Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Jalen Smith
Chicago Bulls current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER52.52025–26
NBA RANK#80of 409
PH$17MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAME@ Toronto Raptors2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN20.6
PTS10.2
REB6.8
AST1.3
STL0.5
BLK0.8
3PM1.6
FG%48.6%
3P%37.4%
FT%73.3%
+/-+1.2
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Chicago Bulls
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED9.84pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G14 PTS · 6.6 REB · 1 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G10.7 PTS · 7 REB · 1.3 AST
creation↓
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS50.2%1046/2083
2-POINT62.5%737/1179
3-POINT34.2%309/904
FREE THROW75.1%396/527
EFFECTIVE FG%57.6%
TRUE SHOOTING%60.4%
AST / TO1.12
PTS PER 3618.62rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 167 | 16.5 | 8.75 | 5.45 | 0.81 | 1.01 | 0.32 | 0.72 |
| Away | 154 | 17.23 | 8.68 | 5.56 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.27 | 0.71 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.7 | +0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.89 | high |
| minutes | 11 | 17 | 24 | 16.85 | medium |
| points | 3 | 9 | 14 | 8.71 | high |
| rebounds | 2 | 5 | 8 | 5.5 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES3410.6% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | @ PHI | 6 | 14.36 | -58.2% | 0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -5.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-23 | vs HOU | 26 | 14.34 | +81.3% | 15 | 6/8 | 3/3 | 3/5 | 0/0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | +17.0 | 94% |
| 2026-03-18 | vs TOR | 17 | 14.84 | +14.5% | 10 | 3/4 | 1/1 | 2/3 | 2/2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9.0 | 102% |
| 2026-03-12 | @ LAL | 30 | 11.57 | +159.2% | 14 | 5/11 | 3/6 | 2/5 | 2/2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -18.0 | 59% |
| 2026-03-10 | @ GSW | 34 | 6.32 | +438.2% | 12 | 3/13 | 1/3 | 2/10 | 4/4 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1.0 | 41% |
| 2026-03-08 | @ SAC | 20 | 2.57 | +677.5% | 4 | 1/6 | 0/1 | 1/5 | 1/4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6.0 | 26% |
| 2026-02-22 | vs NYK | 18 | 9.93 | +81.3% | 12 | 5/11 | 3/5 | 2/6 | 0/0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -9.0 | 55% |
| 2026-02-21 | vs DET | 25 | 9.47 | +163.9% | 15 | 5/6 | 2/2 | 3/4 | 2/3 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3.0 | 102% |
| 2026-02-19 | vs TOR | 24 | 7.14 | +236% | 9 | 2/6 | 1/3 | 1/3 | 4/4 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -8.0 | 58% |
| 2026-02-05 | @ TOR | 24 | — | — | 13 | 6/11 | 6/8 | 0/3 | 1/2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6.0 | 55% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/51 games
10+ REBOUNDS23.5%12/51 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/51 games
2+ THREES52.9%27/51 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | CHI | 51 | 52.5 | #80 / 409 | 17M | Core |
| 2024–25 | CHI | 64 | 55.7 | #52 / 422 | 18.3M | Core |
| 2023–24 | IND | 68 | 62.8 | #13 / 409 | 21.5M | Core |
| 2022–23 | IND | 68 | 46.2 | #154 / 408 | 13.4M | Rotation |
| 2021–22 | IND | 74 | 52.8 | #76 / 423 | 16.9M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER52.5descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#80of 409 ranked
PH$17MCore
SAMPLE51observed games
Ball security58
Box defence46
Creation20
Efficiency63
Rebounding76
Scoring50
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT-7.3 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-20.6 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
CHI
Chicago Bulls
EXPECTED MIN14.7
SCORING SHARE9.0%
CREATION SHARE4.3%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR67.8%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.