CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

Daniel Gafford

Dallas Mavericks current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.

Dallas Mavericks · current teamF-CUSAArkansas

AF-PLAYER57.32025–26

NBA RANK#35of 409

PH$19.7MCore · fictional game currency

STATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status

EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role

NEXT GAME@ Houston Rockets2026-10-21 WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual

REGULAR-SEASON GAMES422

Player-safe accepted corpus.

CAREER PPG · CORPUS9.3

2019–20 through 2025–26 window.

CAREER RPG · CORPUS5.8

Historical window, not full NBA career.

CAREER APG · CORPUS1.1

Historical window, not full NBA career.

LATEST COMPLETED SEASON

2025–26

48 games

MIN21.6

PTS8.8

REB6.8

AST1.0

STL0.8

BLK1.3

3PM0.0

FG%64.2%

3P%—

FT%74.0%

+/--3.3

NEXT GAME

Current context

2026–27 · Dallas Mavericks

Assigned schedule

NBA Official roster

2026-10-21 · AWAY@ Houston Rockets28.1% winProjected 110–116

2026-10-23 · AWAY@ Indiana Pacers35.1% winProjected 113–116

2026-10-24 · HOMEvs San Antonio Spurs36.1% winProjected 115–112

2026-10-26 · AWAY@ Miami Heat33.2% winProjected 113–117

2026-10-28 · HOMEvs Oklahoma City Thunder33.8% winProjected 115–112

E66 · PLAYER PROJECTION

Loading next-game projection…

PTS / REB / AST / 3PM use a separately validated player-stat model. Game Win, projected team score, Form and milestones keep their own authorities.

Current team Open Player What If

MINUTES + FORM

Role-adjusted performance

CURRENT FORM · 2026–27

Waiting for completed player boxscores

PRESEASON / NO SAMPLE

ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.

LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26

Historical Minutes Intelligence

DESCRIPTIVE · NOT CURRENT

Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.

LATEST ACTUAL0minutes

EXPECTED12.15pregame reference

DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown

LAST 5

ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G7.8 PTS · 5.2 REB · 1.4 AST

LAST 10

ALL OBSERVED10 G0.7 PTS · 0.3 REB · 0.1 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G7.9 PTS · 6.6 REB · 1 AST

creation↑

efficiency↓

minutes→

rebounding↓

scoring→

MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.

SPLITS + EFFICIENCY

How the production is built

EFFICIENCY

Shooting, derived from the box score

CAREER · 422 GAMES

2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.

FIELD GOALS70.3%1611/2291

2-POINT70.3%1611/2290

3-POINT—0/1

FREE THROW68.0%680/1000

EFFECTIVE FG%70.3%

TRUE SHOOTING%71.4%

AST / TO1.07

PTS PER 3616.57rate, not projection

HOME / AWAY

Where the games were played

213 HOME · 209 AWAY

Split	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK
Home	213	19.78	9.2	5.6	1.01	0	0.5	1.53
Away	209	20.4	9.3	5.99	1.1	0	0.57	1.52
Home − Away	—	-0.6	-0.1	-0.4	-0.1	0.0	-0.1	+0.0

Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.

CONSISTENCY

What the average hides

422 GAMES

Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.

Category	Floor	Median	Ceiling	Mean	Volatility
assists	0	1	2	1.05	high
minutes	14	20.3	26	20.09	medium
points	4	9	14	9.25	high
rebounds	3	5	8	5.79	high

Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.

DOUBLE-DOUBLES

Observed frequency across the corpus

422 GAMES

DOUBLE-DOUBLES5212.3% of games

TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games

10+ ASSISTS00.0%

10+ BLOCKS00.0%

Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.

