Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Stephen Curry
Golden State Warriors current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
Photo: Erik Drost · Wikimedia Commons · CC BY 2.0
AF-PLAYER58.72025–26
NBA RANK#27of 409
PH$22.2MCore · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN29.6governed role
NEXT GAME@ Los Angeles Lakers2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.4 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN31.1
PTS26.6
REB3.6
AST4.8
STL1.2
BLK0.4
3PM4.4
FG%46.9%
3P%39.2%
FT%92.1%
+/-+2.2
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Golden State Warriors
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL29minutes
EXPECTED12.94pregame reference
DEVIATION+124.1%expanded minutes
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G16.2 PTS · 3.2 REB · 2.8 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G25.2 PTS · 2.6 REB · 4.8 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G8.1 PTS · 1.6 REB · 1.4 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G23.2 PTS · 2.6 REB · 6.2 AST
creation→
efficiency→
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring→
MIXED historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS46.1%3329/7219
2-POINT54.9%1583/2881
3-POINT40.3%1746/4338
FREE THROW92.3%1679/1819
EFFECTIVE FG%58.2%
TRUE SHOOTING%62.9%
AST / TO1.88
PTS PER 3629.52rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 189 | 33.28 | 26.9 | 4.65 | 5.68 | 4.69 | 1.04 | 0.32 |
| Away | 181 | 33.17 | 27.62 | 5.2 | 5.82 | 4.75 | 1.12 | 0.37 |
| Home − Away | — | +0.1 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 3 | 6 | 8 | 5.75 | medium |
| minutes | 30 | 34 | 36.6 | 33.23 | low |
| points | 19 | 27 | 35.2 | 27.25 | medium |
| rebounds | 3 | 5 | 7 | 4.92 | medium |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES5214.1% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES30.8% of games
10+ ASSISTS3810.3%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | @ LAC | 29 | 12.94 | +124.1% | 24 | 7/14 | 3/5 | 4/9 | 6/8 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +13.0 | 69% |
| 2026-04-10 | @ SAC | 27 | 8.75 | +208.4% | 11 | 3/8 | 1/2 | 2/6 | 3/3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -4.0 | 59% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs SAC | 25 | 5.12 | +388.5% | 17 | 5/12 | 1/1 | 4/11 | 3/3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +6.0 | 64% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs HOU | 26 | — | — | 29 | 11/21 | 6/11 | 5/10 | 2/3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +12.0 | 65% |
| 2026-01-28 | @ UTA | 28 | 24.32 | +15.1% | 27 | 7/14 | 3/4 | 4/10 | 9/10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +16.0 | 73% |
| 2026-01-25 | @ MIN | 28 | 30.01 | -6.7% | 26 | 7/18 | 4/8 | 3/10 | 9/9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +16.0 | 59% |
| 2026-01-22 | @ DAL | 34 | 28.66 | +18.6% | 38 | 14/27 | 6/12 | 8/15 | 2/2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -24.0 | 68% |
| 2026-01-20 | vs TOR | 25 | 28.77 | -13.1% | 16 | 6/16 | 4/9 | 2/7 | 2/3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -25.0 | 46% |
| 2026-01-19 | vs MIA | 28 | 30.04 | -6.8% | 19 | 6/13 | 1/3 | 5/10 | 2/2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | +3.0 | 68% |
| 2026-01-17 | vs CHA | 30 | 30.58 | -1.9% | 14 | 6/12 | 4/4 | 2/8 | 0/0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +2.0 | 58% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS71.4%30/42 games
10+ REBOUNDS2.4%1/42 games
5+ ASSISTS50.0%21/42 games
2+ THREES95.2%40/42 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
| Season | Team(s) | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | GSW | 42 | 31.1 | 26.6 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 46.9% | 39.2% | 92.1% |
| 2024–25 | GSW | 67 | 32.2 | 24.5 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 44.6% | 39.6% | 93.5% |
| 2023–24 | GSW | 74 | 32.7 | 26.4 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 45.0% | 40.8% | 92.3% |
| 2022–23 | GSW | 56 | 34.7 | 29.4 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 49.3% | 42.7% | 91.5% |
| 2021–22 | GSW | 63 | 34.5 | 25.4 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 43.5% | 37.9% | 92.3% |
| 2020–21 | GSW | 63 | 34.1 | 32.0 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 48.2% | 42.1% | 91.6% |
| 2019–20 | GSW | 5 | 27.9 | 20.8 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 40.2% | 24.5% | 100.0% |
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | GSW | 44 | 58.7 | #27 / 409 | 22.2M | Core |
| 2024–25 | GSW | 76 | 61.5 | #23 / 422 | 26.8M | High Value |
| 2023–24 | GSW | 75 | 57.3 | #42 / 409 | 24.7M | Core |
| 2022–23 | GSW | 69 | 62.8 | #12 / 408 | 27M | High Value |
| 2021–22 | GSW | 84 | 61.0 | #19 / 423 | 28.2M | High Value |
| 2020–21 | GSW | 65 | 65.5 | #9 / 410 | 27.8M | High Value |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER58.7descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#27of 409 ranked
PH$22.2MCore
SAMPLE44observed games
Ball security66
Box defence35
Creation53
Efficiency69
Rebounding15
Scoring89
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+27.4 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT-1.1 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGESTABLE-1.7 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY65-0.4 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
GSW
Golden State Warriors
EXPECTED MIN20.9
SCORING SHARE22.1%
CREATION SHARE16.5%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR63.3%
+12.34 residual margin pts in the qualified normal-load vs nonparticipation diagnostic · 18 normal-load / 5 nonparticipation games.