Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Robert Williams III
Portland Trail Blazers current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER59.52025–26
NBA RANK#24of 409
PH$20.5MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN20.3governed role
NEXT GAMEvs Phoenix Suns2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.8 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN17.0
PTS6.3
REB7.0
AST1.0
STL0.6
BLK1.4
3PM0.1
FG%69.4%
3P%38.1%
FT%59.3%
+/-+0.9
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Portland Trail Blazers
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL23minutes
EXPECTED17.46pregame reference
DEVIATION+31.7%expanded minutes
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G7 PTS · 8.4 REB · 1.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G5.8 PTS · 8 REB · 0.2 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G5.1 PTS · 6 REB · 0.7 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G5.4 PTS · 6.2 REB · 0.7 AST
creation↓
efficiency↓
minutes↓
rebounding↑
scoring→
COLD historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS71.8%864/1203
2-POINT72.8%855/1175
3-POINT32.1%9/28
FREE THROW66.3%211/318
EFFECTIVE FG%72.2%
TRUE SHOOTING%72.5%
AST / TO1.57
PTS PER 3613.01rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 128 | 21.76 | 8.1 | 7.76 | 1.66 | 0.05 | 0.76 | 1.61 |
| Away | 129 | 20.19 | 7.06 | 7.06 | 1.23 | 0.02 | 0.76 | 1.71 |
| Home − Away | — | +1.6 | +1.0 | +0.7 | +0.4 | +0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.44 | high |
| minutes | 14.2 | 20 | 27.4 | 20.97 | medium |
| points | 4 | 7 | 11 | 7.58 | high |
| rebounds | 4 | 7 | 11 | 7.41 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES3915.2% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES10.4% of games
10+ ASSISTS10.4%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | vs SAC | 23 | 17.46 | +31.7% | 6 | 3/4 | 3/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +7.0 | 75% |
| 2026-04-10 | vs LAC | 18 | 16.8 | +7.2% | 13 | 4/7 | 2/5 | 2/2 | 3/4 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +25.0 | 74% |
| 2026-04-08 | @ SAS | 13 | 17.11 | -24% | 4 | 2/3 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -11.0 | 52% |
| 2026-04-06 | @ DEN | 23 | 14.48 | +58.8% | 6 | 2/4 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 2/4 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 52% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs NOP | 23 | 12.82 | +79.4% | 6 | 3/5 | 3/5 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +11.0 | 60% |
| 2026-03-31 | @ LAC | 18 | 13.01 | +38.3% | 6 | 3/3 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +22.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs DAL | 11 | 14.63 | -24.8% | 4 | 2/3 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2.0 | 67% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs MIL | 13 | 14.88 | -12.7% | 6 | 2/4 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 2/4 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +4.0 | 52% |
| 2026-03-20 | @ MIN | 17 | 16.44 | +3.4% | 2 | 1/4 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2.0 | 25% |
| 2026-03-18 | @ IND | 21 | 16.36 | +28.4% | 2 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -7.0 | 50% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS0.0%0/55 games
10+ REBOUNDS27.3%15/55 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/55 games
2+ THREES3.6%2/55 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | POR | 55 | 17.0 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 69.4% | 38.1% | 59.3% |
| 2024–25 | POR | 20 | 17.6 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 1.1 | 64.1% | 33.3% | 88.2% |
| 2023–24 | POR | 6 | 19.8 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 0.8 | 65.4% | — | 77.8% |
| 2022–23 | BOS | 35 | 23.5 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 1.4 | 74.7% | 0.0% | 61.0% |
| 2021–22 | BOS | 61 | 29.6 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 2.0 | 73.6% | 0.0% | 72.2% |
| 2020–21 | BOS | 52 | 18.9 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 1.8 | 72.1% | 0.0% | 61.6% |
| 2019–20 | BOS | 28 | 13.3 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 72.6% | — | 64.7% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | POR | 61 | 59.5 | #24 / 409 | 20.5M | Core |
| 2024–25 | POR | 20 | 53.8 | #77 / 422 | 14M | Rotation |
| 2022–23 | BOS | 55 | 56.7 | #40 / 408 | 19.8M | Core |
| 2021–22 | BOS | 79 | 59.2 | #25 / 423 | 25.6M | High Value |
| 2020–21 | BOS | 57 | 64.9 | #11 / 410 | 21.1M | Core |
| 2019–20 | BOS | 50 | 59.0 | #27 / 385 | 17.7M | Core |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER59.5descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#24of 409 ranked
PH$20.5MCore
SAMPLE61observed games
Ball security51
Box defence71
Creation23
Efficiency83
Rebounding92
Scoring26
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+55.5 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+12.4 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGESTABLE+3.0 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY64-0.8 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
POR
Portland Trail Blazers
EXPECTED MIN13.2
SCORING SHARE5.5%
CREATION SHARE4.0%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR71.7%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.