Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Zion Williamson
New Orleans Pelicans current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER62.62025–26
NBA RANK#10of 409
PH$25.3MHigh Value · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Indiana Pacers2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN29.8
PTS21.0
REB5.8
AST3.3
STL1.0
BLK0.6
3PM0.0
FG%59.2%
3P%25.0%
FT%72.1%
+/--1.6
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · New Orleans Pelicans
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED22.5pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G6 PTS · 2.6 REB · 1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G17 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G10.7 PTS · 2.9 REB · 1.7 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G19 PTS · 5.3 REB · 3.2 AST
creation↓
efficiency→
minutes↓
rebounding↓
scoring↓
COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS58.9%2474/4199
2-POINT59.6%2441/4098
3-POINT32.7%33/101
FREE THROW69.5%1469/2113
EFFECTIVE FG%59.3%
TRUE SHOOTING%62.9%
AST / TO1.53
PTS PER 3627.65rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 133 | 31.06 | 24.28 | 6.38 | 4.21 | 0.15 | 1.02 | 0.65 |
| Away | 137 | 31.14 | 23.51 | 6.53 | 4 | 0.09 | 1.01 | 0.61 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.1 | +0.8 | -0.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4.1 | high |
| minutes | 28 | 31.7 | 35 | 31.1 | low |
| points | 18 | 24 | 30 | 23.89 | medium |
| rebounds | 4 | 6 | 9 | 6.45 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES4717.4% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES20.7% of games
10+ ASSISTS72.6%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | vs ORL | 28 | 29.89 | -6.3% | 17 | 5/11 | 5/11 | 0/0 | 7/9 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1.0 | 57% |
| 2026-04-03 | @ SAC | 29 | 30.34 | -4.4% | 13 | 5/11 | 5/11 | 0/0 | 3/4 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -4.0 | 51% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ POR | 29 | 31.23 | -7.2% | 15 | 4/7 | 4/7 | 0/0 | 7/8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -11.0 | 71% |
| 2026-03-29 | vs HOU | 25 | 31.45 | -20.5% | 18 | 6/8 | 6/8 | 0/0 | 6/8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -11.0 | 78% |
| 2026-03-27 | @ TOR | 31 | 31.12 | -0.4% | 22 | 9/13 | 9/13 | 0/0 | 4/4 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -7.0 | 75% |
| 2026-03-24 | @ NYK | 34 | 31.12 | +9.3% | 22 | 8/10 | 8/10 | 0/0 | 6/8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +15.0 | 81% |
| 2026-03-21 | vs CLE | 32 | 30.81 | +3.9% | 25 | 10/14 | 10/14 | 0/0 | 5/9 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9.0 | 70% |
| 2026-03-19 | vs LAC | 33 | 30.76 | +7.3% | 15 | 5/7 | 5/7 | 0/0 | 5/7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +12.0 | 74% |
| 2026-03-13 | @ HOU | 34 | 25.91 | +31.2% | 21 | 7/10 | 7/10 | 0/0 | 7/9 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -3.0 | 75% |
| 2026-03-11 | vs TOR | 32 | 23.31 | +37.3% | 19 | 7/12 | 7/12 | 0/0 | 5/8 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +20.0 | 61% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS65.5%38/58 games
10+ REBOUNDS10.3%6/58 games
5+ ASSISTS22.4%13/58 games
2+ THREES0.0%0/58 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | NOP | 58 | 62.6 | #10 / 409 | 25.3M | High Value |
| 2024–25 | NOP | 30 | 66.1 | #6 / 422 | 20.8M | Core |
| 2023–24 | NOP | 70 | 64.0 | #11 / 409 | 26.2M | High Value |
| 2022–23 | NOP | 29 | 63.7 | #11 / 408 | 20.3M | Core |
| 2020–21 | NOP | 60 | 68.3 | #3 / 410 | 27.3M | High Value |
| 2019–20 | NOP | 24 | 58.8 | #29 / 385 | 18.2M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER62.6descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#10of 409 ranked
PH$25.3MHigh Value
SAMPLE58observed games
Ball security64
Box defence36
Creation39
Efficiency79
Rebounding45
Scoring87
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT-1.0 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-29.8 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
NOP
New Orleans Pelicans
EXPECTED MIN22.8
SCORING SHARE18.9%
CREATION SHARE15.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR69.6%
+3.64 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 37 normal-load / 3 nonparticipation games.