Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Stephon Castle
San Antonio Spurs current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER51.42025–26
NBA RANK#91of 409
PH$22.2MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN34.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Oklahoma City Thunder2026-10-20WHAT IF IMPACT-0.8 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN29.9
PTS16.6
REB5.3
AST7.4
STL1.1
BLK0.3
3PM1.2
FG%47.3%
3P%33.2%
FT%73.2%
+/-+5.9
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · San Antonio Spurs
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL29minutes
EXPECTED26.12pregame reference
DEVIATION+11%role consistent
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G9.8 PTS · 5.2 REB · 6.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G18.2 PTS · 7.8 REB · 8.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G14.2 PTS · 5.8 REB · 7.6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G19.2 PTS · 7.3 REB · 8.2 AST
creation↑
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring↑
HOT historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS44.8%795/1773
2-POINT51.6%620/1202
3-POINT30.6%175/571
FREE THROW72.6%520/716
EFFECTIVE FG%49.8%
TRUE SHOOTING%54.7%
AST / TO2.09
PTS PER 3619.91rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 72 | 28.92 | 15.76 | 4.49 | 5.92 | 1.19 | 1.07 | 0.29 |
| Away | 75 | 27.32 | 15.33 | 4.29 | 5.15 | 1.19 | 0.93 | 0.25 |
| Home − Away | — | +1.6 | +0.4 | +0.2 | +0.8 | 0.0 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5.52 | high |
| minutes | 23 | 29 | 34 | 28.1 | low |
| points | 9.2 | 16 | 21.8 | 15.54 | medium |
| rebounds | 2 | 4 | 7 | 4.39 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES2315.7% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES53.4% of games
10+ ASSISTS1912.9%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | vs DEN | 29 | 26.12 | +11% | 10 | 3/10 | 1/7 | 2/3 | 2/4 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -11.0 | 43% |
| 2026-04-06 | vs PHI | 31 | 29.86 | +3.8% | 19 | 6/13 | 5/11 | 1/2 | 6/6 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +9.0 | 61% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ DEN | 40 | 28.42 | +40.7% | 20 | 9/17 | 9/13 | 0/4 | 2/2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -10.0 | 56% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ LAC | 33 | 27.02 | +22.1% | 20 | 8/15 | 5/10 | 3/5 | 1/1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | +5.0 | 65% |
| 2026-04-01 | @ GSW | 33 | 22.99 | +43.6% | 15 | 4/9 | 2/5 | 2/4 | 5/7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +6.0 | 62% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs CHI | 35 | 18.6 | +88.2% | 21 | 6/12 | 3/6 | 3/6 | 6/10 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +24.0 | 64% |
| 2026-03-28 | @ MIL | 29 | 17.57 | +65.1% | 22 | 9/13 | 7/9 | 2/4 | 2/3 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +19.0 | 77% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ MEM | 26 | 19.11 | +36.1% | 15 | 5/7 | 5/5 | 0/2 | 5/9 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +34.0 | 68% |
| 2026-03-23 | @ MIA | 23 | 20.28 | +13.4% | 19 | 4/9 | 2/5 | 2/4 | 9/10 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +20.0 | 71% |
| 2026-03-17 | @ SAC | 22 | 31.01 | -29.1% | 3 | 1/7 | 0/6 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +11.0 | 21% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS28.4%19/67 games
10+ REBOUNDS10.4%7/67 games
5+ ASSISTS83.6%56/67 games
2+ THREES32.8%22/67 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | SAS | 90 | 51.4 | #91 / 409 | 22.2M | Core |
| 2024–25 | SAS | 80 | 41.9 | #236 / 422 | 12.7M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER51.4descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#91of 409 ranked
PH$22.2MCore
SAMPLE90observed games
Ball security17
Box defence30
Creation79
Efficiency51
Rebounding33
Scoring65
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+3.1 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+33.8 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+3.2 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY75-0.8 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
SAS
San Antonio Spurs
EXPECTED MIN26.4
SCORING SHARE14.4%
CREATION SHARE26.5%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR77.8%
+1.49 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 66 normal-load / 5 nonparticipation games.