CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

Ron Harper Jr.

Boston Celtics current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.

Boston Celtics · current teamG-F

AF-PLAYER42.32025–26

NBA RANK#213of 409

PH$8.5MDepth · fictional game currency

STATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status

EXPECTED MIN3.8governed role

NEXT GAME@ Detroit Pistons2026-10-20 WHAT IF IMPACT-1.4 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual

REGULAR-SEASON GAMES36

Player-safe accepted corpus.

CAREER PPG · CORPUS3.9

2019–20 through 2025–26 window.

CAREER RPG · CORPUS1.5

Historical window, not full NBA career.

CAREER APG · CORPUS0.7

Historical window, not full NBA career.

LATEST COMPLETED SEASON

2025–26

26 games

MIN11.7

PTS4.6

REB1.8

AST0.8

STL0.3

BLK0.3

3PM1.0

FG%42.1%

3P%34.6%

FT%75.0%

+/-+0.9

NEXT GAME

Current context

2026–27 · Boston Celtics

Assigned schedule

NBA Official roster

2026-10-20 · AWAY@ Detroit Pistons45.3% winProjected 111–113

2026-10-23 · HOMEvs New York Knicks50.8% winProjected 111–112

2026-10-26 · HOMEvs Chicago Bulls74.2% winProjected 111–116

2026-10-27 · HOMEvs Brooklyn Nets80.5% winProjected 108–115

2026-10-30 · HOMEvs Chicago Bulls74.2% winProjected 111–116

E66 · PLAYER PROJECTION

Loading next-game projection…

PTS / REB / AST / 3PM use a separately validated player-stat model. Game Win, projected team score, Form and milestones keep their own authorities.

Current team Open Player What If

MINUTES + FORM

Role-adjusted performance

CURRENT FORM · 2026–27

Waiting for completed player boxscores

PRESEASON / NO SAMPLE

ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.

LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26

Historical Minutes Intelligence

DESCRIPTIVE · NOT CURRENT

Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.

LATEST ACTUAL37minutes

EXPECTED2.89pregame reference

DEVIATION+1180.3%expanded minutes

LAST 5

ALL OBSERVED5 G6.8 PTS · 1.4 REB · 1 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT4 G3.5 PTS · 1.25 REB · 1 AST

LAST 10

ALL OBSERVED10 G4.1 PTS · 1 REB · 0.6 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT4 G3.5 PTS · 1.25 REB · 1 AST

creation—

efficiency—

minutes—

rebounding—

scoring—

Form label withheld: insufficient role-consistent sample. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.

SPLITS + EFFICIENCY

How the production is built

EFFICIENCY

Shooting, derived from the box score

CAREER · 36 GAMES

2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.

FIELD GOALS43.1%53/123

2-POINT63.9%23/36

3-POINT34.5%30/87

FREE THROW—4/5

EFFECTIVE FG%55.3%

TRUE SHOOTING%55.9%

AST / TO3.25

PTS PER 3614.08rate, not projection

HOME / AWAY

Where the games were played

18 HOME · 18 AWAY

Split	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK
Home	18	8.94	3.5	1.33	0.61	0.61	0.22	0.11
Away	18	10.94	4.28	1.67	0.83	1.06	0.28	0.44
Home − Away	—	-2.0	-0.8	-0.3	-0.2	-0.5	-0.1	-0.3

Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.

CONSISTENCY

What the average hides

36 GAMES

Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.

Category	Floor	Median	Ceiling	Mean	Volatility
assists	0	0	1	0.72	high
minutes	2	5.5	15	9.94	high
points	0	2	6	3.89	high
rebounds	0	1	3	1.5	high

Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.

DOUBLE-DOUBLES

Observed frequency across the corpus

36 GAMES

DOUBLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games

TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games

10+ ASSISTS00.0%

10+ BLOCKS00.0%

Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.

GAME LOG · 2025–26

One log, the window you choose

10 games

Date	Opp	MIN	EXP MIN	MIN Δ	PTS	FG	2P	3P	FT	OR	DR	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	+/-	TS%
2026-04-12	vs ORL	37	2.89	+1180.3%	27	10/20	5/8	5/12	2/2	1	6	7	4	3	0	3	0	+7.0	65%
2026-04-10	vs NOP	12	0.94	+1172.7%	7	3/7	2/3	1/4	0/0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	-8.0	50%
2026-04-05	vs TOR	1	2.85	-64.9%	0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2.0	—
2026-03-29	@ CHA	14	3.45	+305.7%	7	3/3	2/2	1/1	0/0	0	3	3	1	1	1	0	2	+10.0	117%
2026-03-22	vs MIN	2	5.68	-64.8%	0	0/1	0/1	0/0	0/0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	+6.0	0%
2026-03-18	vs GSW	7	9.02	-22.4%	0	0/2	0/1	0/1	0/0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	-8.0	0%
2026-03-14	vs WAS	2	10.97	-81.8%	0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0/0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	-5.0	—
2026-03-12	@ OKC	12	11.1	+8.1%	5	2/4	1/1	1/3	0/0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	2	+15.0	63%
2026-03-10	@ SAS	33	6.47	+410.3%	22	8/11	2/2	6/9	0/0	0	3	3	2	0	0	0	0	-12.0	100%
2026-03-06	vs DAL	4	12.16	-67.1%	0	0/2	0/0	0/2	0/0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	-4.0	0%

All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.

HISTORY

Season and milestone evidence

DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26

How often did the threshold occur?

historical frequency

These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.

20+ POINTS7.7%2/26 games

10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/26 games

5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/26 games

2+ THREES26.9%7/26 games

SEASON HISTORY

Regular-season production

accepted player-safe games

Season	Team(s)	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
2025–26	BOS	26	11.7	4.6	1.8	0.8	42.1%	34.6%	75.0%
2023–24	TOR	1	4.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	—	—	—
2022–23	TOR	9	5.4	2.2	0.8	0.4	50.0%	33.3%	100.0%

CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY

Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.

governed identity

Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.

Open team profile

IMPACT

Rating and role context

AF-PLAYER

Measured production, 2025–26

#213 OF 409

AF-PLAYER42.3descriptive index, not a win probability

NBA RANK#213of 409 ranked

PH$8.5MDepth

SAMPLE33observed games

Ball security

Box defence

Creation

Efficiency

Rebounding

Scoring

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.

E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Distinct signals, side by side

descriptive · current role + historical rating

Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.

VALUE OVER ROLE+41.8 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct

AF MOVEMENT—two eligible completed seasons required

ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-6.2 min vs latest observed MPG

STAR DEPENDENCY74-1.4 pp next-game What If impact

Player movement Opportunities Compare players

Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.

PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26

Pregame role and with/without context

descriptive · not causal

Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.

BOS

Boston Celtics

EXPECTED MIN4.8

SCORING SHARE2.8%

CREATION SHARE3.2%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR44.8%

With/without sample did not qualify for publication.