Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Shaedon Sharpe
Portland Trail Blazers current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER44.02025–26
NBA RANK#194of 409
PH$13.2MRotation · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN7.2governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Phoenix Suns2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.9 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN29.7
PTS21.2
REB4.4
AST2.6
STL1.4
BLK0.1
3PM2.1
FG%45.3%
3P%33.8%
FT%78.5%
+/--0.9
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Portland Trail Blazers
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL17minutes
EXPECTED3.03pregame reference
DEVIATION+460.3%expanded minutes
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G3.4 PTS · 1 REB · 1.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G21 PTS · 3 REB · 2.4 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G1.7 PTS · 0.5 REB · 0.6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G22.9 PTS · 4.8 REB · 2.8 AST
creation→
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring↓
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS45.0%1362/3024
2-POINT53.1%953/1796
3-POINT33.3%409/1228
FREE THROW78.1%507/649
EFFECTIVE FG%51.8%
TRUE SHOOTING%55.0%
AST / TO1.15
PTS PER 3620.24rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 114 | 27.43 | 15.48 | 3.88 | 2.16 | 1.81 | 0.83 | 0.29 |
| Away | 117 | 28.61 | 16.03 | 4.16 | 2.26 | 1.74 | 0.85 | 0.21 |
| Home − Away | — | -1.2 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.1 | +0.1 | -0.0 | +0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2.21 | high |
| minutes | 20 | 29 | 35 | 28.03 | low |
| points | 7 | 15 | 23 | 15.76 | high |
| rebounds | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4.02 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES41.7% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | vs SAC | 17 | 3.03 | +460.3% | 9 | 3/11 | 3/7 | 0/4 | 3/3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +5.0 | 37% |
| 2026-04-10 | vs LAC | 15 | — | — | 8 | 3/10 | 1/5 | 2/5 | 0/0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +4.0 | 40% |
| 2026-02-03 | vs PHX | 31 | 31.77 | -2.4% | 19 | 7/16 | 5/8 | 2/8 | 3/3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +7.0 | 55% |
| 2026-02-01 | vs CLE | 32 | 32.24 | -0.7% | 20 | 9/21 | 7/13 | 2/8 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -24.0 | 48% |
| 2026-01-30 | @ NYK | 28 | 33.23 | -15.7% | 26 | 10/16 | 6/8 | 4/8 | 2/4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -11.0 | 73% |
| 2026-01-27 | @ WAS | 35 | 32.42 | +8% | 31 | 11/20 | 6/11 | 5/9 | 4/4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -10.0 | 71% |
| 2026-01-26 | @ BOS | 34 | 31.99 | +6.3% | 9 | 3/12 | 2/6 | 1/6 | 2/2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -4.0 | 35% |
| 2026-01-23 | vs TOR | 32 | 31.34 | +2.1% | 21 | 10/23 | 9/17 | 1/6 | 0/0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -8.0 | 46% |
| 2026-01-22 | vs MIA | 34 | 31.34 | +8.5% | 27 | 11/21 | 6/12 | 5/9 | 0/0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +18.0 | 64% |
| 2026-01-18 | @ SAC | 34 | 31.2 | +9% | 27 | 8/19 | 5/10 | 3/9 | 8/11 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 57% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS61.2%30/49 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/49 games
5+ ASSISTS12.2%6/49 games
2+ THREES59.2%29/49 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | POR | 55 | 44.0 | #194 / 409 | 13.2M | Rotation |
| 2024–25 | POR | 71 | 41.7 | #239 / 422 | 12.8M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | POR | 31 | 37.4 | #297 / 409 | 7.7M | Depth |
| 2022–23 | POR | 80 | 35.3 | #311 / 408 | 8.3M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER44.0descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#194of 409 ranked
PH$13.2MRotation
SAMPLE55observed games
Ball security58
Box defence39
Creation23
Efficiency36
Rebounding26
Scoring90
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+42.1 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+9.2 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-20.9 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY49-0.9 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
POR
Portland Trail Blazers
EXPECTED MIN23.1
SCORING SHARE18.4%
CREATION SHARE10.8%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR72.6%
-1.30 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 35 normal-load / 4 nonparticipation games.