CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

Jimmy Butler

Golden State Warriors current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.

Golden State Warriors · current teamFUSAMarquette

AF-PLAYER65.52025–26

NBA RANK#7of 409

PH$22.3MCore · fictional game currency

STATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status

EXPECTED MIN34.5governed role

NEXT GAME@ Los Angeles Lakers2026-10-21 WHAT IF IMPACT-0.2 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual

REGULAR-SEASON GAMES382

Player-safe accepted corpus.

CAREER PPG · CORPUS20.7

2019–20 through 2025–26 window.

CAREER RPG · CORPUS6.0

Historical window, not full NBA career.

CAREER APG · CORPUS5.6

Historical window, not full NBA career.

LATEST COMPLETED SEASON

2025–26

38 games

MIN31.2

PTS20.0

REB5.5

AST4.9

STL1.4

BLK0.2

3PM0.8

FG%51.9%

3P%37.6%

FT%86.4%

+/-+4.9

NEXT GAME

Current context

2026–27 · Golden State Warriors

Assigned schedule

NBA Official roster

2026-10-21 · AWAY@ Los Angeles Lakers34.7% winProjected 112–115

2026-10-23 · HOMEvs Memphis Grizzlies62.5% winProjected 113–116

2026-10-24 · AWAY@ Phoenix Suns38.4% winProjected 112–115

2026-10-26 · AWAY@ Denver Nuggets36.9% winProjected 113–117

2026-10-28 · AWAY@ Minnesota Timberwolves40.0% winProjected 112–115

E66 · PLAYER PROJECTION

Loading next-game projection…

PTS / REB / AST / 3PM use a separately validated player-stat model. Game Win, projected team score, Form and milestones keep their own authorities.

Current team Open Player What If

MINUTES + FORM

Role-adjusted performance

CURRENT FORM · 2026–27

Waiting for completed player boxscores

PRESEASON / NO SAMPLE

ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.

LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26

Historical Minutes Intelligence

DESCRIPTIVE · NOT CURRENT

Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.

LATEST ACTUAL0minutes

EXPECTED0.82pregame reference

DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown

LAST 5

ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G20.2 PTS · 5.6 REB · 4.4 AST

LAST 10

ALL OBSERVED10 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST

ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G19.4 PTS · 5.6 REB · 5.1 AST

creation→

efficiency→

minutes↓

rebounding↑

scoring↑

MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.

SPLITS + EFFICIENCY

How the production is built

EFFICIENCY

Shooting, derived from the box score

CAREER · 382 GAMES

2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.

FIELD GOALS50.0%2519/5043

2-POINT53.3%2278/4273

3-POINT31.3%241/770

FREE THROW85.3%2623/3074

EFFECTIVE FG%52.3%

TRUE SHOOTING%61.8%

AST / TO3.09

PTS PER 3622.43rate, not projection

HOME / AWAY

Where the games were played

200 HOME · 182 AWAY

Split	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK
Home	200	33.02	21.02	6.16	5.76	0.66	1.54	0.39
Away	182	33.4	20.32	5.72	5.41	0.6	1.77	0.34
Home − Away	—	-0.4	+0.7	+0.4	+0.3	+0.1	-0.2	+0.1

Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.

CONSISTENCY

What the average hides

382 GAMES

Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.

Category	Floor	Median	Ceiling	Mean	Volatility
assists	3	5	8	5.6	medium
minutes	29.3	34	37	33.2	low
points	15	20	27	20.69	medium
rebounds	3	5	8	5.95	medium

Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.

DOUBLE-DOUBLES

Observed frequency across the corpus

382 GAMES

DOUBLE-DOUBLES6416.8% of games

TRIPLE-DOUBLES153.9% of games

10+ ASSISTS348.9%

10+ BLOCKS00.0%

Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.

