Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Sam Merrill
Cleveland Cavaliers current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER47.82025–26
NBA RANK#136of 409
PH$16.4MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN20.9governed role
NEXT GAME@ Philadelphia 76ers2026-10-22WHAT IF IMPACT+0.1 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN26.6
PTS12.7
REB2.6
AST2.4
STL0.6
BLK0.1
3PM3.1
FG%46.2%
3P%42.7%
FT%85.7%
+/-+4.2
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Cleveland Cavaliers
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED18.93pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G1.2 PTS · 0 REB · 0.6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G10.8 PTS · 2.6 REB · 3.6 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G3.7 PTS · 0.7 REB · 1.6 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G8.3 PTS · 2.6 REB · 3.2 AST
creation↑
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding→
scoring↓
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS42.5%576/1356
2-POINT54.8%119/217
3-POINT40.1%457/1139
FREE THROW89.1%114/128
EFFECTIVE FG%59.3%
TRUE SHOOTING%61.0%
AST / TO3.35
PTS PER 3615.44rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 112 | 18.27 | 7.84 | 2.08 | 1.71 | 2.07 | 0.54 | 0.11 |
| Away | 105 | 18.76 | 8.05 | 1.94 | 1.55 | 2.14 | 0.44 | 0.13 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.5 | -0.2 | +0.1 | +0.2 | -0.1 | +0.1 | -0.0 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1.64 | high |
| minutes | 8.8 | 20 | 27 | 18.51 | medium |
| points | 2 | 6 | 13 | 7.94 | high |
| rebounds | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2.01 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES10.5% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | vs ATL | 27 | 23.56 | +14.6% | 6 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.0 | 100% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ GSW | 28 | 23.48 | +19.3% | 3 | 1/6 | 0/0 | 1/6 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +12.0 | 25% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs MIA | 27 | 28.41 | -5% | 10 | 3/9 | 1/2 | 2/7 | 2/2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +25.0 | 51% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs MIA | 29 | 24.63 | +17.7% | 18 | 6/13 | 2/3 | 4/10 | 2/2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -22.0 | 65% |
| 2026-03-24 | vs ORL | 33 | 23.98 | +37.6% | 19 | 6/11 | 4/5 | 2/6 | 5/6 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +4.0 | 70% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ NOP | 32 | 21.93 | +45.9% | 15 | 5/9 | 2/2 | 3/7 | 2/2 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +5.0 | 76% |
| 2026-03-19 | @ CHI | 31 | 21.34 | +45.3% | 13 | 5/12 | 2/4 | 3/8 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1.0 | 54% |
| 2026-03-17 | @ MIL | 28 | 22.5 | +24.4% | 17 | 6/12 | 3/4 | 3/8 | 2/2 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +22.0 | 66% |
| 2026-03-11 | @ ORL | 30 | 27.39 | +9.5% | 13 | 5/8 | 3/3 | 2/5 | 1/2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1.0 | 73% |
| 2026-03-09 | vs PHI | 21 | 27.93 | -24.8% | 2 | 1/6 | 1/1 | 0/5 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +5.0 | 17% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS18.8%9/48 games
10+ REBOUNDS2.1%1/48 games
5+ ASSISTS12.5%6/48 games
2+ THREES77.1%37/48 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | CLE | 65 | 47.8 | #136 / 409 | 16.4M | Core |
| 2024–25 | CLE | 75 | 41.7 | #240 / 422 | 10.7M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | CLE | 71 | 44.3 | #181 / 409 | 12.4M | Rotation |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER47.8descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#136of 409 ranked
PH$16.4MCore
SAMPLE65observed games
Ball security74
Box defence12
Creation44
Efficiency74
Rebounding11
Scoring41
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+25.5 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+23.7 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-3.9 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY33+0.1 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
CLE
Cleveland Cavaliers
EXPECTED MIN18.0
SCORING SHARE10.4%
CREATION SHARE7.7%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR66.8%
-1.08 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 17 normal-load / 4 nonparticipation games.