Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
John Collins
Detroit Pistons current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER49.52025–26
NBA RANK#114of 409
PH$18.3MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN21.3governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Boston Celtics2026-10-20WHAT IF IMPACT-0.6 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN27.1
PTS13.5
REB5.3
AST1.0
STL0.9
BLK0.7
3PM1.3
FG%55.4%
3P%41.7%
FT%77.1%
+/--0.5
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Detroit Pistons
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL21minutes
EXPECTED24.39pregame reference
DEVIATION-13.9%role consistent
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G11 PTS · 4.8 REB · 1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G15 PTS · 6.8 REB · 1.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G11.4 PTS · 5 REB · 1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G13.7 PTS · 7 REB · 1.1 AST
creation↑
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring↑
HOT historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS54.1%2510/4640
2-POINT61.0%2001/3278
3-POINT37.4%509/1362
FREE THROW80.7%964/1194
EFFECTIVE FG%59.6%
TRUE SHOOTING%62.8%
AST / TO0.92
PTS PER 3619.57rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 205 | 29.78 | 16.15 | 7.8 | 1.43 | 1.28 | 0.7 | 1.14 |
| Away | 199 | 29.33 | 15.99 | 7.15 | 1.27 | 1.24 | 0.68 | 0.87 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.5 | +0.2 | +0.7 | +0.2 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.3 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.35 | high |
| minutes | 25 | 30 | 34 | 29.56 | low |
| points | 10.6 | 16 | 21 | 16.07 | medium |
| rebounds | 4 | 7 | 11 | 7.48 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES10526.0% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | vs GSW | 21 | 24.39 | -13.9% | 18 | 8/12 | 8/10 | 0/2 | 2/2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -1.0 | 70% |
| 2026-04-10 | @ POR | 13 | 27.5 | -52.7% | 0 | 0/3 | 0/2 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -18.0 | 0% |
| 2026-04-08 | vs OKC | 27 | 26.42 | +2.2% | 12 | 5/11 | 4/8 | 1/3 | 1/3 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -16.0 | 49% |
| 2026-04-05 | @ SAC | 24 | 25.43 | -5.6% | 25 | 9/20 | 5/14 | 4/6 | 3/3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +15.0 | 59% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs SAS | 25 | 24.71 | +1.2% | 15 | 6/8 | 6/8 | 0/0 | 3/3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +6.0 | 81% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs POR | 31 | 23.32 | +33% | 17 | 7/8 | 4/5 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9.0 | 106% |
| 2026-03-29 | @ MIL | 35 | 21.02 | +66.5% | 22 | 9/13 | 9/11 | 0/2 | 4/5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -1.0 | 72% |
| 2026-03-27 | @ IND | 20 | 20.42 | -2.1% | 5 | 2/6 | 1/5 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7.0 | 42% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs TOR | 22 | 17.83 | +23.4% | 0 | 0/2 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +4.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ DAL | 29 | 13.46 | +115.5% | 8 | 3/7 | 2/2 | 1/5 | 1/2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | +5.0 | 51% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS11.9%8/67 games
10+ REBOUNDS6.0%4/67 games
5+ ASSISTS1.5%1/67 games
2+ THREES35.8%24/67 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | LAC | 67 | 27.1 | 13.5 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 55.4% | 41.7% | 77.1% |
| 2024–25 | UTA | 40 | 30.5 | 18.9 | 8.2 | 2.0 | 52.7% | 39.9% | 84.8% |
| 2023–24 | UTA | 68 | 27.9 | 15.1 | 8.5 | 1.1 | 53.2% | 37.1% | 79.5% |
| 2022–23 | ATL | 71 | 30.0 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 1.2 | 50.8% | 29.2% | 80.3% |
| 2021–22 | ATL | 54 | 30.8 | 16.2 | 7.8 | 1.8 | 52.7% | 36.4% | 79.3% |
| 2020–21 | ATL | 63 | 29.3 | 17.6 | 7.4 | 1.2 | 55.6% | 39.9% | 83.3% |
| 2019–20 | ATL | 41 | 33.3 | 21.6 | 10.2 | 1.5 | 58.4% | 40.1% | 80.0% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | LAC | 68 | 49.5 | #114 / 409 | 18.3M | Core |
| 2024–25 | UTA | 40 | 56.3 | #47 / 422 | 19.5M | Core |
| 2023–24 | UTA | 68 | 52.9 | #85 / 409 | 19.4M | Core |
| 2022–23 | ATL | 78 | 40.6 | #232 / 408 | 12.4M | Rotation |
| 2021–22 | ATL | 57 | 53.2 | #71 / 423 | 20.5M | Core |
| 2020–21 | ATL | 81 | 55.3 | #56 / 410 | 24.6M | Core |
| 2019–20 | ATL | 46 | 63.0 | #12 / 385 | 22.9M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER49.5descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#114of 409 ranked
PH$18.3MCore
SAMPLE68observed games
Ball security55
Box defence42
Creation8
Efficiency77
Rebounding42
Scoring49
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+29.9 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-16.8 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-5.8 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY66-0.6 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
LAC
LA Clippers
EXPECTED MIN23.3
SCORING SHARE12.3%
CREATION SHARE4.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR77.3%
+0.26 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 40 normal-load / 4 nonparticipation games.