17.0 | 75% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ NYK | 17 | 17.76 | -4.3% | 5 | 2/4 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9.0 | 63% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs CHA | 18 | 18.3 | -1.6% | 9 | 4/4 | 3/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3.0 | 113% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs TOR | 13 | 16.39 | -20.7% | 4 | 2/4 | 2/2 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6.0 | 50% |
| 2026-04-01 | @ MIA | 5 | 16.06 | -68.9% | 0 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -7.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-30 | @ ATL | 31 | 10.91 | +184.2% | 8 | 2/5 | 1/1 | 1/4 | 3/4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 59% |
| 2026-03-29 | @ CHA | 34 | 5.33 | +537.4% | 3 | 1/7 | 1/3 | 0/4 | 1/1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +14.0 | 20% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs ATL | 27 | 0.6 | +4374.3% | 5 | 2/3 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +3.0 | 83% |
| 2026-03-12 | @ OKC | 13 | 7 | +85.8% | 8 | 3/4 | 1/1 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +12.0 | 100% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS3.1%2/65 games
10+ REBOUNDS3.1%2/65 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/65 games
2+ THREES12.3%8/65 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | BOS | 72 | 40.6 | #238 / 409 | 10.2M | Rotation |
| 2024–25 | BOS | 55 | 19.8 | #421 / 422 | 5.2M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER40.6descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#238of 409 ranked
PH$10.2MRotation
SAMPLE72observed games
Ball security64
Box defence51
Creation20
Efficiency55
Rebounding51
Scoring11
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+34.6 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+41.7 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-12.7 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY66-1.3 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
BOS
Boston Celtics
EXPECTED MIN14.5
SCORING SHARE4.2%
CREATION SHARE2.7%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR75.6%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.