Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Keldon Johnson
San Antonio Spurs current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER46.42025–26
NBA RANK#156of 409
PH$17.1MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN17.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Oklahoma City Thunder2026-10-20WHAT IF IMPACT+0.1 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN23.3
PTS13.1
REB5.3
AST1.3
STL0.6
BLK0.1
3PM1.2
FG%51.9%
3P%35.9%
FT%79.3%
+/-+3.6
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · San Antonio Spurs
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL22minutes
EXPECTED24.02pregame reference
DEVIATION-8.4%role consistent
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G12.2 PTS · 5 REB · 0.6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G15 PTS · 6.4 REB · 1 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G13.1 PTS · 4.3 REB · 1.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G16.6 PTS · 5.1 REB · 1.9 AST
creation↓
efficiency↓
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS47.5%2523/5315
2-POINT54.4%1850/3403
3-POINT35.2%673/1912
FREE THROW76.6%1072/1399
EFFECTIVE FG%53.8%
TRUE SHOOTING%57.3%
AST / TO1.6
PTS PER 3619.67rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 222 | 28.16 | 16.05 | 5.65 | 2.09 | 1.71 | 0.65 | 0.23 |
| Away | 227 | 27.22 | 14.22 | 5.11 | 1.92 | 1.29 | 0.67 | 0.22 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.9 | +1.8 | +0.5 | +0.2 | +0.4 | -0.0 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2.01 | high |
| minutes | 22 | 28 | 33.4 | 27.68 | low |
| points | 9 | 14 | 21.4 | 15.12 | medium |
| rebounds | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5.38 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES378.2% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | vs DEN | 22 | 24.02 | -8.4% | 18 | 6/12 | 4/7 | 2/5 | 4/6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +10.0 | 62% |
| 2026-04-08 | vs POR | 29 | 23.32 | +24.3% | 20 | 8/15 | 8/12 | 0/3 | 4/5 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +13.0 | 58% |
| 2026-04-06 | vs PHI | 25 | 22.92 | +9.1% | 13 | 4/14 | 3/9 | 1/5 | 4/6 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +5.0 | 39% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ DEN | 17 | 24.08 | -29.4% | 10 | 3/10 | 3/4 | 0/6 | 4/4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3.0 | 43% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ LAC | 27 | 23.48 | +15% | 13 | 6/11 | 5/9 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +18.0 | 59% |
| 2026-04-01 | @ GSW | 26 | 23.21 | +12% | 11 | 3/11 | 1/5 | 2/6 | 3/4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +7.0 | 43% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs CHI | 26 | 22.4 | +16.1% | 15 | 5/11 | 3/6 | 2/5 | 3/4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +11.0 | 59% |
| 2026-03-28 | @ MIL | 23 | 22.08 | +4.2% | 16 | 6/8 | 4/6 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +26.0 | 90% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ MEM | 22 | 22.07 | -0.3% | 15 | 7/16 | 6/10 | 1/6 | 0/0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +9.0 | 47% |
| 2026-03-23 | @ MIA | 24 | 21.6 | +11.1% | 21 | 7/14 | 4/8 | 3/6 | 4/4 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +12.0 | 67% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS16.3%13/80 games
10+ REBOUNDS7.5%6/80 games
5+ ASSISTS3.8%3/80 games
2+ THREES35.0%28/80 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | SAS | 80 | 23.3 | 13.1 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 51.9% | 35.9% | 79.3% |
| 2024–25 | SAS | 76 | 23.8 | 12.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 48.0% | 31.4% | 77.3% |
| 2023–24 | SAS | 69 | 29.6 | 15.7 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 45.4% | 34.6% | 79.2% |
| 2022–23 | SAS | 63 | 32.8 | 22.0 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 45.2% | 32.9% | 74.9% |
| 2021–22 | SAS | 75 | 31.9 | 17.0 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 46.6% | 39.9% | 75.6% |
| 2020–21 | SAS | 69 | 28.5 | 12.8 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 47.9% | 33.1% | 74.0% |
| 2019–20 | SAS | 17 | 17.7 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 59.6% | 59.1% | 79.5% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | SAS | 103 | 46.4 | #156 / 409 | 17.1M | Core |
| 2024–25 | SAS | 76 | 45.7 | #181 / 422 | 14.2M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | SAS | 69 | 45.7 | #162 / 409 | 15.4M | Core |
| 2022–23 | SAS | 63 | 44.9 | #177 / 408 | 14.3M | Rotation |
| 2021–22 | SAS | 76 | 46.1 | #160 / 423 | 17.3M | Core |
| 2020–21 | SAS | 70 | 41.6 | #233 / 410 | 12.6M | Rotation |
| 2019–20 | SAS | 32 | 55.3 | #52 / 385 | 15.1M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER46.4descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#156of 409 ranked
PH$17.1MCore
SAMPLE103observed games
Ball security79
Box defence20
Creation16
Efficiency55
Rebounding51
Scoring58
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+31.6 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+4.8 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-5.0 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY38+0.1 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
SAS
San Antonio Spurs
EXPECTED MIN21.9
SCORING SHARE10.2%
CREATION SHARE4.6%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR87.6%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.