Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Trey Murphy III
New Orleans Pelicans current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER53.52025–26
NBA RANK#69of 409
PH$22.7MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Indiana Pacers2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN35.5
PTS21.5
REB5.7
AST3.7
STL1.5
BLK0.3
3PM3.2
FG%47.1%
3P%38.1%
FT%88.8%
+/--3.2
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · New Orleans Pelicans
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED14.99pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G2.6 PTS · 0.8 REB · 0.8 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G21.8 PTS · 4.6 REB · 4.4 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G4.8 PTS · 1.8 REB · 0.8 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G21.7 PTS · 4.5 REB · 4.1 AST
creation↑
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring↑
HOT historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS45.9%1619/3526
2-POINT57.0%818/1435
3-POINT38.3%801/2091
FREE THROW87.8%750/854
EFFECTIVE FG%57.3%
TRUE SHOOTING%61.4%
AST / TO2.1
PTS PER 3618.99rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 152 | 29.36 | 15.72 | 4.32 | 2.09 | 2.55 | 1.03 | 0.48 |
| Away | 161 | 28.66 | 14.91 | 4.19 | 2.35 | 2.57 | 0.98 | 0.41 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.7 | +0.8 | +0.1 | -0.3 | -0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2.22 | high |
| minutes | 21.1 | 32 | 37.6 | 29 | medium |
| points | 7 | 15 | 22 | 15.3 | high |
| rebounds | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4.25 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES82.6% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS10.3%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | @ SAC | 32 | 25.18 | +27.1% | 13 | 5/9 | 4/4 | 1/5 | 2/2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -3.0 | 66% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ POR | 36 | 23.53 | +53% | 19 | 7/17 | 6/11 | 1/6 | 4/4 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -17.0 | 51% |
| 2026-03-24 | @ NYK | 36 | 34.71 | +3.7% | 16 | 6/15 | 2/3 | 4/12 | 0/0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -13.0 | 53% |
| 2026-03-21 | vs CLE | 41 | 32.24 | +27.2% | 10 | 3/10 | 1/2 | 2/8 | 2/2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -6.0 | 46% |
| 2026-03-19 | vs LAC | 35 | 30.8 | +13.6% | 27 | 9/17 | 4/6 | 5/11 | 4/4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +4.0 | 72% |
| 2026-03-13 | @ HOU | 37 | 28.38 | +30.4% | 14 | 5/15 | 2/7 | 3/8 | 1/2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +7.0 | 44% |
| 2026-03-11 | vs TOR | 34 | 23.83 | +42.7% | 28 | 8/12 | 3/4 | 5/8 | 7/8 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +18.0 | 90% |
| 2026-03-06 | @ PHX | 41 | 18.11 | +126.4% | 22 | 6/17 | 2/8 | 4/9 | 6/7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +10.0 | 55% |
| 2026-03-05 | @ SAC | 32 | 14.32 | +123.4% | 21 | 7/14 | 3/8 | 4/6 | 3/4 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +13.0 | 67% |
| 2026-03-03 | @ LAL | 33 | 10.37 | +218.2% | 21 | 7/15 | 4/8 | 3/7 | 4/5 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -4.0 | 61% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS58.7%37/63 games
10+ REBOUNDS6.3%4/63 games
5+ ASSISTS33.3%21/63 games
2+ THREES79.4%50/63 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | NOP | 63 | 53.5 | #69 / 409 | 22.7M | Core |
| 2024–25 | NOP | 53 | 51.5 | #104 / 422 | 18.7M | Core |
| 2023–24 | NOP | 62 | 50.4 | #111 / 409 | 17.8M | Core |
| 2022–23 | NOP | 80 | 49.2 | #107 / 408 | 20.2M | Core |
| 2021–22 | NOP | 84 | 39.6 | #269 / 423 | 9M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER53.5descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#69of 409 ranked
PH$22.7MCore
SAMPLE63observed games
Ball security79
Box defence38
Creation42
Efficiency62
Rebounding26
Scoring70
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT+7.8 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-35.5 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
NOP
New Orleans Pelicans
EXPECTED MIN29.6
SCORING SHARE18.5%
CREATION SHARE15.3%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR76.8%
+4.79 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 33 normal-load / 8 nonparticipation games.