Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Moussa Diabate
Charlotte Hornets current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER56.62025–26
NBA RANK#40of 409
PH$23.6MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN19.8governed role
NEXT GAME@ Brooklyn Nets2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-1.2 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN25.9
PTS7.8
REB8.7
AST1.9
STL0.8
BLK1.0
3PM0.0
FG%62.3%
3P%50.0%
FT%65.9%
+/-+4.5
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Charlotte Hornets
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL26minutes
EXPECTED26.82pregame reference
DEVIATION-3%role consistent
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G4.4 PTS · 5.8 REB · 2.8 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G6.8 PTS · 9.2 REB · 2.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G5.2 PTS · 7.3 REB · 2.1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G7.8 PTS · 9.3 REB · 2.1 AST
creation↑
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring↓
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS60.2%401/666
2-POINT60.6%399/658
3-POINT—2/8
FREE THROW63.3%197/311
EFFECTIVE FG%60.4%
TRUE SHOOTING%62.3%
AST / TO1.48
PTS PER 3611.07rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 90 | 19.29 | 5.68 | 6.56 | 1.1 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| Away | 80 | 19 | 6.12 | 6.38 | 1.24 | 0.03 | 0.65 | 0.76 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.3 | -0.4 | +0.2 | -0.1 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.16 | high |
| minutes | 9 | 19 | 29 | 19.15 | high |
| points | 2 | 5 | 10 | 5.89 | high |
| rebounds | 2 | 6 | 11 | 6.47 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES2514.7% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | @ NYK | 26 | 26.82 | -3% | 4 | 2/3 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2026-04-10 | vs DET | 25 | 26.82 | -6.8% | 8 | 3/4 | 3/4 | 0/0 | 2/4 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -7.0 | 69% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ BOS | 33 | 25.73 | +28.3% | 2 | 1/3 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -18.0 | 33% |
| 2026-04-05 | @ MIN | 24 | 26.33 | -8.8% | 8 | 3/4 | 3/4 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | +9.0 | 82% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs PHX | 25 | 26.54 | -5.8% | 4 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +10.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-31 | @ BKN | 27 | 27.47 | -1.7% | 10 | 4/6 | 4/6 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +25.0 | 73% |
| 2026-03-29 | vs BOS | 25 | 27.42 | -8.8% | 4 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -17.0 | 69% |
| 2026-03-28 | vs PHI | 25 | 28.41 | -12% | 10 | 4/7 | 4/7 | 0/0 | 2/3 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7.0 | 60% |
| 2026-03-26 | vs NYK | 30 | 27.26 | +10% | 2 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +15.0 | 35% |
| 2026-03-24 | vs SAC | 24 | 28.85 | -16.8% | 17 | 6/7 | 6/7 | 0/0 | 5/7 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +26.0 | 84% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/71 games
10+ REBOUNDS40.8%29/71 games
5+ ASSISTS8.5%6/71 games
2+ THREES0.0%0/71 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | CHA | 73 | 56.6 | #40 / 409 | 23.6M | Core |
| 2024–25 | CHA | 67 | 50.3 | #121 / 422 | 15.1M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER56.6descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#40of 409 ranked
PH$23.6MCore
SAMPLE73observed games
Ball security46
Box defence49
Creation31
Efficiency86
Rebounding91
Scoring13
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+53.9 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+18.9 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-6.2 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY68-1.2 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
CHA
Charlotte Hornets
EXPECTED MIN22.7
SCORING SHARE6.9%
CREATION SHARE7.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR79.6%
+1.36 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 33 normal-load / 5 nonparticipation games.