GAME LOG · 2025–26

One log, the window you choose

10 games

Date	Opp	MIN	EXP MIN	MIN Δ	PTS	FG	2P	3P	FT	OR	DR	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	+/-	TS%
2026-01-19	vs MIA	21	23.69	-11.4%	17	6/11	6/10	0/1	5/5	2	1	3	4	2	0	2	0	+9.0	64%
2026-01-15	vs NYK	32	28.93	+10.6%	32	14/22	13/19	1/3	3/5	7	1	8	4	2	0	0	1	+15.0	66%
2026-01-13	vs POR	26	30.11	-13.7%	16	5/7	4/5	1/2	5/5	0	6	6	5	0	0	0	3	+17.0	87%
2026-01-11	vs ATL	34	25.74	+32.1%	30	10/19	8/13	2/6	8/8	2	5	7	6	2	0	2	0	-5.0	67%
2026-01-09	vs SAC	23	27.14	-15.2%	15	6/10	6/9	0/1	3/3	4	2	6	6	0	0	2	0	+20.0	66%
2026-01-07	vs MIL	32	27.04	+18.3%	21	6/15	5/10	1/5	8/9	2	3	5	3	1	0	2	3	-4.0	55%
2026-01-05	@ LAC	33	27.41	+20.4%	24	7/16	6/12	1/4	9/11	5	1	6	2	4	1	2	0	+3.0	58%
2026-01-03	vs UTA	34	27.26	+24.7%	15	4/9	3/7	1/2	6/8	1	2	3	7	3	0	2	0	+9.0	60%
2025-12-31	@ CHA	31	31.27	-0.9%	19	4/8	4/7	0/1	11/12	1	4	5	7	1	0	3	1	+8.0	72%
2025-12-29	@ BKN	31	30.66	+1.1%	21	5/9	5/9	0/0	11/12	3	2	5	4	1	0	1	1	+7.0	74%

All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.

HISTORY

Season and milestone evidence

DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26

How often did the threshold occur?

historical frequency

These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.

20+ POINTS55.3%21/38 games

10+ REBOUNDS2.6%1/38 games

5+ ASSISTS52.6%20/38 games

2+ THREES21.1%8/38 games

SEASON HISTORY

Regular-season production

accepted player-safe games

Season	Team(s)	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
2025–26	GSW	38	31.2	20.0	5.5	4.9	51.9%	37.6%	86.4%
2024–25	MIA GSW	54	31.8	17.5	5.4	5.4	50.3%	31.4%	83.9%
2023–24	MIA	60	34.0	20.8	5.3	5.0	49.9%	41.4%	85.8%
2022–23	MIA	64	33.4	22.9	5.8	5.3	53.9%	34.9%	85.0%
2021–22	MIA	56	33.9	21.6	5.9	5.4	48.5%	23.7%	87.1%
2020–21	MIA	52	33.5	21.5	6.9	7.1	49.7%	24.5%	86.3%
2019–20	MIA	58	33.8	19.9	6.6	6.0	45.5%	24.4%	83.4%

AF-PLAYER HISTORY

Season by season

Season	Team	G	AF-Player	Rank	PH$	Band
2025–26	GSW	38	65.5	#7 / 409	22.3M	Core
2024–25	GSW	66	63.3	#14 / 422	26.3M	High Value
2023–24	MIA	61	61.0	#22 / 409	24.9M	Core
2022–23	MIA	88	67.6	#3 / 408	29.6M	High Value
2021–22	MIA	72	64.6	#10 / 423	27.9M	High Value
2020–21	MIA	60	66.0	#7 / 410	26.4M	High Value
2019–20	MIA	82	61.0	#16 / 385	28.3M	High Value

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.

CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY

Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.

governed identity

Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.

Open team profile

IMPACT

Rating and role context

AF-PLAYER

Measured production, 2025–26

#7 OF 409

AF-PLAYER65.5descriptive index, not a win probability

NBA RANK#7of 409 ranked

PH$22.3MCore

SAMPLE38observed games

Ball security

Box defence

Creation

Efficiency

Rebounding

Scoring

PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.

E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE

Distinct signals, side by side

descriptive · current role + historical rating

Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.

VALUE OVER ROLE+21.5 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct

AF MOVEMENT+1.6 pp2024–25 → 2025–26

ROLE CHANGEEXPANDING+3.3 min vs latest observed MPG

STAR DEPENDENCY54-0.2 pp next-game What If impact

UNDERUSED

Player movement Opportunities Compare players

Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.

PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26

Pregame role and with/without context

descriptive · not causal

Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.

GSW

Golden State Warriors

EXPECTED MIN23.7

SCORING SHARE17.4%

CREATION SHARE16.6%

PARTICIPATION PRIOR71.6%

+4.52 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 21 normal-load / 5 nonparticipation games.