Player-safe accepted corpus.
CURRENT NBA ROSTER · PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
Jett Howard
Dallas Mavericks current context with accepted historical evidence kept separate.
AF-PLAYER35.52025–26
NBA RANK#320of 409
PH$6.6MDepth · fictional game currencySTATUSUNSPECIFIEDsource status
EXPECTED MIN3.6governed role
NEXT GAME@ Houston Rockets2026-10-21WHAT IF IMPACT-0.6 ppteam win probability if OUT · model counterfactual2019–20 through 2025–26 window.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
Historical window, not full NBA career.
LATEST COMPLETED SEASON
2025–26
MIN12.7
PTS5.3
REB1.6
AST0.8
STL0.2
BLK0.2
3PM1.0
FG%41.2%
3P%37.3%
FT%94.4%
+/--1.3
NEXT GAME
Current context
2026–27 · Dallas Mavericks
Assigned schedule
MINUTES + FORM
Role-adjusted performance
CURRENT FORM · 2026–27
Waiting for completed player boxscores
ProbHoops will activate Last 5 / Last 10 form only after observed 2026–27 player boxscores exist. No current form label is borrowed from 2025–26.
LATEST OBSERVED REFERENCE · 2025–26
Historical Minutes Intelligence
Expected minutes were frozen before each historical game. Role-Consistent means actual minutes stayed between 75% and 125% of that pregame reference. Low minutes are diagnostic only: ProbHoops does not infer rest, injury or a coaching decision from the box score.
LATEST ACTUAL0minutes
EXPECTED5.83pregame reference
DEVIATION-100%zero minutes reason unknown
LAST 5
ALL OBSERVED5 G0 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT5 G7.2 PTS · 1.4 REB · 0.6 AST
LAST 10
ALL OBSERVED10 G3 PTS · 0.4 REB · 0.2 AST
ROLE-CONSISTENT10 G6.3 PTS · 2.3 REB · 0.7 AST
creation↑
efficiency↑
minutes→
rebounding↓
scoring↑
HOT historical run. This is a descriptive historical reference, not a next-game projection, AF-Player input, availability claim or causal diagnosis.
SPLITS + EFFICIENCY
How the production is built
EFFICIENCY
Shooting, derived from the box score
2PM and 2PA need no source: a two-pointer is a field goal that was not a three. eFG% credits the extra point a three is worth; TS% is the only one of these that accounts for free throws. A rate below its attempt floor is shown as — rather than as a flattering number.
FIELD GOALS39.0%208/534
2-POINT50.8%93/183
3-POINT32.8%115/351
FREE THROW82.5%52/63
EFFECTIVE FG%49.7%
TRUE SHOOTING%51.9%
AST / TO1.7
PTS PER 3614.66rate, not projection
HOME / AWAY
Where the games were played
| Split | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 67 | 9.37 | 3.85 | 1.15 | 0.75 | 0.88 | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| Away | 64 | 12.56 | 5.08 | 1.31 | 0.66 | 0.88 | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| Home − Away | — | -3.2 | -1.2 | -0.2 | +0.1 | 0.0 | +0.0 | -0.1 |
Home minus away, computed only when both sides reach the sample floor. A difference is a measurement, not a home-court effect.
CONSISTENCY
What the average hides
Two players averaging the same points can be 20-21-24 and 5-38-12. Floor, median and ceiling are the 20th / 50th / 80th percentile, linearly interpolated.
| Category | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Mean | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| assists | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.7 | high |
| minutes | 4 | 10 | 17 | 10.93 | high |
| points | 0 | 3 | 9 | 4.45 | high |
| rebounds | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.23 | high |
Percentiles, not minimum and maximum: one exceptional night is not a ceiling.
DOUBLE-DOUBLES
Observed frequency across the corpus
DOUBLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
TRIPLE-DOUBLES00.0% of games
10+ ASSISTS00.0%
10+ BLOCKS00.0%
Observed frequency across the measured corpus, not a forecast. Category probabilities are not multiplied together: production categories are dependent through minutes and role.
