Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Moritz Wagner
Brooklyn Nets current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER43.42025–26
NBA RANK#202of 409
PH$9.1MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN30.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Charlotte Hornets2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN11.7
PTS6.8
REB3.2
AST0.8
STL0.4
BLK0.1
3PM0.6
FG%42.9%
3P%31.9%
FT%80.3%
+/--2.6
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Brooklyn Nets
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED4.62pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G1.2 PTS · 1 REB · 0.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G5 PTS · 3.2 REB · 0.4 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G1.9 PTS · 1.2 REB · 0.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G5.4 PTS · 3.4 REB · 0.7 AST
creation↓
efficiency↓
minutes↑
rebounding↑
scoring↓
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS52.6%1197/2276
2-POINT63.2%937/1482
3-POINT32.8%260/794
FREE THROW80.6%704/873
EFFECTIVE FG%58.3%
TRUE SHOOTING%63.1%
AST / TO1.12
PTS PER 3620.1rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 181 | 17.03 | 10 | 4.13 | 1.28 | 0.78 | 0.57 | 0.24 |
| Away | 174 | 16.85 | 8.9 | 4.11 | 1.22 | 0.68 | 0.5 | 0.32 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.2 | +1.1 | +0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.25 | high |
| minutes | 11.3 | 17 | 22.1 | 16.94 | medium |
| points | 4 | 9 | 14 | 9.46 | high |
| rebounds | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4.12 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES133.7% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | vs MIN | 7 | 5.68 | +23.2% | 4 | 2/6 | 2/4 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -10.0 | 33% |
| 2026-04-06 | vs DET | 4 | 6.16 | -35.1% | 2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2.0 | 100% |
| 2026-04-01 | vs ATL | 8 | 6.47 | +23.7% | 2 | 1/3 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8.0 | 29% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs PHX | 4 | 6.2 | -35.5% | 4 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-29 | @ TOR | 12 | 7.1 | +69% | 7 | 3/6 | 2/4 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7.0 | 58% |
| 2026-03-26 | vs SAC | 5 | 8.52 | -41.3% | 0 | 0/2 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-24 | @ CLE | 5 | 10.11 | -50.5% | 4 | 2/3 | 2/2 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4.0 | 67% |
| 2026-03-19 | @ CHA | 19 | 13 | +46.1% | 5 | 1/5 | 1/2 | 0/3 | 3/4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -14.0 | 37% |
| 2026-03-17 | vs OKC | 13 | 13.54 | -4% | 5 | 1/6 | 0/3 | 1/3 | 2/2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -28.0 | 36% |
| 2026-03-16 | @ ATL | 14 | 14.03 | -0.2% | 7 | 3/9 | 2/4 | 1/5 | 0/0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -3.0 | 39% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/35 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/35 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/35 games
2+ THREES14.3%5/35 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | ORL | 35 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 42.9% | 31.9% | 80.3% |
| 2024–25 | ORL | 30 | 18.8 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 56.2% | 36.0% | 71.8% |
| 2023–24 | ORL | 80 | 17.7 | 10.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 60.3% | 33.0% | 81.4% |
| 2022–23 | ORL | 57 | 19.5 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 50.0% | 31.3% | 84.1% |
| 2021–22 | ORL | 63 | 15.2 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 49.8% | 32.8% | 80.6% |
| 2020–21 | WASORLBOS | 45 | 16.0 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 45.4% | 34.1% | 81.6% |
| 2019–20 | WAS | 45 | 18.6 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 54.5% | 31.3% | 82.1% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | ORL | 38 | 43.4 | #202 / 409 | 9.1M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | ORL | 30 | 62.2 | #18 / 422 | 18.4M | Core |
| 2023–24 | ORL | 87 | 59.5 | #30 / 409 | 21.8M | Core |
| 2022–23 | ORL | 57 | 52.5 | #76 / 408 | 16.9M | Core |
| 2021–22 | ORL | 66 | 55.4 | #53 / 423 | 18.5M | Core |
| 2020–21 | ORL | 65 | 42.8 | #207 / 410 | 9.6M | Depth |
| 2019–20 | WAS | 46 | 50.5 | #91 / 385 | 15.1M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER43.4descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#202of 409 ranked
PH$9.1MDepth
SAMPLE38observed games
Ball security64
Box defence34
Creation24
Efficiency35
Rebounding57
Scoring64
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE-17.3 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-45.2 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+18.7 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
ORL
Orlando Magic
EXPECTED MIN9.1
SCORING SHARE5.8%
CREATION SHARE2.8%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR74.4%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.