Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Jake LaRavia
Los Angeles Lakers current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER35.02025–26
NBA RANK#328of 409
PH$8.9MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN0.0governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Golden State Warriors2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACTWithheldteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN24.9
PTS8.1
REB4.0
AST1.8
STL1.2
BLK0.5
3PM0.9
FG%46.3%
3P%31.8%
FT%74.8%
+/--0.1
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Los Angeles Lakers
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED29.07pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G4 PTS · 3.4 REB · 1.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G4.6 PTS · 3.8 REB · 1.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G5 PTS · 4.2 REB · 1.1 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G5 PTS · 3.7 REB · 1.4 AST
creation↓
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↑
scoring↓
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS44.3%546/1234
2-POINT53.0%335/632
3-POINT35.0%211/602
FREE THROW75.0%279/372
EFFECTIVE FG%52.8%
TRUE SHOOTING%56.6%
AST / TO1.62
PTS PER 3612.55rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 109 | 20.75 | 7.32 | 3.48 | 1.78 | 0.9 | 0.84 | 0.32 |
| Away | 106 | 21.47 | 7.4 | 3.63 | 1.71 | 1.07 | 1.03 | 0.4 |
| Home − Away | — | -0.7 | -0.1 | -0.1 | +0.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1.74 | high |
| minutes | 13 | 22 | 29 | 21.11 | medium |
| points | 2 | 6 | 12 | 7.36 | high |
| rebounds | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3.55 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES52.3% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS10.5%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | vs PHX | 31 | 28.01 | +10.7% | 2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +11.0 | 100% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ GSW | 31 | 25.54 | +21.4% | 16 | 6/7 | 2/2 | 4/5 | 0/0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | +29.0 | 114% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs OKC | 20 | 26.69 | -25.1% | 2 | 1/7 | 1/3 | 0/4 | 0/2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -19.0 | 13% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ OKC | 33 | 25.29 | +30.5% | 6 | 3/10 | 3/8 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -15.0 | 30% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs CLE | 38 | 21.64 | +75.6% | 14 | 5/5 | 3/3 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +23.0 | 119% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs WAS | 28 | 20.38 | +37.4% | 4 | 2/3 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +23.0 | 67% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs BKN | 18 | 19.08 | -5.7% | 0 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +2.0 | 0% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ IND | 29 | 16.55 | +75.3% | 6 | 3/3 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-23 | @ DET | 29 | 13.57 | +113.7% | 7 | 3/4 | 2/2 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -5.0 | 88% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ ORL | 14 | 14.41 | -2.8% | 0 | 0/5 | 0/2 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9.0 | 0% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS5.1%4/79 games
10+ REBOUNDS1.3%1/79 games
5+ ASSISTS5.1%4/79 games
2+ THREES26.6%21/79 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | LAL | 87 | 35.0 | #328 / 409 | 8.9M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | MEM | 66 | 45.0 | #192 / 422 | 12.3M | Rotation |
| 2023–24 | MEM | 35 | 39.6 | #258 / 409 | 8.5M | Depth |
| 2022–23 | MEM | 35 | 26.2 | #396 / 408 | 5.2M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER35.0descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#328of 409 ranked
PH$8.9MDepth
SAMPLE87observed games
Ball security45
Box defence51
Creation23
Efficiency44
Rebounding34
Scoring19
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE—requires eligible AF-Player + governed role
AF MOVEMENT-34.8 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-23.9 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY—governed What If sample unavailable
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
LAL
Los Angeles Lakers
EXPECTED MIN23.6
SCORING SHARE6.8%
CREATION SHARE6.8%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR87.4%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.