Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Brandon Williams
Dallas Mavericks current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER49.52025–26
NBA RANK#116of 409
PH$15.8MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN17.8governed role
NEXT GAME@ Houston Rockets2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-1.2 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN22.1
PTS13.1
REB2.8
AST3.8
STL0.9
BLK0.3
3PM0.6
FG%47.2%
3P%23.4%
FT%78.2%
+/--1.4
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Dallas Mavericks
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED13.24pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G14 PTS · 3.2 REB · 2.8 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G3.3 PTS · 0.3 REB · 1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G15.1 PTS · 3.6 REB · 3.3 AST
creation↓
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring↑
HOT historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS45.0%476/1057
2-POINT52.1%387/743
3-POINT28.3%89/314
FREE THROW76.3%328/430
EFFECTIVE FG%49.2%
TRUE SHOOTING%54.9%
AST / TO1.87
PTS PER 3620.07rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 65 | 18.76 | 9.95 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 0.66 | 0.74 | 0.23 |
| Away | 62 | 19.94 | 11.65 | 2.35 | 3.05 | 0.74 | 0.84 | 0.24 |
| Home − Away | — | -1.2 | -1.7 | +0.1 | +0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3.13 | high |
| minutes | 7.2 | 21 | 28 | 19.34 | high |
| points | 2 | 11 | 18 | 10.78 | high |
| rebounds | 0.2 | 2 | 4 | 2.38 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES32.4% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS43.1%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | vs ORL | 26 | 13.24 | +96.3% | 23 | 7/15 | 7/12 | 0/3 | 9/11 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -11.0 | 58% |
| 2026-03-27 | @ POR | 20 | 10.59 | +88.8% | 10 | 2/6 | 2/5 | 0/1 | 6/8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | +7.0 | 53% |
| 2026-03-13 | vs CLE | 21 | 17.42 | +20.6% | 12 | 3/8 | 1/5 | 2/3 | 4/5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -25.0 | 59% |
| 2026-03-10 | @ ATL | 18 | 18.73 | -3.9% | 13 | 3/4 | 3/4 | 0/0 | 7/8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +4.0 | 86% |
| 2026-03-08 | @ TOR | 19 | 19.27 | -1.4% | 16 | 4/8 | 3/4 | 1/4 | 7/8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -16.0 | 69% |
| 2026-03-06 | @ BOS | 19 | 18.34 | +3.6% | 11 | 3/8 | 1/3 | 2/5 | 3/4 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.0 | 56% |
| 2026-03-03 | @ CHA | 27 | 22.06 | +22.4% | 18 | 4/10 | 4/9 | 0/1 | 10/11 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -13.0 | 61% |
| 2026-03-01 | vs OKC | 24 | 21.32 | +12.6% | 14 | 5/12 | 5/10 | 0/2 | 4/4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -14.0 | 51% |
| 2026-02-26 | vs SAC | 27 | 20.65 | +30.7% | 16 | 6/10 | 5/8 | 1/2 | 3/7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +1.0 | 61% |
| 2026-02-24 | @ BKN | 29 | 16.59 | +74.8% | 19 | 9/11 | 8/9 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +11.0 | 86% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS14.0%8/57 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/57 games
5+ ASSISTS33.3%19/57 games
2+ THREES10.5%6/57 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | DAL | 57 | 49.5 | #116 / 409 | 15.8M | Core |
| 2024–25 | DAL | 32 | 61.3 | #26 / 422 | 17.5M | Core |
| 2021–22 | POR | 24 | 39.2 | #274 / 423 | 8M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER49.5descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#116of 409 ranked
PH$15.8MCore
SAMPLE57observed games
Ball security49
Box defence38
Creation62
Efficiency48
Rebounding18
Scoring71
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+39.9 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-22.3 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-4.3 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY71-1.2 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
DAL
Dallas Mavericks
EXPECTED MIN17.8
SCORING SHARE10.6%
CREATION SHARE14.3%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR75.7%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.