GAME LOG · 2025–26

One log, the window you choose

10 games

Date	Opp	MIN	EXP MIN	MIN Δ	PTS	FG	2P	3P	FT	OR	DR	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	+/-	TS%
2026-04-03	vs ORL	20	12.15	+64.6%	7	2/3	2/3	0/0	3/6	0	3	3	1	2	2	0	5	+3.0	62%
2026-03-21	vs LAC	25	14.82	+68.7%	7	3/8	3/8	0/0	1/2	6	7	13	1	0	0	1	2	0.0	39%
2026-03-18	vs ATL	22	14.78	+48.8%	24	9/10	9/10	0/0	6/7	4	4	8	0	0	1	1	1	+7.0	92%
2026-03-10	@ ATL	25	15.26	+63.8%	14	6/9	6/9	0/0	2/4	5	5	10	1	1	0	1	4	-22.0	65%
2026-03-08	@ TOR	23	14.81	+55.3%	21	10/10	10/10	0/0	1/1	6	5	11	3	0	1	1	0	-8.0	101%
2026-03-05	@ ORL	25	18.93	+32.1%	12	5/6	5/6	0/0	2/4	3	10	13	1	0	2	1	3	+6.0	77%
2026-03-03	@ CHA	22	18.8	+17%	10	5/8	5/8	0/0	0/0	3	3	6	2	2	1	1	1	-19.0	63%
2026-03-01	vs OKC	22	18.39	+19.6%	8	3/9	3/9	0/0	2/2	2	5	7	2	1	0	1	1	-9.0	41%
2026-02-24	@ BKN	17	22.51	-24.5%	9	3/5	3/5	0/0	3/3	2	2	4	1	1	1	0	5	-5.0	71%
2026-02-20	@ MIN	24	20.82	+15.3%	8	4/7	4/7	0/0	0/0	1	4	5	2	2	3	1	4	-6.0	57%

All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.

HISTORY

Season and milestone evidence

DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26

How often did the threshold occur?

historical frequency

These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.

20+ POINTS6.3%3/48 games

10+ REBOUNDS22.9%11/48 games

5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/48 games

2+ THREES0.0%0/48 games

SEASON HISTORY

Regular-season production

accepted player-safe games

Season	Team(s)	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
2025–26	DAL	48	21.6	8.8	6.8	1.0	64.2%	—	74.0%
2024–25	DAL	56	21.8	12.4	6.9	1.4	70.4%	—	68.9%
2023–24	WAS DAL	74	24.5	11.0	7.6	1.6	72.5%	—	67.4%
2022–23	WAS	78	20.6	9.0	5.6	1.1	73.2%	—	67.9%
2021–22	WAS	70	20.1	9.4	5.7	1.0	69.7%	0.0%	69.5%
2020–21	WAS CHI	54	14.7	7.0	4.3	0.5	68.8%	—	66.7%
2019–20	CHI	42	14.4	5.2	2.5	0.5	70.2%	—	53.3%

AF-PLAYER HISTORY

Season by season

Season	Team	G	AF-Player	Rank	PH$	Band
2025–26	DAL	48	57.3	#35 / 409	19.7M	Core
2024–25	DAL	58	64.0	#11 / 422	22.1M	Core
2023–24	DAL	96	62.1	#17 / 409	25.9M	High Value
2022–23	WAS	78	57.6	#37 / 408	21.5M	Core
2021–22	WAS	71	59.1	#26 / 423	22.4M	Core
2020–21	WAS	73	61.4	#22 / 410	19.9M	Core
2019–20	CHI	51	49.4	#99 / 385	13.9M	Rotation

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.

CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY

Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.

governed identity

Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.

Open team profile

IMPACT

Rating and role context

AF-PLAYER

Measured production, 2025–26

#35 OF 409

AF-PLAYER57.3descriptive index, not a win probability

NBA RANK#35of 409 ranked

PH$19.7MCore

SAMPLE48observed games

Ball security

Box defence

Creation

Efficiency

Rebounding

Scoring

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.

E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Distinct signals, side by side

descriptive · current role + historical rating

Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.

VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role

AF MOVEMENT-6.0 pp2024–25 → 2025–26

ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-21.6 min vs latest observed MPG

STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable

Player movement Opportunities Compare players

Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.

PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26

Pregame role and with/without context

descriptive · not causal

Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.

DAL

Dallas Mavericks

EXPECTED MIN16.1

SCORING SHARE7.7%

CREATION SHARE4.3%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR70.6%

With/without sample did not qualify for publication.