GAME LOG · 2025–26
One log, the window you choose
| Date | Opp | MIN | EXP MIN | MIN Δ | PTS | FG | 2P | 3P | FT | OR | DR | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | @ DAL | 5 | 13.82 | -63.8% | 2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.0 | 100% |
| 2026-04-01 | vs ATL | 11 | 14.13 | -22.2% | 4 | 1/5 | 0/3 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -6.0 | 37% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs PHX | 14 | 13.41 | +4.4% | 12 | 4/6 | 2/3 | 2/3 | 2/2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -13.0 | 87% |
| 2026-03-29 | @ TOR | 19 | 13.14 | +44.6% | 9 | 4/8 | 3/5 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -21.0 | 56% |
| 2026-03-26 | vs SAC | 8 | 15.16 | -47.2% | 3 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2.0 | 75% |
| 2026-03-24 | @ CLE | 16 | 15.78 | +1.4% | 5 | 2/4 | 1/1 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -13.0 | 63% |
| 2026-03-23 | vs IND | 16 | 13.18 | +21.4% | 10 | 4/5 | 2/3 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 100% |
| 2026-03-21 | vs LAL | 7 | 14.32 | -51.1% | 3 | 1/3 | 0/2 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +7.0 | 50% |
| 2026-03-19 | @ CHA | 16 | 15.9 | +0.6% | 5 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -24.0 | 83% |
| 2026-03-17 | vs OKC | 20 | 16.55 | +20.8% | 3 | 1/7 | 0/1 | 1/6 | 0/0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -23.0 | 21% |
All E57 box-score columns remain available. E65 adds the frozen expected-minutes reference and deviation without removing any observed box-score field. The table scrolls inside its own region on narrow screens; highlighted rows are double-doubles and the strongest highlight is a triple-double.
HISTORY
Season and milestone evidence
DESCRIPTIVE MILESTONES · 2025–26
How often did the threshold occur?
These are observed historical frequencies, not current model probabilities and not betting lines.
20+ POINTS1.8%1/54 games
10+ REBOUNDS0.0%0/54 games
5+ ASSISTS0.0%0/54 games
2+ THREES25.9%14/54 games
SEASON HISTORY
Regular-season production
AF-PLAYER HISTORY
Season by season
| Season | Team | G | AF-Player | Rank | PH$ | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | ORL | 56 | 35.5 | #320 / 409 | 6.6M | Depth |
| 2024–25 | ORL | 61 | 22.2 | #420 / 422 | 5.4M | Depth |
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency and carries no monetary value: it is not a salary, market value or contract figure, and it is not redeemable or convertible. How PH$ works.
CURRENT / HISTORICAL BOUNDARY
Current context is active. Historical evidence stays historical.
Current roster, literal availability, expected minutes and future-game context come from the governed current product. Historical production and with/without evidence are not rewritten as current-season claims.
Open team profileIMPACT
Rating and role context
AF-PLAYER
Measured production, 2025–26
AF-PLAYER35.5descriptive index, not a win probability
NBA RANK#320of 409 ranked
PH$6.6MDepth
SAMPLE56observed games
Ball security78
Box defence18
Creation37
Efficiency35
Rebounding21
Scoring38
PH$ is a free ProbHoops game currency. It is derived only from measured on-court production and position in that season's distribution. It is not salary, market value, contract value, trade price or betting value. How PH$ works.
E67 · ROLE & ROSTER INTELLIGENCE
Distinct signals, side by side
Value Over Role, AF-Player Movement, Role Change and Star Dependency are separate diagnostics. They do not alter AF-Player, Form, Availability, Game Win or the governed What If scenario.
VALUE OVER ROLE+16.5 ppAF-Player pct − Expected Minutes pct
AF MOVEMENT+21.3 pp2024–25 → 2025–26
ROLE CHANGECONTRACTING-8.8 min vs latest observed MPG
STAR DEPENDENCY36-0.6 pp next-game What If impact
Boundary: Star Dependency is model dependency, not causal truth. Opportunity labels are mechanical screeners, not predictions or personnel recommendations. PH$ remains fictional game currency.
PLAYER IMPACT · 2025–26
Pregame role and with/without context
Role measures are based on information frozen before games. With/without appears only when the historical sample passes the research gate; it does not prove that an absence caused the observed team change.
ORL
Orlando Magic
EXPECTED MIN8.2
SCORING SHARE4.3%
CREATION SHARE3.1%
PARTICIPATION PRIOR62.4%
With/without sample did not qualify for publication.